Planning a trip to Vegas to win big money at blackjack: Unless I'm missing something

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Dashofpepper

New Member
Hey folks!

I read an article recently that said that Caesar's Palace had raised their table maximum to $50,000 - with the minimum being $15. I don't know anything about card counting - my previous casino trips have all been roulette, where I've made a few thousand dollars playing a losing progression on black/red.

I've got a blackjack program for my Droid, and that's the limit of my blackjack experience, so don't flay me too badly when I boast that I've raked in tremendous amounts of money at it. Based on that experience, I've been contemplating a trip to Vegas to go to Caesar's Palace with the following conditions:

I take $64,000 with me, so that I can play a losing progression from $25 to $50,000. IE, I start betting at $25. Every hand I lose, I double my bet (mostly) such that I'm betting $25, $50, $100, $200, $500, $1000, $2000, $5000, $10,000, $20,000, $50,000. Every hand I win, I reset my bet back to $25.

It seems incredibly unlikely to me that I would lose 11 hands of blackjack in a row.

So a few questions.

1. What am I missing?

2. Is this realistic?

3. Can anyone verify that the table stakes *are* indeed $15-50,000? I haven't done this before because table stakes are always set to nuke a losing progression after 4-6 rounds.

4. Would this get me in trouble in a casino?
 
moo321

moo321

Well-Known Member
It won't get you in trouble. You'll probably have to switch tables to go from a $15 min to a $50k max. And, this is a bad idea.

You will likely have small winning sessions, and then one giant loss of all your money. For the love of everything good and holy, just learn to count.
 
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paddywhack

Well-Known Member
Won't get into too much detail here as the progressionist discussions have been many - you will lose if you keep it up.

#1 - Missing most everything necessary to win at BJ
#2 - Not realistic at all
#3 - CBJN from Jan 11 shows a table at Caesars with limits from $5000-$50000, not $15-$50000.
#4 - If you do this progression from $5000 up to $50000 they will welcome you with open arms.
 
Southpaw

Southpaw

Well-Known Member
You will lose 15+ hands in a row about once every 300 hours. For anyone that is serious about advantage-play, this is a short time-frame. You will lose 11+ hands in a row much more frequently than this.

Don't do it.

Simply calculate the probability of winning your progression series and multiply this by the amount of money that you win and subtract from this the probability that you lose the progression times the money that you'd lose, and this should tell you whether it has a favorable outcome. Of course, it will not be favorable, though.

(Probability of winning Progression Series)(Money Won) - (Probability of Losing Progression Series)(Money Lost)

SP
 
2

21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
I recently lost 15 hands in a row several times in 1 week. I'm sure I lost 11 hands in a row several more times that week. I'm still playing because I wasn't playing a progression. Progressions are stupid! Don't do it! It's not worth losing $64,000 over! If you really just want to throw your money away, PM me when you get enough posts and I'll give you my address so you can just mail me a check for $64,000.
 
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apex

Well-Known Member
It seems incredibly unlikely to me that I would lose 11 hands of blackjack in a row.
Click to expand...
This is true, it is quite unlikely that you would lose 11 hands in a row. You would have a very good chance of winning thousands of dollars, and a small chance of losing $64,000. Depending on how long you play, the numbers will work out something like this:

90% chance of winning $3000
10% chance of losing $64,000

Expected value

.9 * 3000 = 2700
.1 * -64000 = -6400

EV -3,700

This example was just made up and the math is incorrect, but the point of it is to show that you are still playing a -EV game. If you have the money to GAMBLE this way and that is what you want to do go for it. Blackjack is a better game than roulette. Learn basic strategy to increase your chances of winning. Even better would be to make a passline or don't pass bet in craps with full odds. You could still run your progression that way and would have an even lower house edge. Whatever you do, you will have a negative expectation unless you learn to count, etc.
 
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BJLFS

Well-Known Member
Though I'm still a neophyte at this I strongly suggest that you

(1) Learn to count.

(2) After that start with a $50 minimum bet since you will have way more than 1000 units so you can weather any sort of negative variance that will will most likely occur.

(3) There is no easy way around this.
 
moo321

moo321

Well-Known Member
BJLFS said:
Though I'm still a neophyte at this I strongly suggest that you

(1) Learn to count.

(2) After that start with a $5 minimum bet since you will have way more than 1000 units so you can weather any sort of negative variance that will will most likely occur.

(3) There is no easy way around this.
Click to expand...
Fixed your post
 
tribute

tribute

Well-Known Member
Dashofpepper said:
Hey folks!

I read an article recently that said that Caesar's Palace had raised their table maximum to $50,000 - with the minimum being $15. I don't know anything about card counting - my previous casino trips have all been roulette, where I've made a few thousand dollars playing a losing progression on black/red.

I've got a blackjack program for my Droid, and that's the limit of my blackjack experience, so don't flay me too badly when I boast that I've raked in tremendous amounts of money at it. Based on that experience, I've been contemplating a trip to Vegas to go to Caesar's Palace with the following conditions:

I take $64,000 with me, so that I can play a losing progression from $25 to $50,000. IE, I start betting at $25. Every hand I lose, I double my bet (mostly) such that I'm betting $25, $50, $100, $200, $500, $1000, $2000, $5000, $10,000, $20,000, $50,000. Every hand I win, I reset my bet back to $25.

It seems incredibly unlikely to me that I would lose 11 hands of blackjack in a row.

So a few questions.

1. What am I missing?

2. Is this realistic?

3. Can anyone verify that the table stakes *are* indeed $15-50,000? I haven't done this before because table stakes are always set to nuke a losing progression after 4-6 rounds.

4. Would this get me in trouble in a casino?
Click to expand...



Just wish I could be there to see it!
 
mwmb

mwmb

Member
Dashofpepper said:
1. What am I missing?
Click to expand...
You are crazy

Learn BS, so at lest you have a edge of somewhere between -.7% to -.3%

Playing a losing progression system wont work on a game where you lose more then 50% of the time.

If you play like you plan to, no casino is going to kick you out

Learn something really simple, if you get a small edge (.2% to .5%) and are putting down large bets, then you might make enough money for food.
 
tribute

tribute

Well-Known Member
Dashofpepper said:
Hey folks!

I read an article recently that said that Caesar's Palace had raised their table maximum to $50,000 - with the minimum being $15. I don't know anything about card counting - my previous casino trips have all been roulette, where I've made a few thousand dollars playing a losing progression on black/red.


?
Click to expand...

Can you post a copy of the article here?
 
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