POLL: What would your next bet be?

[Automatic Monkey]

I walk into a casino I play once every 4-6 weeks. It has a relatively small BJ area, and the PC recognizes me and we exchange trivialities. He's kinda hanging around as only 2 or 3 tables are open in the pit.

I'm playing a $50 unit. After a few decks (shoe game) count goes up and up, I'm winning hand after hand, and I parlay my way up to a $500 bet. Final bet of the shoe, I double down and push, so I get my 10 blacks back. I made $2000 that shoe.

Dealer starts to shuffle and I'm wondering what I should bet opening hand, as the PC was watching the shoe end. Your thoughts appreciated.

At that betting level, I'd probably take a break.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Not Costly and Very Costly

While betting $500 off the top of a shoe might not be that expensive in expectation it is rather expensive in extending the NO:joker::whip:

 

[kewljason]

You are spreading $50-$500 (1-10) in a shoe game, which certainly isn't excesssive and probably playing all or at least most hands. (Where are you going to wong to in a small joint) Your profit margin is fairly slim in this situation anyway and now you are going to add in the cost of cover?? A shoe ending in the max bet isn't that uncommon of an accurance. It's going to happen again soon, whether later this trip, next trip or what not. If you can't go back to your small 1 unit wager each time, you are effectively reducing your bet spread, which again was only 1-10 in a probably play all shoe game anyway.

I don't think it matters what you do anyway. If the place is so small that they recognize, acknowledge and remember you when you only play once every 4-6 week, your long term prospects are in trouble anyway.

However, In this situation, I would go smoke and mirrors on them. Rather than go back to 1 unit, I would bet somewhere between 2 and 3, but mixing up odd amounts for a couple hands. $135, $115, maybe even breaking down a $5 chip and bet $122.50, $167.50 or $147.50.

 

[creeping panther]

Eandre

Everything is relative. Many years ago I started to study blackjack and set out with a very modest bankroll. $800. I am not a professional but I probably play more hours then most professionals. I take the game very serious and study/read something nearly every day. The internet has been an invaluable source of information once you weed out the garbage. I am not a theorist, I am a player. My play has steadily grown, as has my bankroll. I'm super diciplined and will not play big at any casino that has marginal rules. I will play enough to cover the comps such as flights/suites/meals but will play next door to make the money. Some management companies are more generous then others but their rules make it tough to win. I am a grinder. Just knowing I can beat a casino time and time again is really the thrill. I mix my play up. Sometimes at $10/$15 tables, spreading 1-30 or more and sometimes at high stakes spreading 1-20 or more. My game is 6 deck but I enjoy double deck with decent rules. It's not always fun when you flush 10-20k but it happens. I will quit playing the game only if I bust out and have to begin using my earned income from any other source than gambling. I am a rather frugile individual except at the tables. My adrenaline doesn't start pumping any more until my bets exceed the $1800 level...don't ask me why it's $1800 except that I have a routine that I run that bet up to $5000 if catch 2-$1800 winners and the count warrants it...anticipation. But if I run into a rough patch where my bankroll drops by50-75k...I focus on the smaller tables with bigger spreads to replenish my ammunition. I find that I can spread 1-50 at times in low stakes pits and pick up 3-5k with little chance of losing because of the low minimums. It may take several sessions but looking at my log,it's effective for me. Remember, if you bet big, you win big, but you also lose big. I rarely run long losing streaks except for the months of October and November regardless where I play. I'm always on fire Jan-May regardless where I play. The hardest thing to learn is not to change your style of play based on winning or losing. Don't turn conservative(start counting your winning) and don't plunge either (over betting). I see it happen to players time and time again. Very few players have success over the years. I see new faces every6-18 months. I don't know if they burn out or bust out. I am a loner and that has extended my shelf life. My wife is an excellent video poker player and most casinos see her as the bigger player even at my level primarily because I work very hard disguising my wins.
Also, most of the experts are not big players and the honest ones admit it. I am not an expert...I am a player.

You for sure are what I would call a big player.

CP

 

[blackchipjim]

next bet

You can go either way, leave or, go with zg's theorem. I would split three hands of 100 per hand and go from there. Reason behind it, it makes you look like you are still interested in playing through and leaving on a loss is always justified to both me and the pit bosses.

 

[johndoe]

Walk

I'd take a break, answer a call, something else besides starting that new shoe. What's the drawback of walking away for a while? If you want your seat back just have them throw lammers on your spots.

If there's some reason you MUST keep playing (not sure why this would ever be the case) then I'd drop the bets to something like half the amount or less, but still with a reasonable-looking pile.

Betting $500 off the top once in a while does have a small -EV, but pretty crazy variance, and it's a rare event. If you're way up at that moment you might be able to justify it BR-wise, but I don't see the need.

My favorite routine is to walk away but backcount, and hope it gets to a point where there's no need to reduce my bets (much).

 

[21forme]

My favorite routine is to walk away but backcount, and hope it gets to a point where there's no need to reduce my bets (much).

Old thread resurrected, though I still remember the details. Backcounting wasn't an option as it was a no mid-shoe entry game.

 

[itrack]

Since you pushed the last hand, I would probably make a comment to the PB such as, "wow that was gettin a little scary for a second before I pushed", or, " that was a little bit too close for comfort, Im gonna tone it down a little bit". The OP said he was chatting with the PB before, so I don't think this would look too out of place depending on the way the OP looked and acted up until this point. However, I think playin the same color could have benefits, so I would probably just toss out 1 black chip, or maybe 1 each on two spots, and keep it out there until I lost them.

 

[10JQKA]

betting $500 will only have an average $2.50 loss but how often does this happen? How many times would this need to happen to reach N0 on this particular play?

May as well go put $500 on red on roulette, then the pit boss thinks you are a roulette loser too. I guess it depends how much you really want to stay welcome at the casino

 

[johndoe]

betting $500 will only have an average $2.50 loss but how often does this happen? How many times would this need to happen to reach N0 on this particular play?

May as well go put $500 on red on roulette, then the pit boss thinks you are a roulette loser too. I guess it depends how much you really want to stay welcome at the casino

Well, to be fair, the roulette play is 10x as expensive.

 

[Renzey]

I walk into a casino I play once every 4-6 weeks. It has a relatively small BJ area, and the PC recognizes me and we exchange trivialities. He's kinda hanging around as only 2 or 3 tables are open in the pit.

I'm playing a $50 unit. After a few decks (shoe game) count goes up and up, I'm winning hand after hand, and I parlay my way up to a $500 bet. Final bet of the shoe, I double down and push, so I get my 10 blacks back. I made $2000 that shoe.

Dealer starts to shuffle and I'm wondering what I should bet opening hand, as the PC was watching the shoe end. Your thoughts appreciated.

You didn't mention how many players were at the table. If you were alone, I think you'd need to leave -- at least temporarily. If there were others there, I'd advise you to put three black chips in the betting square while the dealer shuffles, then slide two of them back just as the burn card is going into the discard tray. You'll be stuck playing with black chips until you've lost a couple in a row.

I think your $500 bet should've contained some greens on top. It provides the ability to mix colors on your bets and achieve the desired total less conspicuously. Had your last bet been 4 blacks and 4 greens, you could've stacked up say, 7 green chips for the start of the next shoe, and manipulate from there.

 

[21forme]

Nice to see you back, Fred. I believe there was one other, perhaps two, at the table. This was a small pit with only 4 tables (3 of which were open), so the PC was aware of what was going on. I like that idea of sliding off a few chips at the last minute.