possible to predict ace pairs?

Discussion in 'Skilled Play - Card Counting, Advanced Strategies' started by BigT, Aug 30, 2011.

  1. BigT

    BigT New Member

    The casino i go to has a side bet where for £1 you get £100 for 2 aces. Its a 6 deck hand shuffled game with what i think is 70% penetration. Is it possible to keep some sort of ace count to know when there is an increased chance of getting ace pairs? I have tried ace tracking using 2 key cards but with 6 decks there are so many key cards that could just be from another deck.

  2. FLASH1296

    FLASH1296 Well-Known Member

    If the chance of being dealt paired aces is roughly 143 to 1; a patron who is willing to accept 100 to 1 is a dolt.

    You are searching for a way to reduce the odds. IF you tracked aces well enough to know that you had a 1 in 9
    chance of getting dealt one, then your odds of getting the second ace would make this proposition a 8 x 12 = 96 =
    95 to 1 odds. A tidy profit of 5% IF you can get to that 1 in 9 (12.5%) chance on a singleton ACE.
  3. 175.7826087 to 1.

    An ace sidecount will do the job, but it's probably not worth it if you can't put down any more than a GBP.
  4. London Colin

    London Colin Well-Known Member

    Flash, I think your arithmetic has gone a little awry in various places.

    It might be easier, and less confusing, to do all the work in terms of probabilities, and convert to odds at the end if desired.

    By my calculation the odds of being dealt a pair are 1/13 * 1/13 = 1/169 (or 168 to 1) for infinite deck; or 24/312 * 23/311 = 0.0057 (or approx. 175:1) for 6 decks.

    And 1 in 9 is not 12.5%! (That would be 1 in 8, or 7 to 1 odds.)

    I think I know the promo in question, and there are other, higher variance payouts (including a progressive jackpot) for greater numbers of aces. (I forget the details.)

    But, just focusing on the single pair, I believe it actually pays 99:1, in that you don't get your stake back. So we need a 1/100 chance of getting the pair in order to break even.

    So if the chance of a random ace is 1/13, the chance of the first, tracked ace would have to be 1/(100/13) = 1/(7.7), in order to break even.
  5. London Colin

    London Colin Well-Known Member

    Like Flash, my assumption is that tracking/steering the aces would be the only way to potentially profit from this. (For those that can do such things.)

    If you go purely by the density of the remaining aces, it doesn't seem like there would be very many opportunites to make a +EV bet.
  6. Right. But if you normally sidecount aces and you're playing the game anyway, it's surely worthwhile to know the point where you would make the bet.
  7. London Colin

    London Colin Well-Known Member

    Or would it? This kind of thing always confuses me.

    The 'tracked' ace could be the first or second card, as could the random ace. Not sure if that invalidates my above calculation.
  8. London Colin

    London Colin Well-Known Member

    That's true.

    Equally, I suppose, if you are an ace tracker then you get an added benefit from the sidebet, on top of the usual benefits of your art.
  9. tezzadiver

    tezzadiver Well-Known Member

    Any idea of the payout on that progressive jackpot Colin? I have just come to hear about this promo myself.

    Am I correct to say 4 suited aces sweeps it?
  10. London Colin

    London Colin Well-Known Member

    Sorry, I don't know. I hope to pay a visit in the next couple of days; I'll try and remember to note down all the details. (Something I've forgotten to do on two previous visits.)

    From memory, there are three tiers of fixed payouts (I think for any 2, 3, or 4 aces), plus the jackpot. I don't think the jackpot was for 4 suited aces; it may have been something like 3 ace of hearts, but all the above may be misremembered.

    You can also get 10% of the jackpot if you are playing the sidebet when someone else at the table wins it. (Hopefully this is in addition to the winner's 100% payout, rather than deducted from it!:eek:)
  11. Elhombre

    Elhombre Well-Known Member

    Sorry but the gain for an ace sequenzer is to small,
    about 10 quids an hour.

