Question for the Mayor

[MJ]

Mayor,

I am a relative newbie to advantage play techniques so I was wondering if you could give me(and perhaps other viewers of this board) some insight into the following question:

Which advantage play technique is more profitable in the long run, card counting with a 1% advantage or Ace Sequencing(player can track 4 Aces/shoe)?

I realize that you endorsed the book Blackjack Ace Prediction so I figured you might have some insight into this topic.

Thanks for any help you can provide Mayor!

-MJ

 

[The Mayor]

My thoughts...

You asked some tough questions...

>Which advantage play technique is more profitable in the long run, card counting with a 1% advantage or Ace Sequencing(player can track 4 Aces/shoe)?

Tracking an ace is not the same as getting the ace. Things can go wrong -- the cards can be cut between the key card and the ace during the shuffle, the key card comes out in the same round as the ace, etc. But if you can perfectly track and steer 4 aces, then that is far superior to counting. By the way, it is more common to get a next-card flasher and spot an ace than it is to be able to steer an ace.

The main difficulty, however, is finding games that are vulnerable, and being able to play them to put in the same kind of hours that a counter could put in. If you decide you want to be a professional ace tracker, and do that alone, you will spend 99% of your time scouting games. When you find a game that is trackable, it may be marginal. But, once in a while you will find a gold mine.

I think the right approach is to always be aware of these methods, as you count (or shuffle track or whatever), and if the opportunity comes your way then pounce.

--Mayor

 

[gehrig]

the obvious answer is...

to use *all* available tools. what's wrong with counting even with an ace side count, attempting to track/steer aces, to preferentially cut to the top plus "slugs", to cut into/out of play a seen bottom card, to be alert for a hole card flash, to "play" the 'stiff, and to maintain one's act ? if you can't ride a 15 speed bike while listening to your walkman, staying out of vehicular traffic, and enjoying the scenary...stay on the sidewalk with a one speed, fat tired bike.

 

[MJ]

Thanks for the advice!

 

[schmoe]

sequencing opportunties not that rare

>Tracking an ace is not the same as getting the ace. Things can go wrong -- the cards can be cut between the key card and the ace during the shuffle, the key card comes out in the same round as the ace, etc. But if you can perfectly track and steer 4 aces, then that is far superior to counting. By the way, it is more common to get a next-card flasher and spot an ace than it is to be able to steer an ace.

>The main difficulty, however, is finding games that are vulnerable, and being able to play them to put in the same kind of hours that a counter could put in. If you decide you want to be a professional ace tracker, and do that alone, you will spend 99% of your time scouting games. When you find a game that is trackable, it may be marginal. But, once in a while you will find a gold mine.

Tracking aces takes much more skill than counting. But vulnerable shuffles are all over the place. There is at least one good shuffle in every major gaming destination I have checked the last few months. When you can sequence a place, you can sequence most of the dealers on all of the shifts. The casinos have absolutely no clue what you are doing the majority of the time.

The problem is that the less players at the table the better. So if you can only play for red or green you either have to go in at 4am or develop some strong body odor or something.

It takes skill, but you have high EV, low variance, and low heat.