POLL: DO you have or intend to buy Beyond Counting II
- Thread starter 21forme
- Start date
Those going into fits over the ethics of the plays Grosjean discusses might want to ponder the ethics of casinos reaming their customers with ever-worse games. For example, the pair plus pay table that's popped up at Lake Tahoe with a house edge of over 10 percent. And I propose a new marketing phrase for the LVCVA: "Las Vegas--home of the 6:5 H17 CSM." Now if they'd only make those games no mid-deck entry....
Grosjean is greatest
My one regret was waiting too long to buy the original Beyond Counting because the price scared me off. Didn't make that mistake twice, and that book paid for itself in HOURS for me and my bankroll continues to grow from it. The second edition has info on beating games that I summized could be beaten, but didn't know how to analyze as I am not a computer programmer nor a mathematician. Think of the costs of hiring a computer programmer or many hours spent analyzing games? That cost is enormous. Grosjean has done all the work for me for $250, know I can spot an advantage, and take it. There are still some games and scenarios missing I would have liked to have seen included but the man can't spend all of his time writing and researching while still harvesting the casinos. The only way to top a book like this would be if someone released user friendly customizable software that allowed for analyzing specific "what if" scenarios on any type of game complete with the BR requirements.... QFIT???
-BW
My one regret was waiting too long to buy the original Beyond Counting because the price scared me off. Didn't make that mistake twice, and that book paid for itself in HOURS for me and my bankroll continues to grow from it. The second edition has info on beating games that I summized could be beaten, but didn't know how to analyze as I am not a computer programmer nor a mathematician. Think of the costs of hiring a computer programmer or many hours spent analyzing games? That cost is enormous. Grosjean has done all the work for me for $250, know I can spot an advantage, and take it. There are still some games and scenarios missing I would have liked to have seen included but the man can't spend all of his time writing and researching while still harvesting the casinos. The only way to top a book like this would be if someone released user friendly customizable software that allowed for analyzing specific "what if" scenarios on any type of game complete with the BR requirements.... QFIT???
-BW
Most of the carnival games are a bit simpler than BJ and if you want to try your hand at learning some programming, now you have incentive to do it. It is most definitely worth learning because the most valuable advantages you will ever have are the ones you discover yourself and share with no one. You'll have to do the math yourself on those.
Sonny said:
They may. 
I’ve seen numerous people on this website posting about playing bad shoe games because “it’s the only game available”. We have people risking their entire bankroll to grind out $10 per hour. They might be surprised to know that they can increase their profit tenfold (or more) by learning to recognize better games that are right under their noses. I agree that the book is not completely necessary and that it probably will not financially benefit the majority of players, but the few people that put it to good use will be handsomely rewarded IMHO.
-Sonny-
I’ve seen numerous people on this website posting about playing bad shoe games because “it’s the only game available”. We have people risking their entire bankroll to grind out $10 per hour. They might be surprised to know that they can increase their profit tenfold (or more) by learning to recognize better games that are right under their noses. I agree that the book is not completely necessary and that it probably will not financially benefit the majority of players, but the few people that put it to good use will be handsomely rewarded IMHO.-Sonny-
Anyways, the moral dilemma is fine. If counters are happy grindng out 1% I will be the guy in the carnival pit taking advantage of a game giving me from 3% to 30% on every hand. Maybe it's immoral but a casino will not stop players from making terrible playing decisions or cutting gambling addcits off.
There are reasons for those choices. Most people enjoy playing in Northern NV but I for one 1) have to much exposure in those stores to play there all the time, 2) have difficulty getting my betting level on the table in most stores and 3) usually cannot avoid weekends when the crowding makes profitable SD play impossible. So LV is sometimes a better choice. My favorite place to play these days is Atlantic City.
Again, don't knock another player's decisions until you know the whole story. Sure, I'll play some carnival games at times but unless you have an enormous bankroll a 1-card game is not as profitable as blackjack. The game is much slower and the variance much higher, forcing you to lower your bets. There's nothing moral or immoral about it, just not the best choice for most AP's.
Again, don't knock another player's decisions until you know the whole story. Sure, I'll play some carnival games at times but unless you have an enormous bankroll a 1-card game is not as profitable as blackjack. The game is much slower and the variance much higher, forcing you to lower your bets. There's nothing moral or immoral about it, just not the best choice for most AP's.
The Giant Squid
I agree, to each their own. But this brings up a good point, like the first edition, this book is for advanced players (or pros) with large enough BR's to be able to stomach the variance and have enough time to commit to get into a notional long run.
I think that most of the truly smart AP's will realise that using info to beat games is much, much easier and profitable than counting, sequencing, shuffle tracking.
