Question for seasoned profitting Black Jack players (2 deck or 6 deck?)

gronbog

Well-Known Member
#42
Forgive me. I missed the fact that you seem to be Wonging out at -2. I don't see the exact rules anywhere in this thread, but assuming 6D S17 DAS with penetration of 4.5/6 and what seems to be the betting spread you've arrived at through discussion here ($10 at -1, 0, $25 at +1, $50 at +2, $100 at +3 and $200 at +4) I still put your RoR at 37.87% which is extremely high. If your game is H17 it is 42.44%. All of this assumes that you are executing perfectly (most people do not) and that you're really do Wong out of all those negative counts (many folks compromise on this).

I now also see some suggestion that your bankroll is replenishable, however this part of discussion started with you wondering whether you could play forever on your $5,000 bankroll. There is a high probability that you will not, unless you are willing to resize your bets either now or after significant loss of bankroll, which you have already experienced at least twice according to your logs.
 
#43
I realize there is a high possibility of going tilt...but a greater possibility of not.

I am totally aware.

But, what good does it do to say that I have a $10k bank roll....then, if I lose $5,000, well...I am back to the point that I have a $5,000 bank roll...and the cards aren't going to say "well, he is playing on an original $10k bank roll, so he is DUE now to start winning."

Once I lose the first $5k if it goes that way, then I have to deal with the reality that I am under new odds (which would be the same odds that I am at RIGHT NOW!)

So, it is fine to accept a $5k bank roll...and, quite honestly, if I go tilt, then I can move on in life, and all is fine. It is not the end of the world.

My casino is H17...and the sad part is that you cannot resplit aces, which was a huge part of my $2,000 loss during that cycle (which I have turned around since then).

When I say "play forever" I mean never spending any of that money, including winnings. So, when/if my bankroll grows...I never cash out. I still keep all winnings with the bankroll.
 
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gronbog

Well-Known Member
#44
All is fine if you understand and accept the situation. The part about being "due" to start winning if you've lost half of you bankroll is pure voodoo. However your next statement seems to indicate that you understand that.
 

gronbog

Well-Known Member
#45
kcchiefsfan1982 said:
When I say "play forever" I mean never spending any of that money, including winnings. So, when/if my bankroll grows...I never cash out. I still keep all winnings with the bankroll.
Yes, and that fits the mathematical definition of RoR as used in BJA3 and by the CV software. It also assumes that you never resize your bets as bankroll grows or depletes.
 
#47
ZenPrince said:
Longevity is important to me and I seem to enjoy grinding more than most full-time pros. I've been playing full-time for five years and don't like to travel beyond a five-state region (that includes Nevada). I've totalled 4,000 hours and $600k in winnings during this time. I'll admit I do play a lot of three-, four-, and six-deck games as well. By the way, I've tried to hook up for lunch with you through a third party. I'll bet we would recognize each other, lol.
Do you have any advices as far as longevity in Vegas other than the usual advices such as short sessions, avoid playing too much DD, don't act like a counter, etc. What do you do to get enough hours in and not get backed off too fast? I'm really intrigued by your ability to get in 4000 hours! I am backed off way too often and my spread is pretty modest.
 
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#48
King777 said:
Do you have any advices as far as longevity in Vegas other than the usual advices such as short sessions, avoid playing too much DD, don't act like a counter, etc. What do you do to get enough hours in and not get backed off too fast? I'm really intrigued by your ability to get in 4000 hours! I am backed off way too often and my spread is pretty modest.
I spread my play across a five-state region, which includes a small amount of play in Vegas. I maintain spreadsheets of dozens of casinos I play on a regular basis that show days and shifts last played, results, and heat measurements. I try to never overplay any particular place. I adjust spreads to fit particular tolerance levels at a given casino. If I do get backed off, I avoid that place for months and come back with a different look and name.
 
#49
ZenPrince said:
I spread my play across a five-state region, which includes a small amount of play in Vegas. I maintain spreadsheets of dozens of casinos I play on a regular basis that show days and shifts last played, results, and heat measurements. I try to never overplay any particular place. I adjust spreads to fit particular tolerance levels at a given casino. If I do get backed off, I avoid that place for months and come back with a different look and name.
it also helps to play shoe games vs DD right?
 
#50
King777 said:
it also helps to play shoe games vs DD right?
Double deck (with correct penetration & typical rules) gives you the best chance to be profitable.

The ONLY thing shoe games might help with is that there are more of them, so you can have a better chance of not being detected as a card counter, but that is it!
 

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#53
kcchiefsfan1982 said:
The ONLY thing shoe games might help with is that there are more of them, so you can have a better chance of not being detected as a card counter, but that is it!
Here is what I like about shoe games. It is about true count frequencies. Let's take a 6 deck game, 1 deck cut off, standard rules, (for me) h17, DAS, LS. Take a look at the chart from Don's book BJA3 for such a game (page 249 in my book which is in pieces now). So I place my max bet at TC +4. The TC frequency says you see a +4 count 2.84% and above TC +4 another 4.19%. So I am placing my max bet about 7% of the time. Aggressive exiting of negative counts or wonging out actually manipulates these percentages in your favor, but let's forget about that for the moment and just assume play all approach.

So 7 out of every 100 hands played is a max bet situation. And that is what you are really after...that is where you make your money. Unfortunately those max bet counts aren't evenly spread out. You might go through several shoes without seeing even one Max bet count. And then when you get there, you might see several in a row and then the shoe ends because you are playing with other players.

So if you can get a good heads up game where you are getting 50 rounds and hit that Max bet with a couple decks until the cut card, you can get 20+ rounds at max bet, all in one shot.
 

DSchles

Well-Known Member
#54
Two comments: 1) where you write, "So if you can get a good heads up game where you are getting 50 rounds," you obviously meant 250.
2) If you play DD, you get even more max-bet opportunities, so when you write, "Here is what I like about shoe games," you ought to like the more frequent max-bet opportunities for DD even more, no?

Don
 

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#55
DSchles said:
Two comments: 1) where you write, "So if you can get a good heads up game where you are getting 50 rounds," you obviously meant 250.
2) If you play DD, you get even more max-bet opportunities, so when you write, "Here is what I like about shoe games," you ought to like the more frequent max-bet opportunities for DD even more, no?

Don
The 50 rounds comments was in reference to a good shoe. So a 6 deck game (312 cards) dealt to 5 decks (260 cards) is roughly 50 rounds using the 5.5 cards (rounded) per round method. No?

Yes, of course a double deck game will result in more max bet opportunities over the same period of time compared to a 6 deck shoe game. Of course that would be sitting and playing through many shuffles and times through the cards, which I don't do for other reasons.

I think I have stated my position clearly on double deck where I play. Overall, double deck is not compatible to my goals of longevity. So I won't play: any double deck game known to be a counter trap (or even suspected), any double deck game that is part of a casino chain or group that is known to pass along information, any double deck game that the casino is a known contributor to the databases. That leaves 2 or 3, sometimes 4 double deck games that I am willing to play, usually independent type casinos not associated with anyone.

So I am just saying that since I opt for a lot of 6 deck shoe games, one of the things I really like is when you get that heads up game, the count goes significantly positive, fairly early and you can score many max bet opportunities in one shoe, and not only one shoe, but one quick shoe meaning not a lot of time for an evaluation, because playing heads up for the most part the player controls the speed of the game, unless you have a very uncooperative dealer. So it is just a perfect scenario.

Now of course to get to that perfect scenario, I start playing and bail out of a lot of shoes.
 

DSchles

Well-Known Member
#56
Ah, OK. Yes, about 50 rounds. Maybe 48. In any event, I've had myriad such shoes and some very big wins (and losses!) playing alone with max bets for the majority of the shoe. I've both won and lost fortunes in those situations, and once had both of the experiences in consecutive sessions (Harrah's followed by Bellagio). Everything I won at Harrah's I gave back an hour later at Bellagio. Sad.

Don
 
#58
ZenPrince said:
There's a DD game in Vegas from which I have won $80k over a four-year period, and am still allowed to play there (plus room and food comps and promotional chips).
I know which place you're talking about! It's crazy that you play rated there with no problem hahaha. How often do you recommend I visit this place?
 
#59
DSchles said:
Ah, OK. Yes, about 50 rounds. Maybe 48. In any event, I've had myriad such shoes and some very big wins (and losses!) playing alone with max bets for the majority of the shoe. I've both won and lost fortunes in those situations, and once had both of the experiences in consecutive sessions (Harrah's followed by Bellagio). Everything I won at Harrah's I gave back an hour later at Bellagio. Sad.
Not long ago, I had a 6D shoe go positive very early. I dropped 10K in the first half of the shoe, then recovered it in the second half and finished the shoe net zero!
 
#60
King777 said:
I know which place you're talking about! It's crazy that you play rated there with no problem hahaha. How often do you recommend I visit this place?
First off, they don't contribute to national databases so the risks of playing rated are reduced. Secondly, I never play there more than once per month and am careful to rotate days and shifts. Thirdly, I limit my wins. Fourthly, I do things to minimize the appearance of how much I win. Fifthly, I never spread to more than $400.
 
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