Please critique my play

[Amad99]

I've been playing Single Deck, 75% pen, hit soft 17, NDAS, no surrender, double any 2.. and after 100 hours of play I am down 300 units. My original bankroll was only 500 units, so for now i'm taking a break for a while to let the BR replenish.. In the meantime, i'd like to make necessary changes in my play.

I've been using zen count, using indices from "Black belt in blackjack" by Snyder. This count has been fairly easy for me to use. I only play either heads up or with up to 2 other players on the table in order to get maximum penetration. I've been spreading 1-6, but lately switched to 1-4 as I was losing. I play ALL hands, do not wong in or out, due to only single deck and I don't want to dance around all night, that could be a factor in my losses...

Anyways, any criticism will be welcome, any thoughts of what I can improve? Thanks.

 

[21forme]

This may be a basic question, but it has to be asked - BJ 3:2 or 6:5?

 

[Gamblor]

Well thinking playing heads or up to two players increases your penetration is a mistake, which I'm guessing you didn't mean. Unless your noticing something more subtle and advanced than I am.

 

[Sucker]

I've been spreading 1-6, but lately switched to 1-4 as I was losing.

Why on Earth would you PURPOSELY make it a weaker game, ESPECIALLY if you're losing????

 

[Amad99]

this may be a basic question, but it has to be asked - bj 3:2 or 6:5?

3:2

 

[Amad99]

Well thinking playing heads or up to two players increases your penetration is a mistake, which I'm guessing you didn't mean. Unless your noticing something more subtle and advanced than I am.

So do you suggest playing at a crowded table rather than solo or with few players?

When playing single deck on a full table, I'll get no more than 2 rounds per deck... I feel I'd be wasting my time. However if I'm alone or with few players, I get more rounds in and deeper in the deck because the dealer doesn't have to shuffle due to insufficient cards for the next round... perhaps penetration wouldn't be the big difference, but rather rounds per deck.

 

[Amad99]

Why on Earth would you PURPOSELY make it a weaker game, ESPECIALLY if you're losing????

It was only last night that I played 5 hours with 1-4 spread. I figured that even a 1-3 spread should be sufficient to beat the game I play, and after losing and pushing so many 6 unit max bets, I calmed it down to 4. But for now I've stopped to let the BR build back up and to fix up some tweaks in my game. Thanks for all help.

 

[tthree]

Are you using risk averse indices?

 

[halibut]

Are you quite sure that the pen is 75%? It seems unlikely to me. If it is,
it is quite unlikely that you are down 300 units after 100 hours.

 

[moo321]

300 unit downswing in that game is quite possible. Are you sure you have an edge? You're not making cover plays, and you know you indices? If so, keep playing.

 

[halibut]

According to CVCX, the probability of 300 units down or worse after 100 hours
(assuming 100 rounds/h) is only 0.23%, if the conditions Amad has described are all correct.

 

[Amad99]

Are you quite sure that the pen is 75%? It seems unlikely to me. If it is,
it is quite unlikely that you are down 300 units after 100 hours.

perhaps it isn't 75%, but it looks like it to me. 75% of the deck would be 39 cards, i've seen the dealer use the last card and bust and say "phew good thing I busted or I would've had to shuffle the deck again to get another card"...

really it just depends on the dealer, some dealers go really really deep, some shuffle it up a little earlier.. I'd say if it ain't 75%, it'd be at worst 65%, but I guess that can make a big difference. If I notice a dealer is shuffling really early, or If the count soars into the negatives, I'll usually step away, take a breather and come back or find another table where a dealer wont shuffle so early.

 

[21gunsalute]

It was only last night that I played 5 hours with 1-4 spread. I figured that even a 1-3 spread should be sufficient to beat the game I play, and after losing and pushing so many 6 unit max bets, I calmed it down to 4. But for now I've stopped to let the BR build back up and to fix up some tweaks in my game. Thanks for all help.

I'm not an expert on single deck, but the game you described sounds like a rather poor game to me.

 

[21gunsalute]

According to CVCX, the probability of 300 units down or worse after 100 hours
(assuming 100 rounds/h) is only 0.23%, if the conditions Amad has described are all correct.

Are you sure about that? I find that hard to believe. It's only down 3 units/hour. It's very possible to lose 300 units in 1 hour of play.

 

[The Chaperone]

Are you sure about that? I find that hard to believe. It's only down 3 units/hour. It's very possible to lose 300 units in 1 hour of play.

Losing 50 max bets in one hour is not very likely. In fact, there's almost no chance he would even put that much in action in an hour at this game (assuming 100 rounds).

 

[NightStalker]

To lower variance

Why on Earth would you PURPOSELY make it a weaker game, ESPECIALLY if you're losing????

Agree it is better to reduce unit size..

 

[Amad99]

I'm not an expert on single deck, but the game you described sounds like a rather poor game to me.

If it is a poor game then I will find a new one. I keep playing because I thought it was a good game and SD games are hard to come by in many areas. What is it that makes it poor so that I can find a better game? no double after split, hit soft 17, no surrender?

 

[Amad99]

Are you sure about that? I find that hard to believe. It's only down 3 units/hour. It's very possible to lose 300 units in 1 hour of play.

Right, on average I've lost about 3 units/hour. I've played about 20 sessions to make about 100 hours total, I recall only 2 winning sessions. I don't know if it's a bad game, a bad downswing, variance, bad luck, or what... I play and practice alot in my house and always do very well, then when I get to the casino I can never catch a break.

 

[Amad99]

Agree it is better to reduce unit size..

Thanks for the advice. Will take into consideration. For now i've stopped until the BR grows back, and I'm also moving to NV soon, so I'm just trying to get some help from some of the pros.

 

[Amad99]

I'm not an expert on single deck, but the game you described sounds like a rather poor game to me.

Also, I was reading through some other threads about where I play and they say the SD games where I play are very good. The same is also mentioned in "Blackbelt in Blackjack." These are also reasons why I keep playing this game because it's been talked up so much.