playing free table play coupon

ohbehave · Oct 29, 2008

I have a $75 one-time bet coupon I have to use by friday.

My preference would be to sit at a $5 table and play it when the count was favorable. However, this property doesn't have $5 tables except on rare occasion. So I'm trying to decide how to play the coupon.

Sit at a $10 table that I'm not really comfortable doing yet or play a different game. I'm thinking either the dealer bet at baccarat or red/black on roulette.

How would you play it in my situation?

standard toaster · Oct 29, 2008

odds bet in craps is your best bet
its the best bet in the house and should always be your one time hit

Sonny · Oct 29, 2008

Is the coupon only good on even money bets? If so, go with the odds bet like ST mentioned above. If not, betting a single number at roulette will give you most of the value from the coupon.

-Sonny-

sagefr0g · Oct 29, 2008

Sonny said:

i'd love to hear the reasoning behind that, in simple enough terms that even i could understand.

Sonny · Oct 29, 2008

sagefr0g said:

Basically the casino is giving you a free shot. You generally want to look for the opportunity that has the highest positive variance. It costs you nothing to play so you might as well shoot for the stars! Think of it this way: Would you rather flip a coin for a chance to win $1 (but lose nothing) or would you rather have a free lottery ticket? Depending on the payout structure, the lottery probably has the better EV.

-Sonny-

sagefr0g · Oct 29, 2008

Sonny said:

thank you Sonny. not trying to be argumentative just a further consideration.
i mean i know with coupons there is some maths advantage (per Grosjean).
kind of it's beyond me the how and why of it. and i guess above you tryed and simplified the reasoning to where i could understand it (i appreciate that). i don't doubt the maths even if i haven't went to the point of understanding it.
thing is consider this argument which is how i used to look at it. please if you willl point out the flaw in my reasoning and maybe i'll see the light, lol.
like when i had a lot of opportunities to play match plays, i always chose blackjack. basically for the simple reason that the house edge was lowest for blackjack compared to any other game in the house. i didn't look at losing the coupon as costing me nothing, i looked at it as my money, lol. (at the time i had a rather steady flow of them). back in the day, i was able to get a total of $200 per month in match play tokens that came in $25 increments. well anyway what i'd do is try and bet a token or two when the advantage was high. so but anyway if i imagine betting one of those tokens on some number on the roulette wheel or on odds in craps i find it difficult to separate the act of doing so with match plays as opposed to using 'my' paid for chips.

Sonny · Oct 29, 2008

sagefr0g said:

That’s the issue right there. The coupon isn’t money. By itself it isn’t worth anything. It’s just a piece of paper. You have to look at its value. It only has value when you use it. The way you decide to use it will determine its value.

If some guy offers to buy it for $5 then its present value is $5. If you plan to use the coupon at blackjack then you will lose it a little more than half the time. That gives the coupon a value of about half of its denomination (around $12.50 for a $25 coupon). If you bring that same coupon to the roulette table and bet on a single number then its value jumps to about 92% of its face value (about $23 for a $25 coupon). You’ve almost doubled the value of your coupon! Instead of losing half of it you are keeping almost all of it. That means 92% of that coupon really is “your” money until the ball lands.

sagefr0g said:

The difference is that you didn’t pay for the coupon, and you can’t just cash it in. When you buy a $25 chip it has an assumed $25 value because you can (presumably) redeem it at any time for $25 in cash. If you lose it at roulette, you just lost $25 of your money. The coupon did not cost anything and it cannot be cashed in, it must be wagered. Therefore its value is determined by how you use it.

-Sonny-

callipygian · Oct 29, 2008

sagefr0g said:

Here is the flaw in your reasoning.

The house edge for blackjack is low, but it is not because you win very frequently. It is because you tend to win more when you win. If you were forbidden from doubling or splitting, the house edge on blackjack would be very large - 7% or so. It is because you can put more money down on good hands that your house edge shrinks to 0.5%.

If you put down $1 on a hand of blackjack, you're going to lose that $1 about 49% of the time, and only win money about 43% of the time (the remainder is pushed). So if you lose your coupon whether you win, push, or lose (which is often the case), blackjack only gives you a 43% value. If you get to keep the coupon if you push, you'll have a 0.43/(1-0.06) = 46% value.

Compare that with craps, for which the house edge is larger, but the low house edge is because of a very high winning percentage - the probability of pushing is only 3% on don't pass, so you have a winning percentage of 48% and a losing percentage of 49%. Your coupon now has 48% of its face value if you lose it on a push, and 49% of its value if you keep it on a push.

If you're restricted to even-money bets only (which I believe are the most popular by far), don't pass in craps is the best bet because it has the highest winning percentage. Blackjack presents multiple problems:

(1) If you get a blackjack with an even money coupon, you may only get paid even money on it.

(2) Basic strategy for doubling and splitting change with coupon play (see Grosjean's treatise on coupons and funny chips for details).

(3) Your winning percentage is lower than that of craps.

FLASH1296 · Oct 29, 2008

Best play is ...