I have discovered some advantageous plays on my own but have never known the optimum play as I don't know how to simulate exactly what I need (lack of programming knowledge). Grosjean's book hammers out many of these kinks for me, it is perfect. I can now play with more confidence and therefore at higher stakes. He also writes about things that I have NO WAY of knowing how he is gathering information about a hand without cheating (he says all his methods are legal). Grosjean uses a giant squid analogy when it comes to certain advantages; most people believe they exist, some people have seen one, a few people have seen them alot. After reading his books, I fit into all three categories with some advantages he says are out there.
I realise this is a blackjack counting forum and some of the Old Guard looks at Grosjean style play is immoral or not worth the time or trouble of vulturing in on a weak game or forming a gambling team of midgets. All I am trying to say is if you are happy and comfortable counting 8-deckers then BC is not for you regardless of your BR, skill level etc. It is not going to give a counter anything that a $25 book will. If you are tired of casinos offering increasingly bad games and then barring you from trying to beat these increasingly bad games then BC is for you. The sentiment in this fourm seems to be counters are tired of being barred or shuffled up on or short payed for their naturals everywhere and still get really hot and bothered over a 4-deck game at the Trop in AC. Then are paranoid about it being a counter trap! How much fun can this be??
Grosjean will not tell you how or where to find holecards, next cards, locks in Craps, betting on wheels in motion, or even currency exchange locks! He is just proving these games are beatable. When Thorpe wrote Beat the Dealer, people still did not beleive that BJ was beatable or even that BS was optimal. Writers such as Griffin, Revere, Humble & Cooper and others still had to prove in their works that card counting was a real thing and followed it up with real mathematics as well as how to use the proof. Grosjean is doing this. Casinos beleive that card counting is real and have made rules or procedures that defend against this. Some casinos beleive that other games are beatable and have taken defense against this (Fitz in LV has a spring under the felt to thwart dice control).
Whatever your reason to do anything is your choice. Some make AP decsions with rational considerations, others would make more practical considerations in mind ie) "Can't go to Reno because of 86ing" vs "have to go to LV because wife likes shopping and shows". But any AP worth his weight in silver dollars should open his eyes, ears and mind and find the Giant Squid.
I agree, to each their own. But this brings up a good point, like the first edition, this book is for advanced players (or pros) with large enough BR's to be able to stomach the variance and have enough time to commit to get into a notional long run.
I think that most of the truly smart AP's will realise that using info to beat games is much, much easier and profitable than counting, sequencing, shuffle tracking.
I have discovered some advantageous plays on my own but have never known the optimum play as I don't know how to simulate exactly what I need (lack of programming knowledge). Grosjean's book hammers out many of these kinks for me, it is perfect. I can now play with more confidence and therefore at higher stakes. He also writes about things that I have NO WAY of knowing how he is gathering information about a hand without cheating (he says all his methods are legal). Grosjean uses a giant squid analogy when it comes to certain advantages; most people believe they exist, some people have seen one, a few people have seen them alot. After reading his books, I fit into all three categories with some advantages he says are out there.
I realise this is a blackjack counting forum and some of the Old Guard looks at Grosjean style play is immoral or not worth the time or trouble of vulturing in on a weak game or forming a gambling team of midgets. All I am trying to say is if you are happy and comfortable counting 8-deckers then BC is not for you regardless of your BR, skill level etc. It is not going to give a counter anything that a $25 book will. If you are tired of casinos offering increasingly bad games and then barring you from trying to beat these increasingly bad games then BC is for you. The sentiment in this fourm seems to be counters are tired of being barred or shuffled up on or short payed for their naturals everywhere and still get really hot and bothered over a 4-deck game at the Trop in AC. Then are paranoid about it being a counter trap! How much fun can this be??
Grosjean will not tell you how or where to find holecards, next cards, locks in Craps, betting on wheels in motion, or even currency exchange locks! He is just proving these games are beatable. When Thorpe wrote Beat the Dealer, people still did not beleive that BJ was beatable or even that BS was optimal. Writers such as Griffin, Revere, Humble & Cooper and others still had to prove in their works that card counting was a real thing and followed it up with real mathematics as well as how to use the proof. Grosjean is doing this. Casinos beleive that card counting is real and have made rules or procedures that defend against this. Some casinos beleive that other games are beatable and have taken defense against this (Fitz in LV has a spring under the felt to thwart dice control).
Whatever your reason to do anything is your choice. Some make AP decsions with rational considerations, others would make more practical considerations in mind ie) "Can't go to Reno because of 86ing" vs "have to go to LV because wife likes shopping and shows". But any AP worth his weight in silver dollars should open his eyes, ears and mind and find the Giant Squid.