  12. BigT

    BigT New Member

    cheers for the info guys. Ive only really recently properly got into blackjack and can keep a count fairly well but i tend to leave that to my partner cos hes very good at it and i concentrate on learning to track aces. so far i can only manage one and it has worked a fair few times.

    I just had a small thought when i saw the side bet and decided to ask here, if i kept a count of aces i would know how many were left in the unplayed cards and if i was getting the cut then for the first 2 decks i would know how many aces were so from there i could work out the chance of getting a pair or even more. it 5k for 3 suited aces and 100k for 4 suited aces but obviously the chances are so low its not worth it.

    It was just a thought that popped into my head at the time, is it actually possible to beat such a side bet by counting aces or atleast increase your chances.
  13. Elhombre

    Elhombre Well-Known Member

    You can do that successful together with sequenzing, it depends on
    the shuffle.

    Remember the two key cards above the ace, when the keys come out the
    the last round as the very last cards you could expect an ace as the
    next first cards.

    If you could remember about 5-7 keys every round, you could be
    very successful.

    Do it like Ben : Youtube : Ben Pridmore. Ben remembers the 2 keys in increments of
    2 cards.

  14. tezzadiver

    tezzadiver Well-Known Member

    Lol. Knowing the casino in question- I would`nt doubt it if they subract it from the winners progressive total. They are stingy enough with comp points :eek::flame:

    Would like to roll down there myself and check it out, but no time at the moment due to wrk commitments :sad:
  15. Gamblor

    Gamblor Well-Known Member

    Just out of curiosity, does anyone sequence other cards for possibly other games or lets say variations? Is it worthwhile? :)
  16. London Colin

    London Colin Well-Known Member

    promo details

    I checked it out. They do in fact subtract it! But it is only 10% shared among any other sidebet players, not 10% per player, so there isn't quite the scope for massive disappointment for the winner that I was considering.

    It looks like this may not be the same promo as BigT is discussing, as the details don't quite match (or his memory may be as bad as mine:)).

    The payouts are -

    2 unsuited aces: £100
    3 unsuited aces: £200
    3 suited aces: £500
    4 unsuited aces: £5,000
    4 same-colour aces: Jackpot

    (Presumably 'unsuited' means they don't have to be suited, rather than they mustn't be, but the above is the terminology on display.)

    The jackpot stood at around £116,000 yesterday.

    There is a stated house edge of 17%, though I don't know how they factor the ever-changing jackpot into that calculation.
  17. tezzadiver

    tezzadiver Well-Known Member

    Hells bells! £116 000 would make a very welcome addition to the bankroll.

    Bet the ploppies are playing from morning till night non stop ( some of them have amazing bankrolls there- I`m sure you`ve seen- Who knows where the money comes from? )

    How is pen there lately? Its really been a while since I`ve been.....
  18. London Colin

    London Colin Well-Known Member

    Indeed. Sadly, I make it less than a 1 in 391,000 chance of winning it. There is no mention of a ceiling; the jackpot supposedly rises until someone wins it. So the bet could eventually become +EV, even without tracking the aces in any way.

    I don't know whether the jackpot merely increases with time, or whether it is a function of the accumulated number of bets made throughout the country. If it's the former, you would think they would have to protect themselves by setting an upper limit.

    Actually, I've rarely seen anyone playing it. I think perhaps because it is a bit of a faff, as the dealer has to place a special chip on a sensor in order to register each bet with the system.

    To be honest, I didn't really pay much attention, and it's been a while since I paid more than a fleeting visit myself. In the past, I've assessed it to be generally fairly poor, in the 66%-70% range.

    I don't know if we're being unduly coy by not naming the place. Certainly they would recognise themselves from the details in this thread, so not giving the name really only guards against a Google search.

    But I'll stick with that approach for now, and send you a PM just to make sure we are not talking at cross purposes.
  19. SierraSummers

    SierraSummers Member

    Isn't the game available in all stores named after a popular type of apple?

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