Question About Bet Spreads and Heat

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Syfted

New Member
#1
#1
The past couple of days I've been flipping through decks of cards, learning to count quickly and efficiently with KO. It became a lot easier after practicing an hour or two every day, so I decided to use the online BS trainer to have some fun.

Obviously there's no pressure and I can take my time- I'm not using it as a realistic simulation- but I soon discovered that KO would only be really effective if I looked at the number of decks left to play. Being close to the key count after the first deck meant jack. Being at that same count or higher, with two decks or less left, turned everything around.

So I started betting big when I had high counts late in the shoe. I'm talking 1-20 bet spreads, figure starting off with the $5 table min and jumping to $100 when I knew those face cards were on their way. It also made my play more efficient, as I stole a few of the "illustrious 18" tips (like splitting pocket tens on those really high counts with a dealer low card showing).

I haven't walked away in the red yet, though sometimes it takes me a few shoes to get back in black.

SO HERE'S THE QUESTION: If I stepped up to a real casino Blackjack table at the start of a shoe, betting the table minimum, and started betting this huge 1-20+ spread towards the end of the deck, would that draw a lot of heat? I'm hoping it wouldn't since we're really talking small dollar values at the moment ($5-$100), but eventually I'd like to work my bankroll to the point where those numbers are multiplied by ten. My roll at this point would be about a grand.

With Atlantic City $100 in gas and food away, I'm figuring I could make a few bucks when I eventually turn 21.

How suspicious are those kids down in NJ?
 
S

SystemsTrader

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
Heat depends on the individual casino. Some casinos you can get a way with a 1-20 spread no problem and others will get you tossed in 5 minutes. Doing play all with a $5-$100 spread against the average 8 deck game with KO will net you about $8/hr and since it will cost you $100 in gas you might want to consider getting a job at McDonalds instead it will be much easier. I'm just being realistic here with your tiny bankroll of $1000 you would be taking on way too much risk as well. You need about 10k min to do play all at even a $5 table safely. My suggestion is keep saving then in a few years you can hit the tables and backcount only.
 
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nc-tom

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
well syfted ST is right it does depend on the casino. i dont know about the east coast but if you played in NN where i play you would be shown the door in about 15 to 20 minutes.
 
EasyRhino

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
First, your observation of remaining decks would be correct and necessary if you were using a balanced count, like hi lo. But you're using KO. And KO is wacky, because the running count will tend to "migrate" in a positive direction over the course of a shoe. This means that, actually, a count near the key count will be worth betting into early in a shoe, but a count slighly above the key count would be worth avoiding late in a shoe. Effectively, the effect is reversed.

I don't have the details, but it has been covered in previous topics. The important thing to also remember with KO, though, is that if the count is around the pivot point, it's fairly trustworthy at any stage in the shoe, and is worth betting a large bet into.

As for heat, two things:

1) You need a large difference between your min and max bets to make any money against shoe games (like 12x-20x).
2) When playing shoes, and especially in a place with games like AC, and especially with a small bankroll, an easy way is just to backcount. Avoid negative counts, and only jump in when the count's positive. It's boring, but effective.
 
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eandre

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
Just knowing how to count isn't good enough for a long shelf life as a counter. You have to be good enough to hold a conversation, watch the baseball game at the bar and still play your hands correctly. If you get backed off, at least in my humble opinion, it's because your not good enough. The act takes longer to learn then a year or two so fly low during your training. Try flat line betting and counting first and then do a 1-4 spread, then 1-8, then 1-12 in a 6/8 deck shoe. Heat is so over rated because there are so many obvious counters that they just get caught. Many counters say that they never encounter another counter. I see 1-2 weekly and at times have had them join me at a table...I leave they're so obvious. Their eyes dart around, they watch every card, in their mind they play everyone's hand. Their spreads are textbook and they can't believe that they lose big bets during high counts. Look, the cards get laid out, they will not change until each hand is played...what's the rush? Get good enough that a glance at the tables reveals the count. Don't study it. Too many people worry too much about the math/technical side. I don't even know how fast I can count and don't care. I can glance at the table pick up the count along with watching for other compositional situations to provide me with an opportunity. I don't believe an expert counter without other advanced skills will be very successful in the long run.
 
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mjbballar23

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
ss

eandre said:
If you get backed off, at least in my humble opinion, it's because your not good enough.
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I would say thats not true for the most part. Back offs are part of the game. If you are playing a strong game you are gonna get backed off at some time or another, likely multiple times if your playing for serious money. Now if you are getting backed off within 45 minutes everywhere you go, then your probably not good enough.
 
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squeeks

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
What would you guys say about a $5-$50 bet spread, would that draw much heat. What kind of betting spreads do you guys suggest to not take much heat?
 
ihate17

ihate17

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
Depends where you play

squeeks said:
What would you guys say about a $5-$50 bet spread, would that draw much heat. What kind of betting spreads do you guys suggest to not take much heat?
Click to expand...
At most casinos, especially casinos that handle large action, your spread would not be noticed unless you did things like count out loud.
There are also casinos known to sweat every bet and here you easily can be noticed. This is true especially if you have not perfected a good act. In Vegas, among other places, the El Cortez always comes to mind as a place that often will back off your bet spread. Overall on a shoe game you should not have to worry about it. On a double deck or single deck, at most of the places that have $5 table 3/2 single deck and double deck games, you will attract attention, such as downtown Vegas and Northern Nevada.

ihate17
 
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eandre

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
Again, it's my humble opinion. Been playing 30+ years, used everything from revere to ko and was only backed off once, at the Stardust. A counter's "trap pit" when I could not leave the best session of my life. If you perfect your act and that may include switching to a level 1 count once in a while for better cover when you suspect heat, then a "gambler", especially a friendly loser will not get backed off. I disagree that back offs are part of the game. If it were I would quit over the embarassment. Just my opinion.
 
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Albundy

Member
#10
#10
eandre said:
Again, it's my humble opinion. Been playing 30+ years, used everything from revere to ko and was only backed off once, at the Stardust. A counter's "trap pit" when I could not leave the best session of my life. If you perfect your act and that may include switching to a level 1 count once in a while for better cover when you suspect heat, then a "gambler", especially a friendly loser will not get backed off. I disagree that back offs are part of the game. If it were I would quit over the embarassment. Just my opinion.
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Thank you for the input.
What heat signs bring you to quiting for the day?
Also, what stakes do you play and what spreads do you use/would
use on a 8 deck shoe?
 
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