Possible to become winner just by playing BS?
- Thread starter ycming
- Start date
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UK-21
Well-Known Member
Is it a hand you nominate or do they just announce "this hand will pay . . . ."
If it's one of choice, wait for the TC to hit +4, put out a hefty bet and tell them you'll take your chances then.
If it's one they nominate (and if so I bet it's off the top of a new shoe), it's worth taking your chances with a hefty bet many times higher than your usual table min. £60 will win you £90 if you get a result, which is the equivalent of 18 units straight away (or roughly 9 hours earnings if you take the EV at 2 per hour). If you get a raspberry you haven't crippled yourself. Just keep in mind the balance between risk and return. Off the top of a new shoe you have a coin's flip chance of losing your bet and are, as you know, playing at a 0.5% or thereabouts disadvantage.
It all depends, of course, on the finer points of how the promo is played.
If it's one of choice, wait for the TC to hit +4, put out a hefty bet and tell them you'll take your chances then.
If it's one they nominate (and if so I bet it's off the top of a new shoe), it's worth taking your chances with a hefty bet many times higher than your usual table min. £60 will win you £90 if you get a result, which is the equivalent of 18 units straight away (or roughly 9 hours earnings if you take the EV at 2 per hour). If you get a raspberry you haven't crippled yourself. Just keep in mind the balance between risk and return. Off the top of a new shoe you have a coin's flip chance of losing your bet and are, as you know, playing at a 0.5% or thereabouts disadvantage.
It all depends, of course, on the finer points of how the promo is played.
UK-21
Well-Known Member
Why don't you sit down and do some sums with a spreadsheet?
Basically they'll be five instances of this promo per evening. Look at the probabilities: you could play five, lose five. Or play five, win five. Or play five, win one, lose four (I'd ignore the instances of a push as you don't win or lose anything). And all of the combinations in between. You can work out what are the chances of being a net winner or loser, and based on that decide how much you're prepared to risk on these five hands as a %age of your bankroll. About an hour's work I reckon, or over a cup of coffee if you're really sharp using Excel.
Basically they'll be five instances of this promo per evening. Look at the probabilities: you could play five, lose five. Or play five, win five. Or play five, win one, lose four (I'd ignore the instances of a push as you don't win or lose anything). And all of the combinations in between. You can work out what are the chances of being a net winner or loser, and based on that decide how much you're prepared to risk on these five hands as a %age of your bankroll. About an hour's work I reckon, or over a cup of coffee if you're really sharp using Excel.
QFIT
Well-Known Member
You might make one minor change to HiLo. For 16vTen, use an index of -1 if you're going for max EV. That's probably the only common index affected.
Splits are a more interesting problem. I don't know if you posted how they are handled. If you split, win one and lose one, do you end up winning or is it considered an overall tie?
Splits are a more interesting problem. I don't know if you posted how they are handled. If you split, win one and lose one, do you end up winning or is it considered an overall tie?
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