... betting on "bank" at baccarat.

That is because the bank bet wins nearly 52% of the time.

The edge that the house has is a remarkably low 1.16%, and that is due entirely to the 5% "commission" taken from your winnings. If you bet $75 and win you will receive $75 minus the 5% commission, so your net gain is $71.25

So ... If your goal is to find the most likely winning play, this is the clear choice as no other casino bet wins over 50% of the time.

FLASH1296 · Oct 29, 2008

"Beyond Coupons" by James Grosjean, etc. etc.

This excellent work by mathematician/pro-gambler James Grosjean, may be download from me:

"Beyond Coupons"

(Dead link: http://www.mediafire.com/?ey6uettmk3l)

Here are two other interesting things to read:

"Scavenger Blackjack"

(Dead link: http://www.mediafire.com/?99sgyzlnnef)

"Blackjack_Interview with Al Francesco"

(Dead link: http://www.mediafire.com/?bycjnzd4nmx)

ohbehave · Oct 29, 2008

FLASH1296 said:

Thats what I thought but I wanted to see if anyone would recommend it. (I meant banker bet instead of dealer bet in the OP)

Don't Pass at craps also looks like a good one-time bet but I'm intimidated just standing near a craps table.

I'll probably go with bacarrat. I enjoy watching the asians play anyway. They have a lot of fun.

InPlay · Oct 29, 2008

ohbehave said:

I have a $75 one-time bet coupon I have to use by friday.

My preference would be to sit at a $5 table and play it when the count was favorable. However, this property doesn't have $5 tables except on rare occasion. So I'm trying to decide how to play the coupon.

Sit at a $10 table that I'm not really comfortable doing yet or play a different game. I'm thinking either the dealer bet at baccarat or red/black on roulette.

How would you play it in my situation?

Are your cupons at the MGM in Detroit ?

bjcount · Oct 29, 2008

ohbehave said:

Got a $200 free bet, I dont know anything about baccarat. I think I'll wait for a good ol' fashion high count shoe. Maybe I'll get two aces to split and pull a ten for each.

:band: dream a little dream for me, rose ma'rie :band:

BJC

FLASH1296 · Oct 29, 2008

hmmm

You said:

"Got a $200 free bet, I dont know anything about baccarat. I think I'll wait for a good ol' fashion high count shoe. Maybe I'll get two aces to split and pull a ten for each."

For your BJ True Count to be high enough where you will actually win, on average, >50% of the time is virtually impossible. At the upper ranges you get a lot of 20 vs. 20 pushes.

The advantage that you have on high true counts are due to your better results with double downs and splits and the incresed chances of getting a BJ or a 20. It is not from winning more hands than you lose.

Where are you getting these "free bets" from ?

I assume you mean free and not match play or funny money or whatever.

bjcount · Oct 29, 2008

FLASH1296 said:

Correct - Free Bet.
Isn't that what I said above, "SPLIT Aces". Thats the AP.
Your correct about the 20v20 at high counts, so TC+6 is too high and besides you may only see those once every 20hrs of play (RPC w- 1/2DTC).

Would have to use a bit of AP footwork, ST with eye balls on the clumped Aces.
How many times have you watched 10-12 Aces come out in a 50-70 card slug?
I had it happen numerous times over the past few weeks, but of course it doesn't mean it will happen again. I'll be patient.
I'll give it my best shot and cut to the high Ace slug.

Will PM the other details

BJC

Guynoire · Oct 30, 2008

As Sonny said if you can use the coupon on any bet you can increase the expected value by increasing your variance. Personally I think the 4 number bet in roulette is better. It's expected value is only slightly less and it's variance is much lower.

If the coupon limits you to even-money bets only I'd take the other extreme and eliminate all variance by hedging your bets. The simplest way would bet to bet the coupon on red at roulette, 37 of live money on black, and 1 dollar on each of the zeroes. This basically turns your coupon into a 35 dollar bill. Craps pass/don't pass is slightly better for this but probably harder to do because most pit bosses get really pissed when you hedge your bets, so try to do it when they're not looking. Some people bribe the dealers with a tip when they hedge their coupon but I never do.

callipygian · Oct 30, 2008

ohbehave said:

It's really not that intimidating, and craps can be a very fun (and very social) game.

The best way to learn is to show up at a Vegas casino in the morning around 10-11am. They usually give lessons.

sagefr0g · Oct 30, 2008

i appreciate the explainations with regard to the match play bets.
i guess another part of the issue is risk as far as losing the coupon.
how does risk of losing the coupon compare for the various choices of games one might contemplate?

InPlay · Oct 30, 2008

sagefr0g said:

It's free so who cares. Take a shot. It's free. Get it it's free. NO RISK ! FREE FREE FREE !!!!!!!!! :laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:

sagefr0g · Oct 31, 2008

InPlay said:

lol, your right but you don't know how cheap, really really cheap a certain somebody is. :laugh::whip::laugh::whip::laugh::whip:

playing free table play coupon

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