Playing Multiple Hands in Negative Counts: Question for Mayor

#1
In Ken Uston's classic work Million Dollar Blackjack, the author proposes some revolutionary methods of getting the advantage over the house. One of these methods is playing multiple hands in negative counts(aka card eating effect).

On page 153, Uston states as follows:

"You've just bet 4 greens and 2 reds and won the hand. The count has dropped. Spread to 2 hands of 2 red each-or even 3 hands. You've cut your bet way down and your eating up cards in this negative situation. Again, the dealer is pushed more rapidly toward the shuffle and you will tend to be dealt fewer negative hands."

I can see how playing multiple hands per round will reach the shuffle card faster. What I do NOT understand is how
the player will be dealt fewer negative hands for the shoe.
In anything, wouldnt he be dealt MORE negative hands for the shoe by playing multiple spots in negative counts?

Here is my reasoning:
Suppose a counter is playing heads up in a 6D shoe game. There are 72 cards left until the shuffle card comes out. Assuming roughly 3 cards are used per hand, playing one spot would require 12 rounds to reach the shuffle card(3 cards/player + 3 cards/dealer = 6 cards/round). So, the player would be dealt 36 cards playing one spot/round or 12 hands.

Now, what if the player decided to play 3 spots in this negative count? Then it would require 6 rounds to reach the shuffle card(1 round = 3 cards/dealer + 3 cards per player hand x 3 hands = 12 cards/round). In the end, the player would be dealt 54 cards playing 3 spots/round or 18 hands.

So, how can Uston conclude playing multiple spots in a negative count will lead you to be dealt fewer negative hands? 18 hands is more then 12 hands!!! Is there really any advantage to this approach? Thanks for any answers.

-MJ
 

Mayor

Well-Known Member
#2
Zengrifter has specialized in this move...

I will ask ZG comment on one aspect of your question. He is a master of a move called the "grifter gambit" that may shed light on this.

Also, there are articles on this in the archives at (for example) www.bj21.com (green chip area) -- card eating in negative decks (shoes) is necessary mostly to speed up the game, not to get fewer hands in negative situations. But the experts have already written extensively about this, so I am not going to add anything new.

Here is a link -- it will cost you a bit to follow it, but it's worth it!

http://www.bj21.com/greenchip/archives/POM/index.cgi?read=9903

--Mayor
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#3
Link to ZG's posts *LINK*

Free advice from the master himself:

(Dead link: http://www.cardcounter.com/best.pl?read=12)

-Sonny-
 
#4
Who has higher SCORE?

Professor Jacobsen, thanks for your response. Is this topic covered in your book ?

My guess is that playing multiple hands(1/3 unit each) in negative/neutral counts will be more profitable then spreading 1-12 units only playing 1 hand at a time.

If a counter spreads vertically from THREE HANDS of $10/each in negative/neutral counts to ONE HAND of $360 in highly positive counts, would he not earn more then a counter who spreads from a single hand of $30 to $360 only placing one bet at a time???

If you do a SCORE comparison of the 2 players above, I reckon the card eating counter would have the higher SCORE. The reason is that his TC frequency for negative counts is drastically reduced by playing multiple hands in negative /neutral counts. Therefore, he is left to play MORE rounds in positive count situations. Does that make sense?

-MJ
 

Mayor

Well-Known Member
#5
You are posting this everywhere

I think you are getting great answers elsewhere. Really, one site is enough, we all read all the sites :cool:

As far as SCORE, because SCORE is normalized to 100 hands per hour, it probably lowers your SCORE. But that is a paradox, because it actually increases your hourly win -- you play more hands!

--Mayor
 
#7
Take a look at this article

Thanks for the response Mayor. Sorry for posting to multiple boards, it is just that some people will not respond to a post if it is not posted on "their" board due to politics.

I did some research on the "grifter gambit" that you mentioned and I found an entire article on this subject. It turns out that Dan Provost ran millions of rounds of simulations on inverse betting and the results agree with what you and several others have been saying. Some have warned to read this with a grain of salt. Anyhow, here is the article:

http://www.bjinsider.com/MemberLogin.php3?loginfile=newsletter_53_inv

Feel free to lend any further comment.

-MJ
 
#9
Grifter's Gambit

Consolidation Betting Revealed

Circa'99 - This one is little known and stems from the theories of Mason Mamulth, 'BJEssays,'85 who is best known for poker and David Skalansky's partner.

It was first sim'd for me by GeoC who, in his own words said "at first I thought Grifter's idea was dumb." The sim-stats speak for themselves and GeoC named the scheme 'The Grifter's Gambit'

The Grifter's Gambit @ 2D

Typical Mirage 2-deck with 65 cards dealt, one player.
ZEN w/80 indices including split 10s.

Betting -
0/minus- 3 hand of 1 unit
TC 1,2 - 1 hand of 3 units
TC 3,4 - 1 hand of 5 units
TC 5+ - 1 hand of 7 units

Per 100 rounds, the sim showed -
a gain of 4.0u with a StDv of 49u.
DI 8.12 Score 62

RoRuin w/$50 units
25% $23K, 20% $27K, 10% $38K, 5% $50K, 1%
$77K.

For a typical 20 hour trip there is a 17% chance of
losing $12K

These numbers can be computed by using either JA's BJRM or Dunbar's Risk Manager. The sim was run on SBA 5.0.

I have applied the technique on and off in juicy DD games including Bellagio, Mirage, TxSta, IP and elsewhere with no heat. Irrespective of my great act, I think that the technique is pretty much off the counter-alert radar screen. I even allude to "my new system" while dealers and PCs alike grimace in disdain as I "chronically wreck the flow of cards after a favorable streak."

Recently I utilized it for hours on-end and repeatedly for several days at Bellagio, while listening to PC and dealer accounts of an on-going counter-purge, spreading
(alternating) oddly from 3x$50 to 1x$350.

I hesitate to include an estimate of just how many neg-decks I might abandon in an hour (the sim assumes NO exiting). I often appear to be closing a "big deal" and must run to the house phone or step back from the table frequently after an imaginary page or a pager/cell phone chirp (Icomplain excessively about the attorneys and associates needing me to hold their hand thru every detail!).

The Grifter's Gambit @ 1D

For a GOOD 1D there can be a virtual flat-bet-amount: -counts bet 3x1u and +counts bet 1x3u - this will yield a similar EV to a traditional 1-4 spread BUT w/higher variance.

Because the min-bet is 3x1u, the comps are much better, btw. zg
 
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