Plan of attack - signoff requested
- Thread starter Lowrider
- Start date
UK-21
Well-Known Member
Bit puzzled. If your spread is 1-8, isn't 8 units at TC+4+ = $200 ?
Have you calculated your +EV, $$$s wise? I ask, as 1-8 spread on our games here in the UK will just about break even. It should be better on the ruleset you've detailed, but I'd be interested to know by how much (the no hole card rule in the UK and Europe adds 0.11% to the HE).
Have you calculated your +EV, $$$s wise? I ask, as 1-8 spread on our games here in the UK will just about break even. It should be better on the ruleset you've detailed, but I'd be interested to know by how much (the no hole card rule in the UK and Europe adds 0.11% to the HE).
Lonesome Gambler
Well-Known Member
With a $10K bank, you can't afford $25 (or $20) minimum bets. If you insist on playing this game, wong into positive counts and wong out when the count dips below neutral.
I agree. At most places the only negative would be having to play H17, but with a $160 max, your spread would increase to 1-16.
Lowrider
Well-Known Member
The $10 game available to me has a HE around .66% which is more than double the HE of the $25 game. The $10 game is HIT 17 NOSUR 8 decks 1.5 dcks cutoff. It is a MUCH worse game. In addition, it is an EXTREMELY SLOW game and I bet I'd get dealt about 40% hands LESS an hour on the $10. Generally always at least 4 to 6 players in the $10 game. Average players in $25 game is 2 or 3 total and often I'm the only player.
I really DO NOT want to discuss which game to play.
My intent of this post is really to confirm that the game I choose with a $25 min and $10K spread has about a 13.5% RoR if play until either bust or NO? This is what BJ ATTACK indicates. Can someone please confirm this?
I really DO NOT want to discuss which game to play.
My intent of this post is really to confirm that the game I choose with a $25 min and $10K spread has about a 13.5% RoR if play until either bust or NO? This is what BJ ATTACK indicates. Can someone please confirm this?
Lowrider
Well-Known Member
The $200 bet at TC 4 is for the 1 to 16 spread
Lowrider
Well-Known Member
I'm using the chart for the game with the rules explained above on page 241 of the 3rd Ed. of BJ ATTACK...$10k bankroll is assumed
For the PLAY ALL PRACTICAL 1 to 8 the following ramp is used...
TC < 1 = $20
TC 1 = $50
TC 2 = $75
TC 3 = $125
TC 4 => $160
Well, I can't bet $20 as it's below the table minimum. So I'd have to increase the $20 bet to $25. AND I WOULD ALSO DECREASE THE MAX BET TO $150.
Will this have a SIGNIFICANT affect on my strategy and RoR? Am I still looking at a RoR of around 13.5% by changing the min bet from $20 to $25 and the max bet from $160 to $150.
For the PLAY ALL PRACTICAL 1 to 8 the following ramp is used...
TC < 1 = $20
TC 1 = $50
TC 2 = $75
TC 3 = $125
TC 4 => $160
Well, I can't bet $20 as it's below the table minimum. So I'd have to increase the $20 bet to $25. AND I WOULD ALSO DECREASE THE MAX BET TO $150.
Will this have a SIGNIFICANT affect on my strategy and RoR? Am I still looking at a RoR of around 13.5% by changing the min bet from $20 to $25 and the max bet from $160 to $150.
Sure it does. You now play at a spread of 1-6, not your desired 1-8.
Also, with increased unit bet your RoR is higher for a given bankroll.
and what would happen in simply wong in it with a flat bet of 40-50 on all counts plus 3 and higher?
FLASH1296
Well-Known Member
Advice, unsolicited and otherwise.
Your issues are your anemic bankroll size and your conservative bet spread.
The only "fix" is an influx of capital.
That being said, I certainly understand that that is a vexing problem for most peeps.
I cannot urge you strongly enough to cease and desist from playing BJ while you work on securing funds.
Playing BJ while undercapitalized, is the primary reason why most neophyte card counters F A I L.
Be wise. Do not court abject failure. Forewarned is forearmed.
Meanwhile, while waiting to find a proper bankroll, you would do well to learn a stronger count, e.g. ZEN.
Your issues are your anemic bankroll size and your conservative bet spread.
The only "fix" is an influx of capital.
That being said, I certainly understand that that is a vexing problem for most peeps.
I cannot urge you strongly enough to cease and desist from playing BJ while you work on securing funds.
Playing BJ while undercapitalized, is the primary reason why most neophyte card counters F A I L.
Be wise. Do not court abject failure. Forewarned is forearmed.
Meanwhile, while waiting to find a proper bankroll, you would do well to learn a stronger count, e.g. ZEN.
Lowrider
Well-Known Member
OK, let me ask one simple question:
What bankroll must I have to bet a spread of 1 to 8 in the game with the rules noted above to maintain about a 13.5% RoR OR LESS? I will play until bankroll is gone or I double it.
Spread will be as follows....
