Question for DonS

[21forme]

Don,

I'm trying to explain to another AP why BS is not the same as playing an index at TC=0 (eg., 16vT).

Can you explain in your usual lucid style, so I can pass it along?

Thanks.

 

[DSchles]

Don,

I'm trying to explain to another AP why BS is not the same as playing an index at TC=0 (eg., 16vT).

Can you explain in your usual lucid style, so I can pass it along?

Thanks.

By definition, BS is defined as the optimal play to make with knowledge only of your first two cards and the dealer's upcard. It makes the assumption that those three cards have been removed from the pack (as opposed to a "thought experiment," where you would think of those three cards but keep them in the full pack).

So, the count after those three cards are removed will not always be exactly zero. In the case of 16 v. T, where you need a TC of at least 0 to stand, BS is to hit, because there is no way you can have 16 vs. T where the RC -- and hence the TC -- won't be negative. For Hi-Lo, the RC will always be -1, and the TC will be -1/x, where x is the number of decks you're playing against.

Clear?

Don

 

[21forme]

Yes, thanks.

 

[Tater]

By definition, BS is defined as the optimal play to make with knowledge only of your first two cards and the dealer's upcard. It makes the assumption that those three cards have been removed from the pack (as opposed to a "thought experiment," where you would think of those three cards but keep them in the full pack).

So, the count after those three cards are removed will not always be exactly zero. In the case of 16 v. T, where you need a TC of at least 0 to stand, BS is to hit, because there is no way you can have 16 vs. T where the RC -- and hence the TC -- won't be negative. For Hi-Lo, the RC will always be -1, and the TC will be -1/x, where x is the number of decks you're playing against.

Clear?

Don

Pretty much. But what do "you" do on first hand 16. 10,4,2 vs 10? Now your RC is 0. No?

 

[Dummy]

Pretty much. But what do "you" do on first hand 16. 10,4,2 vs 10? Now your RC is 0. No?

The Hiopt2 RC is -1 so you should hit if you like a lot of heat. I would still stand. The decision is a coin flip in shoe games.

The CDA says to stand but it is a virtual coin flip for 6 decks, off the top EV for standing -54.12 and hitting -54.13. It is a much stronger stand decision at SD off the top, EV for standing -54.48 and hitting -54.91. Standing wins either way.

 

[Tater]

The Hiopt2 RC is -1 so you should hit if you like a lot of heat. I would still stand. The decision is a coin flip in shoe games.

The CDA says to stand but it is a virtual coin flip for 6 decks, off the top EV for standing -54.12 and hitting -54.13. It is a much stronger stand decision at SD off the top, EV for standing -54.48 and hitting -54.91. Standing wins either way.

Nice run Gale. But my question is to HoFer and what he would do on HiLo.

 

[DSchles]

Pretty much. But what do "you" do on first hand 16. 10,4,2 vs 10? Now your RC is 0. No?

Yes. And so you stand. And, it's the right play. The correct BS for multi-card 16 v. 10 is to stand.

Don

 

[DSchles]

Nice run Gale. But my question is to HoFer and what he would do on HiLo.

I'd stand.

Don

 

[Tater]

Hmmm. Interesting. Me too. But I would've bet you'd said Hit. Thank you kind Sir!

 

[DSchles]

Hmmm. Interesting. Me too. But I would've bet you'd said Hit. Thank you kind Sir!

Actually, I play the RPC, which counts the 2 as -1 and the others at +/-2. So, ironically, my count of -1 would tell me (incorrectly) to hit! But, you asked me what I'd do if I were playing Hi-Lo. As previously mentioned, stand is better by 0.01, which kind of makes the whole thing moot.

Don

 

[Tater]

Yep. I thought your formula in post #2 was very good. So in RPC, you are standing at -1, correct? How about -2 in RPC?

 

[DSchles]

Yep. I thought your formula in post #2 was very good. So in RPC, you are standing at -1, correct? How about -2 in RPC?

No, the RPC index is 0. What I said was that, off the top of the deck, it gives the wrong play for 10,4,2, v.10.

Don

 

[Tater]

No, the RPC index is 0. What I said was that, off the top of the deck, it gives the wrong play for 10,4,2, v.10.

Don

Don. With RPC index at 0. Off the top of the deck, does it also give the wrong play for 10,5,A vs 10? Or 10,2,3,Avs10?

 

[Tater]

The Hiopt2 RC is -1 so you should hit if you like a lot of heat. I would still stand. The decision is a coin flip in shoe games.

The CDA says to stand but it is a virtual coin flip for 6 decks, off the top EV for standing -54.12 and hitting -54.13. It is a much stronger stand decision at SD off the top, EV for standing -54.48 and hitting -54.91. Standing wins either way.

CDA? (Certain dumb asses?) I'm only kidding. At what point does the EV begin to show signifcant separation in the indices for SD? -1,-2,-3? Tc-1?

 

[DSchles]

Don. With RPC index at 0. Off the top of the deck, does it also give the wrong play for 10,5,A vs 10? Or 10,2,3,Avs10?

For the plays you mention, the RPC isn't zero. It is -4 and -3, respectively. The RPC would this tell you to hit both. That would be, ironically, wrong for the first play (more negative count!) but right for the second one.

Don