Possible to become winner just by playing BS?

[ycming]

Hey Peeps,

There might be a promotions near my casino where in 2 hours of the day, the following will be changed from the standard UK games:

All winners pays 3:2
All blackjack pays 2:1

I use the hi-lo count my self, and is there anything i should change to make best use of this rules?

Also what would the EV be then with the rule changes?

As far as i know the UK games have an HE of 0.55.

Thanks
Ming

 

[StandardDeviant]

Cash In!

Name the place and time! I'm coming over!! Those would be great rules, and yes you would have a positive EV even when flat betting.

 

[ycming]

Ah, just one of the dealer informed me yesterday. He is unsure when it is starting. Will confirm once it starts

Thanks
Ming

 

[QFIT]

Mortgage your house. Sell your children. Take all the cash you can find and flat bet. Wear adult diapers, you won't want to leave the table for any reason as they will find out how disastrous this is and stop the promotion at some point.

 

[ycming]

It is some sort of promotions they are doing, from what the dealer said it will be from 9pm - 11pm just 2 hours a day.

Was thinking moving from a 1-8 spread to a 1-12 spread during the 2 hours and flat bet 2 units.

Ming

 

[sabre]

It is some sort of promotions they are doing, from what the dealer said it will be from 9pm - 11pm just 2 hours a day.

Was thinking moving from a 1-8 spread to a 1-12 spread during the 2 hours and flat bet 2 units.

Ming

1) There is 0 chance that this promotion will go off as you describe it

2) If it did ... the player advantage would be well into the double digits. Betting 2 units off the top into an advantage that is several times that of what you see when you're betting 8 units makes no sense. You should be betting at least 24 units off the top ... and probably significantly more. But it's really not worth doing the math to see how great your advantage is, because #1 above still holds. You misunderstood the promo.

 

[FLASH1296]

If this comes off, (and I doubt that very much), it will last no more than the initial 2 hours.

The losses to the house will be intolerable, to understate the case.

The shift manager will be watching closely and as the chips migrate
from the dealer's racks to the player's stacks he will pull the plug.

Note: this promo serves as an effective Advantage Player "trap"
I suspect that if you flat bet the table max you'll be 86'd within 10 mins.

 

[RJT]

It is some sort of promotions they are doing, from what the dealer said it will be from 9pm - 11pm just 2 hours a day.

Was thinking moving from a 1-8 spread to a 1-12 spread during the 2 hours and flat bet 2 units.

Ming

There's no need for a spread on this game - the advantage would be massive and a spread would just add to casino anxiety. Take a big flat bet - maybe 10-20 times you standard unit - and just grind it out.
Oh and if the promotion is as you suggest and you're struggling to fund it, let me know and i'll jump in my car lol....

RJT.

 

[kewljason]

Ah, just one of the dealer informed me yesterday. He is unsure when it is starting. Will confirm once it starts

Thanks
Ming

I think this is the key right here. You learned of this suppossed promotion from a dealer, not from a casino promo or other more official source? I hope for your sake it pans out, but like the others I am skeptical and feel you encountered a dealer that was just pulling your leg.

 

[Pro21]

Just be aware that you can get crushed at this game. I one time played a 2-1 on BJ promotion with a $100 max bet. I played 3 hands of 100 and lost 20,000 over 8 hours of play.

 

[RJT]

Just be aware that you can get crushed at this game. I one time played a 2-1 on BJ promotion with a $100 max bet. I played 3 hands of 100 and lost 20,000 over 8 hours of play.

The 2-1 on BJ's nice but the 3-2 on every win is what would push this up to an amazing game. I'd need to run the sims, but i'm not sure the varience on this game would be that high - i might be wrong. Either way, if it lasted 2 hours you'd be lucky.

RJT.

 

[StandardDeviant]

...but the 3-2 on every win is what would push this up to an amazing game...

That's right!

...i'm not sure the varience on this game would be that high..

The variance wouldn't be that bad if the bets were flat. However, one would need to take a careful look at RoR if he let his flat bet be much larger than usual.

 

[iCountNTrack]

Casino or Charitable Organization

Okay just a quick thought experiment to get a rough estimate of the player's edge.
the percentage of hands won is about 47%, and the extra profit is 50% on each hand (since we are getting paid 3:2 for each winning hand). So the net increase in ev is 50*47%= +23.50%. Add to that the +2.2% in ev from the 2:1 BJ payout, the players advantage is a whopping +25.7%.

Is this a casino ran by the salvation army?

 

[ExhibitCAA]

Dealers are highly unreliable, even when they are telling you their own work schedules!

This will be a 2:1 on BJ promotion--that is all.

Here is how the confusion came in. Someone said to the dealer, "We're going to have a promotion. Blackjacks are going to be paid 2:1, while a normal win would be 3:2. So we'll run it two hours per day." You see how the dealer misunderstood (or the dealer said that to the player, who misunderstood)?

 

[QFIT]

Could also be BJ pays 2:1 on some BJs, and 3-2 on the rest. All winners pays 3:2 would cause massive casino losses.

 

[shadroch]

Suited BJs pay 2-1, normal ones pay3-2?

 

[ExhibitCAA]

Pretty soon we'll have this promotion down to normal blackjacks pay 2 for 1, and suited BJ pays a whopping 6:5.

 

[shadroch]

ties are a push 2Am-4am, Tuesdays only.

 

[ycming]

It does sound "too good to be true". I'll update.

also like to add, the town i play in, is where no one like to bust themselves and there is not one single person that i know could play the basic strategy perfectly from the 3 years i been at the casino.

Thanks
Ming

 

[UK-21]

I don't think the casino will be bankrupted - the majority of players will continue to bet the table min or modestly and deviate from BS by standing on their stiffs and not soft doubling etc. It will experience a higher loss for the two hours but I'm sure will make up for it somewhere within the house.

I suspect that some bright spark in the management team has been prodded to come up with ideas to increase the footfall, and this is one of those that has been proposed without any real idea of the effects on the HE or the maths. As Flash has said, when they realise the cost it'll be toast - probably after just a single session it that happens to coincide with visits from a few people who understand the game.

Shame I can't be there. . . . :cry: