question about insurance from the new guy

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richieb9669

Member
#1
#1
i was in a casino tonight that i hit about once a month. I was playing 6 decks. The TC was +8 using hi/low and the RC was +17 with about 2 decks left. It was me and and another person at the table who i was able to chat with during a few shoes.
The question is the dealer had an ace showing and the guy next to me had (7,2) should i have ask to take insurance out on his hand? He had a nice bet out about 6 units for me. I asked if he was going to take it and he said "he never takes it that is a suckers play"
I took it for my 17 and the dealer had bj.

So back to the question would this be a smart play?
Thanks for any feedback
 
T

Tree

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
+8 TC? Yes.

Edit: I thought you were talking about your own hand when I answered this, but regardless I think the answer is still yes if he would let you.
 
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Thunder

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
It's a tough question to answer because while it's +EV, it's a huge red flag that you're a counter. Unless the pitboss isn't nearby and you can do it very discreetly, I'd probably avoid it.
 
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Tree

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
Thunder said:
It's a tough question to answer because while it's +EV, it's a huge red flag that you're a counter. Unless the pitboss isn't nearby and you can do it very discreetly, I'd probably avoid it.
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You could always cover by saying something like "Listen, last time I had X and he was showing an ace I wished I had taken insurance". Maybe not exactly that but I'm sure you could come up with something :p
 
M

Midwestern

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
all of the above is true. Scavenger plays like this one, while valuable +ev, definitely blow your cover, which is negative ev in the long run!
 
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tthree

Banned
#6
#6
Dont over bet your advantage

Taking a large bet with a huge advantage carries risk of ruin considerations if you have to small a bankroll. If you choose to ignore the cautions given by other posters dont over bet relative to your bankroll. I believe most casinos allow you to insure for less than half the base bet. I usually never consider insuring for less because I am not over betting my bankroll and only insure in an advantage situation. So full insurance makes the most sense on my bets if taking insurance is warranted.

I think the number quoted most often is dont bet more than 1% of your bankroll on any bet. To determine the insurance bet in this situation you would include your bet in the total to be kept under 1% of total bankroll.
 
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MangoJ

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
tthree said:
Taking a large bet with a huge advantage carries risk of ruin considerations if you have to small a bankroll.
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This is not generally true for the insurance bet, if your hand is strong enough.
The reason is: your hand and the insurance side bet are anti-correlated. (If you win the insurance bet, you lose or tie your hand - and if your hand is strong and loose the insurance bet, you are likely to win the hand).

The variance of the combined bet (hand + insurance) is lower than variance of individual hand and individual insurance bet, and hence insuring a strong hand reduces variance, and the concept of overbetting does not apply.
 
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tthree

Banned
#8
#8
MangoJ said:
This is not generally true for the insurance bet, if your hand is strong enough.
The reason is: your hand and the insurance side bet are anti-correlated. (If you win the insurance bet, you lose or tie your hand - and if your hand is strong and loose the insurance bet, you are likely to win the hand).

The variance of the combined bet (hand + insurance) is lower than variance of individual hand and individual insurance bet, and hence insuring a strong hand reduces variance, and the concept of overbetting does not apply.
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Thanks for the info. I am still learning AP play. I only comment were I feel my level of expertise is sufficient to be useful to the poster. This has a twofold effect. I dont give the poster bad information in most cases. And were I feel confident in my knowledge the people who know far more than I do can help fine tune my understanding as you just did.

In this case the added insurance bet could be large enough to dilute the effect you are referring to. I always wondered why Ive seen advice to take insurance more frequently with strong hands.

I have a relatively small bankroll so risk aversion based playing decisions are very important considerations. Do you have any other recommendations for play modifications that are important to reduce variance?
 
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MangoJ

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
tthree said:
In this case the added insurance bet could be large enough to dilute the effect you are referring to.
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This is just a gut feeling, I think I would not bet more than my total initial wager on insurance, if you are close to overbetting. If you play two hands, and one is strong and one is weak, I would insure both hands. If both hands are weak, you could insure one of them.

I have a relatively small bankroll so risk aversion based playing decisions are very important considerations. Do you have any other recommendations for play modifications that are important to reduce variance?
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RA indices are the first on my mind. You just basically avoid doubles and splits for marginal EV increases.

Another risk averse move is to play two hands of 1 unit instead of 1 hand of 2 units. Multiple hands are not independent (which would be even better), but not that much correlated (maybe 30%, but significantly below 100%). Then you get less variance for the same 2 unit total bet.
 
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