Pecentages related to sequential losses

[Traveler]

Would someone compensate for my lack of skill in math.
What would be the percentage factor of a loss of one hand in a row when
considering a person using perfect BS.Is it 53%?
What then would be for two in a row then three, four, and five.
Yes I know this is fifth grade math,but your help would be appreciated.
Thank you in advance.

 

[positiveEV]

Probability of one occurance to the power of the number of occurances.

If I take your example:

.53 = Probability of 1 occurance
(.53)^2 = Probability of 2 occurances in a row
(.53)^3 = Probability of 3 occurances in a row

etc...

 

[Mikeaber]

For what it's worth AND be sure and read Cardcounter's reply below this one. My last statement on the "reading" of the table is not correct.

Here are the numbers I've used to roughly figure out the odds on consecutive hands. This is an OLD table I picked up somewhere and haven't checked it. But I think it is close enough to give you a picture of what the probabilities are for consecutive wins or loses. Actually, I think the 47% figure stated below includes pushes.

The odds on winning any given hand are 47.5% and loosing it are 52.5%
Here are odds on any streak occurring:

2 ------ .2304 ------ 1 vs 3
3 ------ .1106 ------ 1 vs 8
4 ------ .0531 ------ 1 vs 18
5 ----- .0255 ------ 1 vs 38
6 ------ .0122 ------ 1 vs 81
7 ------ .0059 ------ 1 vs 168
8 ------ .0028 ------ 1 vs 356
9 ------ .0014 ------ 1 vs 713
10 ------ .0006 ------ 1 vs 1666
11 ------ .0003 ------ 1 vs 3332
12 ------ .0001 ------ 1 vs 9999

To "read" this, if you have lost 2 in a row, the odds are 1:8 that you will lose the next hand.

 

[Cardcounter]

Wrong!

If you have lost two hands in a row the odds are not .53^3=.1488 the odds of losing the third hand is .53%. Just because you lost the last two hands doesn't change your odds on the third one. True the probility of losing 3 hands in a row is 14.88% but that is before you start your first hand.
The odds of losing 5 hands in a row is 4.18% however if you have already lost 4 hands in a row the probilitly of losing the next hand is .53% the same as losing 1 hand in a row. The immediate past has no real barring on if you will win or lose throwing out what cards have been played.

 

[Mikeaber]

Right

If you have lost two hands in a row the odds are not .53^3=.1488 the odds of losing the third hand is .53%. Just because you lost the last two hands doesn't change your odds on the third one. True the probility of losing 3 hands in a row is 14.88% but that is before you start your first hand.
The odds of losing 5 hands in a row is 4.18% however if you have already lost 4 hands in a row the probilitly of losing the next hand is .53% the same as losing 1 hand in a row. The immediate past has no real barring on if you will win or lose throwing out what cards have been played.

"Right" Meaning I agree with you Cardcounter. The table is set up to provide the odds on losing "X" hands in a row starting with the next hand. I stated the "read" incorrectly, though it is hard not to read it the way I stated when you are just using BS and you've lost 3 in a row. That's how progressions are born! BTW, I haven't played a progression on anything other than a simulator in Years!

 

[Kasi]

Here are odds on any streak occurring:

Kind of obviously the odds of winning x in a row are not the same as losing x in a row. And after 3-5 wins or losses, the odds start getting farther and farther from each other.

If anything, ur table looks like it's a table of win streaks rather than losing streaks.

And, to me, win streaks or losing streaks would not ignore ties. But each to his own.