Paradox in blackjack during a high count?

C

CSUF_gambler

Member
Hi, i've been reading up on blackjack and blackjack counting. There is a strategy/concept that i am a little confused about.

During a high count there are some deviations from basic strategy that should be made, i understand that. One of these is when you are holding a 16 vs. a dealers 9 or 10. Now a high count dictates that you should NOT hit your 16 because since there are more high cards(10's) in the shoe, you are more likely to bust. Again, i understand this. However, here is the part i don't understand. Since the count is high and there are more high cards in the shoe, wouldn't it also make sense that there is a higher probability that the dealers hole card is also a highcard(10), making him a 19 or a 20? And that would mean that we SHOULD hit our 16, right?

So if we hit, we are more likely to bust our hand. but on the other hand, if we don't hit, the dealer is more likely to have a strong hand so we are more likely to lose the hand anyways! WTF??!?

This is the paradox in which i do not understand. Are we just taking the lesser of 2 evils by standing on our 16?
 
Yes, you are taking the lesser of 2 evils. You are expected to lose whether you stand or hit just that you lose less if you stand.
 
Paradox

This is why strategy's also say, if in this situation, to surrender.

Sure you still lose money but you don't lose as much.
 
The other flip side of standing with 16v10 is that if the dealer, miraculously, does not have a pat hand, then the chance of a bust is even huger than normal in a high count.

But again, we're talking about win rates in the 20% range no matter what, so it's nothing to write home about.
 
The Whole concept behind advantage play is when the count is up the dealer will bust more often. Because they have to hit to 17 this increases their chances of busting more. So we stand on a 16 hopeing the dealer will bust when the is high.
 
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