Question about edge and CC'ing

#1
I was talking to someone who asked me about how big an edge one might get by learning to count. He has, in fact, learned the basics of counting, was not having much success.

I said it could vary, but for the most part, say about 1-2%. he indicated that he thought that but only if one is pretty accurate making, counting, betting and playing decisions. However, because his BR was small (under $5k), and he was playing $10 minimum games, he had been reluctant about some decisions called for by strategy. He wondered what sort of an edge he had because he was making the following decisions/errors (most of them, I had made myself at one time or another during my first year.). If perfect play would yield such a low gain, with his mistakes, there probably might be no gain.

1. He never splits 10's.
2. He does not double on Ace,8, period. (ploppies get mad, he imagines heat increase)
3. He doubles for less (except when a dealer has a 5,6) when he has his max bet (75) cause he does not want to lose more than $100 on a single hand.
4. He does not insure his hands when he has bust cards regardless of the count.
5. He doubles on Ace 7 against a 5,6 only.
6. Does not split 8's against a 9, 10.

Do you think these hurt the player negatively or just leads to less profit.

I ask it because he is too intimidated to post on this forum.
 

Meistro

Well-Known Member
#2
I think the best approach would be to bet less and make the right plays, instead of making sub optimal plays because he is scared of how much money he is betting. With a bankroll under 5k he shouldn't be betting $75 as his max.

It definitely sounds like he is giving up a lot, but as to how much of his edge he is giving up or whether he is beating the game I won't speculate.
 
#3
Not splitting 88, not doubling A8 be 6 and especially doubling for less are huge no no IMO. Not making certain basic strategy deviations such as splitting ten's and never doubling soft 19 isn't the in of the world. If he's worried about insurance being too volatile then wait until a higher TC like 5, otherwise he's just leaving a lot of money on the table. The insurance side bet is the most profitable basic strategy deviation.
As far as not doubling his soft 18, ridiculous, double that soft 18 against 2 to 6 in most games, 3 to 6 all games.
I forget the exact number but you're leaving about 20 to 30% of all of your total profits on the table by not using the top 20 or so BS deviations for hi lo.
 

Good Guy

Active Member
#5
The answer is easy. Tell you imaginary friend to buy software casino verite. Then he can get the answers himself and does not worry about being shy. Computers do not mind shy people.
 
#6
Ryemo said:
Are we sure this is for your “friend” and not you, Zee? This sounds awfully familiar.
I am quite past that stage since my BR is $60k now and I only play with a $175 max, so doubling or splitting is really not an issue. As I indicated in my post, I made these type or mistakes in my first year, asked questions and learnt from both, those who corrected me politely and those who chose to attempt to humiliate me. In those days, I was mostly on BJ 21.
 
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