# Probability of losing x # of hands in a row

Discussion in 'General' started by SBT, Nov 21, 2011.

1. ### leatherguyrayActive Member

I'm confused

I wish I were as smart as so many who post at this site, but I am not. However, my question is a curiosity. If you were playing a nickle bet and did, as you suggested, raise your bet one unit with each loss through six losses, how would you have recovered your losses? Five losses would total \$75 and the sixth bet of \$30 would not negate all that loss. Hardly half unless in my ignorance I am missing something.

2. ### tthreeBanned

I noticed that too but assumed he actually meant double after each lose. What did you mean OP?

3. ### SBTMember

Responding to icountntrack, I see what you mean that when one is about to be dealt the 5th hand (after say losing four in a row), the probability of loss is the same as when you are dealt the first hand. However, are you saying that it makes no sense to consider runs of losses? Certainly it is more probable that one will win or lose two hands in a row than they will win or lose 50 hands in a row. Or am I missing something here?

Leatherguyray, if I start out betting \$10, then raise one unit to \$20 on the next bet, and win, I have regained my first bet’s win as well as winning the second. If I lose the second hand and then raise my bet to \$30 and win, I have not come out ahead, but I have recovered the bets of all three hands. If I lose the third hand and then bet \$40, and win, I am then even with a flat betting scheme, having lost as much as I would have (2 units overall) from flat betting with losing three followed by a win. I should have said in my earlier post that things begin to go into losses greater than flat betting at the fifth bet progression. Thanks for recognizing and pointing out my math error, Leatherguyray and tthree!

My thought process when I was considering this system -- I was assuming that losing two or three in a row is much more likely than losing more than losing five or more in a row, thus one would recover one’s bets at a higher rate. Also, as one raises one’s bet, blackjacks pay more. However, if you get a streak of losing hands, then you go into much greater losses with this system, so it’s risky. I haven’t tried this yet, but was just considering it. Also, my local casino has surrender, which would reduce the risk somewhat.

4. ### 21gunsaluteWell-Known Member

Well, you have to lose 2 or 3 in a row before you get to 50 in a row, but the problem is you don't know how long of a streak you're going to have to endure before your streak actually ends. You may have only lost 2 or 3 in a row at a given point but you don't know if the streak is going to end on the next hand or 12-15 hands down the road. What you're considering doing is still a negative progression and it still will not work in the long run.

5. ### iCountNTrackWell-Known Member

Yes it is more probable to lose one hand in a row than to lose 50 hands in a row, but how is that useful to you, as you agree with me the probability of losing on the hand you are just about to play is not affected by previous results

6. ### sagefr0gWell-Known Member

it seems a paradox, but i suspect it's really not, as would be true in all things, i suppose. maybe even quantum mechanics?. really more a matter of cognition than physics, albeit both attributes may or may not be involved.
perhaps an analogy, albeit an imperfect one would suffice. such as we think we have two types of forces, gravity & electromagnetism. which is 'stronger'? which seems 'stronger'? foolin around with a magnet & paper clip, maybe one would think gravity is stronger than magnetism, but certain academics like to say that magnetic 'force' is many orders stronger than gravitational 'force'.
here's one of many i don't know. which force is stronger, the gravitational 'pull" of a black hole, or the pull of a magnet on a paper clip? if two equal strength black holes could latch on to two magnets, could they pull the magnets apart? lol:whip:
could the apparent strength of either ever over come that of the other, errhh i mean the gravity or magnetism? lol
whatever, icnt, i think your question is really just a matter of cognition. no?

7. ### blackjack avengerWell-Known Member

a cooler froggie

Err Ummm
Fractional Kelly, seems I am a one trick pony

Dang guberment

I was thinking black hole also:laugh:

Also, as soon as I read the OP
I thought ptogression!:grin:

I like the old avatar, other was scary

8. ### sagefr0gWell-Known Member

it's a sweet one though a'int it? just gotta have a nice big roll though, maybe?
heh, heh, do we even have one?
hmmm, maybe in another context? such as a progression sucking up all ones loot?
but anyway, OP needs to know there is such a thing as situational plays. ie. Dubey's stuff, weak as it may be.
yup, question is, is that all bad, is a progression ever of any value? we all know they will eventually hose you.
zg would call it ' shape shifting' :laugh:

9. ### blackjack avengerWell-Known Member

a short long run

Isn't it how you get the big roll? By staying in the game with fractional Kelly?

10. ### SBTMember

Responders seem to be saying that progressions are a terrible idea. Since you all have been doing this pursuit longer than I have, I will take your word for it. Also, the research I have been doing shows that it can’t be a winning system over time.

Regarding the probability of losing a certain number of hands in a row, this still remains a ponderable issue to me. If a coin is flipped five times, it is true that none of the outcomes has any bearing on subsequent ones. However, the likelihood of at least one tail appearing in five flips is greater than zero tails, if a simulation were conducted of millions of series of five flips. But the random nature of blackjack hands means that a player cannot predict when he/she will have three losses, or ten, or fifteen in row, even if three successive losses is a more likely scenario than fifteen. This is the relevant factor I think icountntrack was referring to, and which makes progressive betting too risky.

11. ### sagefr0gWell-Known Member

yes that's how i see it. fractional Kelly puts your ROR way down, so with an advantage over time even with ups and downs of the concomitant volatility one can weather the storm and come out ahead, with a bigger big roll.

12. ### tthreeBanned

I can see when the hand outcome has been choppy. My problem is I can't see when the hand outcome WILL be choppy. Classic ploppy thinking that a past trend indicates what the future holds.

13. ### jaygrudenWell-Known Member

SBT...This has been hashed out many, many, many times.........Please read and try to understand and you will become one of the fortunate few who crosses over from from the "darkside" of fallacy into the light......