Question about standard deviation
- Thread starter JohnCrover
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Alright so I have been thinking of a way to calculate standard deviation while I vary my bet according to the true count and I have come up with the following method:
I take the frequency at which I make my different wagers then I find the mean, then I find the standard deviation of my average bet in the following game i'm playing for one hand then to find the standard deviation for the amount of hands I have played by just taking the square root of the number of hands I have played then multiplying that my the standard deviation of my median bet.
Let me try to explain myself further since i'm having trouble conveying my message.
Here's an example: I only wong in TC +1, at TC+1 I bet $100, TC +2 I bet $200, TC +3 I bet 300, TC +4 I bet $400, in that example I would find the frequency at which each true count occurs through computer simulation, if I were to guess my average bet in this example would be about $220, then I would find the standard deviation of $220 and then go about the previously stated way of finding the SD for several hands just by taking the square root of the number of hands I have played and then multiplying that by the standard deviation of $220.
Sorry if you're having trouble understanding me. I'm not much of a math guy and I'm having some trouble getting my head around this, thanks.
Edit: that post doesn't take in to account how to account for the house advantage. I'm just going to reread Wizard of Odd's post like 50 times and take a walk and maybe I will get it.
I take the frequency at which I make my different wagers then I find the mean, then I find the standard deviation of my average bet in the following game i'm playing for one hand then to find the standard deviation for the amount of hands I have played by just taking the square root of the number of hands I have played then multiplying that my the standard deviation of my median bet.
Let me try to explain myself further since i'm having trouble conveying my message.
Here's an example: I only wong in TC +1, at TC+1 I bet $100, TC +2 I bet $200, TC +3 I bet 300, TC +4 I bet $400, in that example I would find the frequency at which each true count occurs through computer simulation, if I were to guess my average bet in this example would be about $220, then I would find the standard deviation of $220 and then go about the previously stated way of finding the SD for several hands just by taking the square root of the number of hands I have played and then multiplying that by the standard deviation of $220.
Sorry if you're having trouble understanding me. I'm not much of a math guy and I'm having some trouble getting my head around this, thanks.
Edit: that post doesn't take in to account how to account for the house advantage. I'm just going to reread Wizard of Odd's post like 50 times and take a walk and maybe I will get it.
Last edited:
"Alright so I have been thinking of a way to calculate standard deviation while I vary my bet according to the true count and I have come up with the following method:"
So, I guess you're saying you don't have BJA3, right, because it's all laid out for you there.
"I take the frequency at which I make my different wagers then I find the mean,"
The mean has nothing to do with anything. Your expectation plays no role in calculating the standard deviation. The mean is close enough to zero so as not to matter.
"then I find the standard deviation of my average bet in the following game i'm playing for one hand then to find the standard deviation for the amount of hands I have played by just taking the square root of the number of hands I have played then multiplying that my the standard deviation of my median bet."
Nope. Wrong. I told you above that you couldn't use the average bet. I was very clear about that. Did you not understand?
"Let me try to explain myself further since i'm having trouble conveying my message."
You're having no trouble conveying your message; rather you're having trouble understanding what you're being told. Did you go to Mike Shackleford's site that I sent you? He explains as well. You're hell-bent on doing it your way, and I've already told you that your way is wrong.
"Here's an example: I only wong in TC +1, at TC+1 I bet $100, TC +2 I bet $200, TC +3 I bet 300, TC +4 I bet $400, in that example I would find the frequency at which each true count occurs through computer simulation, if I were to guess my average bet in this example would be about $220, then I would find the standard deviation of $220 and then go about the previously stated way of finding the SD for several hands just by taking the square root of the number of hands I have played and then multiplying that by the standard deviation of $220."
Not close to being correct.
"Sorry if you're having trouble understanding me."
That's not the problem! I understand you perfectly. The problem is that YOU don't understand ME, and I'm not the one who's confused!
"I'm not much of a math guy and I'm having some trouble getting my head around this, thanks.
Edit: that post doesn't take in to account how to account for the house advantage. I'm just going to reread Wizard of Odd's post like 50 times and take a walk and maybe I will get it."
Again, I'm imagining you don't have BJA3.
Don
So, I guess you're saying you don't have BJA3, right, because it's all laid out for you there.
"I take the frequency at which I make my different wagers then I find the mean,"
The mean has nothing to do with anything. Your expectation plays no role in calculating the standard deviation. The mean is close enough to zero so as not to matter.
"then I find the standard deviation of my average bet in the following game i'm playing for one hand then to find the standard deviation for the amount of hands I have played by just taking the square root of the number of hands I have played then multiplying that my the standard deviation of my median bet."
Nope. Wrong. I told you above that you couldn't use the average bet. I was very clear about that. Did you not understand?
"Let me try to explain myself further since i'm having trouble conveying my message."
You're having no trouble conveying your message; rather you're having trouble understanding what you're being told. Did you go to Mike Shackleford's site that I sent you? He explains as well. You're hell-bent on doing it your way, and I've already told you that your way is wrong.
"Here's an example: I only wong in TC +1, at TC+1 I bet $100, TC +2 I bet $200, TC +3 I bet 300, TC +4 I bet $400, in that example I would find the frequency at which each true count occurs through computer simulation, if I were to guess my average bet in this example would be about $220, then I would find the standard deviation of $220 and then go about the previously stated way of finding the SD for several hands just by taking the square root of the number of hands I have played and then multiplying that by the standard deviation of $220."
Not close to being correct.
"Sorry if you're having trouble understanding me."
That's not the problem! I understand you perfectly. The problem is that YOU don't understand ME, and I'm not the one who's confused!
"I'm not much of a math guy and I'm having some trouble getting my head around this, thanks.
Edit: that post doesn't take in to account how to account for the house advantage. I'm just going to reread Wizard of Odd's post like 50 times and take a walk and maybe I will get it."
Again, I'm imagining you don't have BJA3.
Don