TC less than 1 = $25
TC 1 = $50
TC 2 = $100
TC 3 = $150
TC 4 = $200
What bankroll must I have to bet a spread of 1 to 8 in the game with the rules noted above to maintain about a 13.5% RoR OR LESS? I will play until bankroll is gone or I double it.
Spread will be as follows....
TC less than 1 = $25
TC 1 = $50
TC 2 = $100
TC 3 = $150
TC 4 = $200
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psyduck
Well-Known Member
I do not have indices for the S17 condition. I used my HiLo indices for H17 along with other conditions from your first post and obtained the following results (playing all):
ROR is 28% for $10,000 bank.
ROR is 13% for $16,000 bank.
FLASH1296
Well-Known Member
With an 8-1 spread you will not live long enough to rationally
expect to double your bankroll, even if you are < 1 year old.
Your spread should be 16-1. 8-1 will NOT cut it.
Without crunching the numbers, I'm going to hazard a guess ... (presuming you live >300 years),
that your 8-1 spread will require your (green chip) bankroll to be > $18,000.
The problem, as I see it, is not so much the Risk of Ruin, but your low E.V.
Jack_Black
Well-Known Member
Incorrect. Don S. says play all practical 1-8 will need 500 units or a BR of $12,500 and gives about 25,000 N0. ROR is 14.3%
what?
$15,000. but 1-8 is a terrible spread for this game. SCORE 37 N0 26,000
Lowrider
Well-Known Member
Flash, do you have any indisputable facts or references you can point to that back up your contentions? Or will you just continue waxing asinine, useless sludge on my topic. I'd appreciate it if you refrained on commenting on any of my topics in the future. To this end, you are THE charter member of my IGNORE LIST -- GOOD-FUC$&$G-BYE -- You remind me oh so much of the litany of alarmists that are oh so quick to point out that the building is on fire. No s*hit the building is on fire, how about offering a logical, helpful solution on how to put the fire out.
Don S. BJ ATTACK includes a SCORE of 40 for 1-8 spread on the S17 game I am going to play....a 1-16 spread on the alternative H17 lower minimum game has an extremely inferior SCORE of 24.
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UK-21
Well-Known Member
This is a regular conundrum, with several inter-related dynamics. I don't think it's necessary to dissect the numbers to the nth degree.
Big question, I think, is whether losing your $10K bankroll is critical or not? If not, then it's a judgement call as to whether you want to play with a 13.5%, 28% (whatever) RoR or not. If you can't afford to lose it, then the consenus here is that the 1-8 spread you're proposing, and the +EV that drops out of it, doesn't justify the RoR.
What value does $10,000 represent to you?
If it's your life savings, don't do it. If it's a month's pocket money, and you'll have another $10K next month, why not? You don't need sanction from anyone here to to it.
If the decision point for doing it, or not doing it, is whether the RoR = 13.5% RoR or not, why is this so important? I think that's something contributors here are puzzled about.
Big question, I think, is whether losing your $10K bankroll is critical or not? If not, then it's a judgement call as to whether you want to play with a 13.5%, 28% (whatever) RoR or not. If you can't afford to lose it, then the consenus here is that the 1-8 spread you're proposing, and the +EV that drops out of it, doesn't justify the RoR.
What value does $10,000 represent to you?
If it's your life savings, don't do it. If it's a month's pocket money, and you'll have another $10K next month, why not? You don't need sanction from anyone here to to it.
If the decision point for doing it, or not doing it, is whether the RoR = 13.5% RoR or not, why is this so important? I think that's something contributors here are puzzled about.
Just play the $3 table until you figure out 25 * 16 =/= 200.
Why not just spread from $10-$160? If you don't like the table, find a different one, they never close. If I were you I'd listen to Flash's "useless sludge" and either save up the BR, find a game you can afford, or stick to keno.
Why not just spread from $10-$160? If you don't like the table, find a different one, they never close. If I were you I'd listen to Flash's "useless sludge" and either save up the BR, find a game you can afford, or stick to keno.
kewljason
Well-Known Member
You have some freaking nerve! You come on here asking for advise and then go off like a 10 year old when you hear something you don't like. :sad: Flash is a very experienced player who has taken the time to respond to you and give his advise and opinion (of which you asked). I don't always agree with him, and this actually one of those times. I think he sometimes exaggerates a bit and paints a more than necessary dreary picture for effect. Probably in an effort to protect the new player, in this case from what he considers a poor plan of attack and one that wouldn't be worth his time and effort.
This site is about sharing experiences and learning from other and attacks like this, because you hear something you don't like only make those who do know a little something want to participate even less and unfortunately that that hurts everyone who visits this site still trying to increase his knowledge and improve his game, myself included. So please, grow the F*** up and act like an adult.
BJgenius007
Well-Known Member
If I were you, I would spread:
TC less than 1 = $25
TC 1 = $50
TC 2 = $125
TC 3 = $250
TC 4 = max bet $400/$450
This spread will make you $50 per hour if you use level 1 counting system or $75 per hour if you use level 2. Your first proposal will lose you money. Your second proposal will make you less than $25 per hour.