Overbetting/underbetting

Dopple

Well-Known Member
#1
If I could sustain twice the worst losing streak I have ever had in thirty years of play I should increase my betting level by 2x. By the time I ever hit that worst case bad streak again I will have built up more BR and can sustain an even worse streak.

I had yet to even look at the casino verite manual but it would be nice if it could take my last x hours of play and perform what if calculations. Say run my exact play over again with various spreads.

I guess I just have to get back on the felt, put it on the line and see how bad I get bit.

I just know I am headed for a fall.
 
#3
Outcome is Known

over 2x kelly you go broke
2x kelly bank does not grow
kelly maximizes expected growth

1.5 kelly same growth rate as .5 kelly but .5 kelly has far less variance:joker::whip:

.5kelly has 75% the growth rate of kelly
 

Sucker

Well-Known Member
#4
It has been mathematically proven that if you consistently bet 2x Kelly, you are 100% certain to go broke at some point in the future.
 

Renzey

Well-Known Member
#5
am19psu said:
The Kelly Criterion is your friend. :grin:
Suppose your maximum bet is normally $150, and your ramp reaches that at +4 true. The fella next to you takes out a marker for $500 and goes all in with it at a neutral count. He's dealt 11 against a 6, but has no chips. You try to double for him with your money, at which he says, "Nice try -- but I'm going to take out another marker." The pit advises him that he's reached his credit limit. At that point his friend offers to loan him $200 -- that's it, leaving up to $300 open for you.

While all this is being decided, you get another idea and offer to save all the red tape and just buy his hand outright for $600 cash -- getting him out of the situation with a guaranteed $100 net profit. Then you can put up another $500 of your own on a $1000 hand with a +33% EV (reduced to 21% because of the overlay you paid to buy the initial 11).
It's an advantage that's equal to a true count of +43!-- but -- you'd be betting seven times your normal max. Should you go that far??

It would seem that since Kelly says to bet in proportion to your advantage, and your advantage is about eleven times as great as when you normally bet $150, then seven times that amount is a good move. Have I missed anything??
 
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