Last edited:
That would be called a compiler. Over the last year I've simmed dozens of games from Bingo side bets to Tennis playoffs. Unfortunately,you need to start pretty much from scratch when simming a different game. About the only thing that I've managed to reuse is basic Poker logic, which can be used in several games. The CVData customized bonus/side bet facility is not trivial to use and it is BJ-specific. Unfortunately, I don't see how you could create a user interface for a non-game specific analyzer that would be any easier to use than a programming language.
Over the last year I've simmed dozens of games from Bingo side bets to Tennis playoffs. Unfortunately,you need to start pretty much from scratch when simming a different game. About the only thing that I've managed to reuse is basic Poker logic, which can be used in several games. The CVData customized bonus/side bet facility is not trivial to use and it is BJ-specific. Unfortunately, I don't see how you could create a user interface for a non-game specific analyzer that would be any easier to use than a programming language.
QFIT said:
That would be called a compiler. Over the last year I've simmed dozens of games from Bingo side bets to Tennis playoffs. Unfortunately,you need to start pretty much from scratch when simming a different game. About the only thing that I've managed to reuse is basic Poker logic, which can be used in several games. The CVData customized bonus/side bet facility is not trivial to use and it is BJ-specific. Unfortunately, I don't see how you could create a user interface for a non-game specific analyzer that would be any easier to use than a programming language.
Over the last year I've simmed dozens of games from Bingo side bets to Tennis playoffs. Unfortunately,you need to start pretty much from scratch when simming a different game. About the only thing that I've managed to reuse is basic Poker logic, which can be used in several games. The CVData customized bonus/side bet facility is not trivial to use and it is BJ-specific. Unfortunately, I don't see how you could create a user interface for a non-game specific analyzer that would be any easier to use than a programming language.
-BW
You write very well.
Don't get me wrong, all advanced AP's should know these techniques and most do. People on this site have watched me spotting cards (and it's a scary sight!) But let's refer to the math: You have a game with a 2.8% advantage, high variance, and 25 hands per hour. Next to it you have a game with 1% advantage, relatively low variance, and 80 hands per hour. (That second game is an 8D BJ game.) Which is the better game?
Don't get me wrong, all advanced AP's should know these techniques and most do. People on this site have watched me spotting cards (and it's a scary sight!) But let's refer to the math: You have a game with a 2.8% advantage, high variance, and 25 hands per hour. Next to it you have a game with 1% advantage, relatively low variance, and 80 hands per hour. (That second game is an 8D BJ game.) Which is the better game?
I don't have the knowledge of programming or how to run sims on carnival games or even non-counting ways of beating BJ and its variants. My access to mathematics is limited. When asking friends or colleageues in the know about programming how to set up a programme it is difficult to explain exactly what I want. Those that understand, quote that it would be worth thousands of dollars in man hours. We have manually tried to figure out optimum plays but never had the confidence as there are so many intagibles to some games. I like to make the analogy between someone who sees a hole card/next card/trackable wheel and a 6-year old you sees up a woman's dress - he likes what he sees but isn't quite sure what it's for or how to use it!
It is not the first book about AP but it is the latest and the best. Counting has been around for decades. Tracking, sequencing etc is very difficult. Dice control is suspect. Much has been written about paramutel poker, horse racing, sports betting. Using BC's or BC2's techniques are DAMN EASY. Read it find a game and beat it. No setting up a craps table in your attic, counting down decks in 20 seconds, memorizing indeces, cutting off 52 cards, finding drunk loose fish, or a claimer who is running under his class.
It is not the first book about AP but it is the latest and the best. Counting has been around for decades. Tracking, sequencing etc is very difficult. Dice control is suspect. Much has been written about paramutel poker, horse racing, sports betting. Using BC's or BC2's techniques are DAMN EASY. Read it find a game and beat it. No setting up a craps table in your attic, counting down decks in 20 seconds, memorizing indeces, cutting off 52 cards, finding drunk loose fish, or a claimer who is running under his class.
The trouble with that counting play is that you're talking about a 1% AVERAGE advantage. The majority of hands you're playing at a disadvantage, unless you're wonging (as you should), in which case you get nowhere close to 80 hands per hour. Bankroll limitations, nominal or practical table limits, Kelly betting considerations, and practical limits on spread are going to limit how much you're able to bet in favorable situations, which don't come along all that often to begin with. This is very detrimental to the total action per hour that you'll be able to get down in positive counts. Any action you're forced to give in negative counts bleeds money.