please help

[misacar]

I downloaded a few bj simulation programs but they are all demos and
giving wrong results, and i am not living in usa so its hard to get it . So if i am not bothering you to much i would
like you to calculate my win per hour(in units) and risk of ruin for
these rules:
6 deck(dealt 4-4.5 decks)
6 burn cards (not seen)
double allowed after split
no dealers hole card
no resplitting or hitting after split of aces
split to 3 hands
no surrender
doubling on any 2 cards
ties push
dealer stand on soft 17
suited BJ pays 2:1

I am using Hi-opt 1 without indexes , except for insurance (i know that).
So first(results) when i am playing all hands, then when i am not
playing when true count is equal or less then -1(because they are to
suspicious when i am skipping a lot).
Of course i am betting 1 unit for TC <1, 2 for 1<TC<2, 4 for 2=<TC<3,
and 6 units for TC>=3
I have bankroll of just 250 units (that is why is small spread) . Do i have advantage at TC=0 ?
P.S. I forget to mention that there is allways about 5 players at the table (including me), so i guess that i am playing less than 100 hands per hour.

Please this will mean a lot to me.
Thanks!!!

 

[newyorkbear]

You state that suited BJs pay 2-1,what do unsuited pay/ 3-2 or even money?If its even money,I don't think its worth playing.

 

[KenSmith]

I'm sure he means that blackjacks pay 3:2, unless they are suited and pay 2:1.

I would run this, but I'm really crunched for time. Can anyone else do a sim? If not, someone remind me in mid-January.

 

[misacar]

Yes, like Ken said. Normal Bj pays 3:2, and suited pays 2:1.

 

[zengrifter]

I can't run the sim, BUT even with the bonusBJ pay you will need to exit at -1 or less and make your max-bet 2hands of 4u to derive a realistic profit - which I estimate would be about 2.5u per 100 rounds. zg

 

[zengrifter]

Well its settled!*

You have the advantage at 0 -and- your EV is over 3.75u/100 hands. I previously didn't realize that 2-1 pay suitedBJ was worth so much! zg

*Sonny ran the sim.

 

[misacar]

Thanks zg . Just to make clear is that ev for your recommendation( last post ) or for my spread , and is it for all hands or with backcounting -1.
Well when I already writing I wonder one thing . In my demo sim there is selected ‘playing 100 hands on hour’ and sim is showing some results, but when I also select back counting it still stays ‘playing 100 hands on hour’ but of course different results.
Now I wonder do the sim think that all of that 100 hands are with TC>-1 and for that are those better results, or it just skip hands that are TC<-1 so with playing less then 100 on hour that better results are correct.
Sorry for bad explanation but my origin language is not english.

 

[zengrifter]

Thanks zg . Just to make clear is that ev for your recommendation( last post ) or for my spread , and is it for all hands or with backcounting -1. I wonder one thing . In my demo sim there is selected ‘playing 100 hands on hour’ and sim is showing some results, but when I also select back counting it still stays ‘playing 100 hands on hour’ but of course different results.

Thats for your spread, but my 2hands @ 4u top bet is a little better. When you sim the back-counting, which is the preffered method, you will "see" 100 hands per hour (ie, you are playing them but not betting on all of them) - you will actually be betting on about 30 of them. Thus, if you are in a casino with several to many tables with open spots you should abandon the shoe at between -1 to -2 and start again at a fresh shoe... not waiting for that shoe's shuffle. zg

 

[KenSmith]

Just wanted to update this thread with my own simulation results, and I'm seeing different answers than zg.

With Hi-Opt I plus an Ace side count, playing all hands, using your spread:
(Bet 2u@1, 4u@2, 6u@3+), I get an overall initial bet advantage of 0.76%.
In 100 hands, your expected win is 1.27 units.

I used 4.5 decks dealt, less the 6 cards burned.

 

[misacar]

Thanks Ken, i suppose that without ace side count it would be around 1 . Just tell me what is my side deviation . And i think that if i use hi-lo the results wil be same as hi-opt with ace side count.
Again thans a lot.