zengrifter said:
Math - 2D simple keycard approach, no mneumonic assit >
1. I have a 1 in 2 chance of spotting correct keycard 50% edge/2 = 25%
2. A 1 in 6 chance of getting (extra) Ace one of my two hands.
3. 50%/2/6 = 4% approx advantage per two hands.
Did I miss anything? zg
Another thing to consider when calculating your edge, is that when you don't get the ace you get a different card. If getting an Ace first gives you a 50% advantage, catching a 6 first has to be a significant disadvantage. As an example, here is a statement that can't be true:
1.) 1 in 2 correct keycard
2.) 1 in 13 catch an ace (chance if not tracking at all in a complete deck or decks)
3.) 50%/2/13 = approx 2% advantage
I might be thinking about this wrong, but it seems you need to somehow account for the other possible cards.