Question from a new AP

[Wisco 21]

So Ive been practicing now for a few weeks counting down decks no prob in about 30 secs. I have been using hi/lo but thinking about trying red 7 to remove the deck calculation for TC.

I only have two casinos in driving distance. One is at about a .57 house edge (6 deck, DAS, RSA (To 3 hands), split to 4 hands otherwise, aces only receive 1, no surrender, obviously 3-2, and a consitent dealer set 75% pen at all the tables. This is in WI. Almost no heat there from when I have gone and played. But I dont think you could wong in or back count itd be to conspicious there. The other is Hochuck which is farther and has worse rules.

I have a full setup at home where I totally replicate this, i.e shuffle machine i double shuffle with, table felt, chips, shoe, cut cards, i do everything exactly as they do.

This game should be beatable with a 1-12 spread. My sessions are either lose all or double your money. But so far out of 8 sessions at home where i start with 25-30 units, i have lost 6, and only won 2. Obviously this is possible with a swing but my concern is that I have only had a TC as high as +6 in any of these sessions and usually it doesnt pass +4 so im never getting anywhere near at 12 unit spread. Usually i do make it 4-7 shoes into these sessions before i either win or lose, is this also normal?

Sidenote: tips on counting at the casino because i can count down decks in pairs all day but looking at a table or even my own setup i turn into a sloth.

Looking for general input or thoughts on this.

 

[Wisco 21]

The only Idea I have here is my shuffling isn't sufficient but i cut the deck 3 times and alternate which side it goes on the machine, i shuffle it twice, and ive tried hand shuffling all 6 decks. None to a different result. Also, i have played probably more like 20-25 sessions on my setup but have only taken 8 to termination due to time or other things I had to do before i finished.

 

[Meistro]

With wonging in or back counting you don't just stand there and hover, you look at the table for one round, decide to play or move on. You are right that standing there and watching would be too conspicuous.

It sounds like you are doing a lot of good things. I recommend that you continue to put more time in to practice. It is beyond common to go on a three max bet downswing. Because your edge in blackjack is so small the variance is quite high, you can easily lose 20 max bets in a session without making any mistakes. This is why you should be conservative with your bankroll. Especially when you are just starting out your max bet should be pretty low, even if your bankroll can sustain higher.

Keep practicing at home. You need to put in at least 60 to 100 hours before you hit the casino. I also recommend that when you think you are ready to hit the casino you record a session at home and upload it so that we can review it for any mistakes / give you a skills test and certify you as casino ready.

 

[mcallister3200]

Not seeing anything above +6 TC and usually not above +4 is normal for a shoe game with that pen (very average, not terrible or good.), you have to make most of your money between TC 2-4 on such games, so you’re going to be best off getting your top bet out there by +4 and most of it out there by +3. Gonna have some wild swings just take it slow, get acclimated to them.

Re: counting in a casino. Wait till the dealer starts bringing around the second card of each persons hand, and just count each players hand in pairs and end with the dealers upcard. Use the same practice at home if you haven’t been.

 

[DSchles]

You didn't mention a very important rule: the casino is obviously H17, otherwise your house edge wouldn't make sense.

Nor did you mention at what counts you make which bets (bet ramp). Saying that you spread 1-12 doesn't tell us that. If you aren't making your max bet by +5, saying that the top bet is 12 units is somewhat useless, because you won't get to make it often enough to matter.

Consider getting practice software and/or using any one of the many phone apps for practice. It's infinitely more efficient than trying to shuffle and deal to yourself. And, it tracks the count and tells you if you've made mistakes with the count or the strategy.

Finally, you didn't mention playing deviations. Are you not using any indices to do that?

Don

 

[Wisco 21]

Sorry yes itd hit 17 and i was running this as my ramp

-/0=
1=2
2=4
3=6
4=8
5=10
6=12

With some camoflage thrown in as necessary.

I was using phone apps bit wanted to replicate the casino as accuratly as possible to make sure my results were somewhat valid (at least over short term) and get the most accurate counting practice.

Also note i change my position on the felt from 1st to 3rd and deal the cards as they would be in the casino at the speed the dealers here do. (They are slow).

 

[KewlJ]

This is only a 1-12 spread in theory. In reality it is a 1-8 spread at best (maybe 1-6), because the TC above +4 occur too infrequently to have much benefit. I mean you could extend it out even further and playing a 1-30 spread, max betting $300 at TC +15. Do you see what good that would be doing you? Almost nothing.

Reread the two posts immediately above by Don and McAllister3200. Your target for getting max bet out in such a game has to be TC +3 or +4 range. Getting it out any later than that just has little benefit. Unfortunately, anyone playing with a limited bankroll, that will screw with your RoR. You may have to make some adjustments, playing a little higher RoR than you would like and/or less max bet that you would like. Sort of find a compromise position, while you grow.

Add on: And BTW, THIS is one of those areas that software (I recommend Norm's products) is so beneficial. You play around with the numbers and find that compromise position that works for you.

 

[21forme]

Agree with all of the above. Get your max bet out at +4. It's a mediocre game, so you need to get the money out. If and when you play with the software, you'll note that the worse the penetration, the lower the TC where you'll want your max bet out. The bet ramp you specified above is optimal for a game with less than 1 deck cut off.

 

[Meistro]

All of this advice about how much to bet is quite foolish because without knowing OP's bankroll you have no idea to know whether he should be betting 12 units at TC +4 or not. What you should do, OP, is simulate your game, determine your advantage per true count, and make sure you are not betting more than advantage * bankroll * .75

This formula is the maximum you should ever bet. You may wish to bet less than it, and as someone who is just starting out almost certainly should.

 

[21forme]

Meistro - Since the OP didn't talk dollars or BR, I stand by my comments. OP needs to translate units into $ with an acceptable ROR.

 

[KewlJ]

All of this advice about how much to bet is quite foolish because without knowing OP's bankroll you have no idea to know whether he should be betting 12 units at TC +4 or not.

I don't think the advice given is foolish at all. I for one didn't say the OP should be betting 12 units (or any specific amount) at TC+4. Neither did Don, nor Mcallister. The OP didn't offer specifics of his BR or RoR comfort level, so no one offered anything specific. All that was suggested was at very mediocre shoe games, the max bet has to be out in the TC+3 / TC +4 range.

As a matter of fact, I specifically said the OP should play around with software to determine the amounts based on his specific BR and circumstances. So your criticism seems very unfounded.

 

[xengrifter]

This game should be beatable with a 1-12 spread. My sessions are either lose all or double your money. But so far out of 8 sessions at home where i start with 25-30 units, i have lost 6, and only won 2. Obviously this is possible with a swing but my concern is that I have only had a TC as high as +6 in any of these sessions and usually it doesnt pass +4 so im never getting anywhere near at 12 unit spread.

How many min bets total to your BR?

 

[Hell'nBack]

How many min bets total to your BR?

For me, the answer is 6,000.

 

[Wisco 21]

Not a lot, I only play $5 mins for now. Trying to build my bankroll from the meager sum I currently have. Maybe 150-200 min bets. This obviously has an astronomical ror but this is a hobby i want to pursue. I also realise that its no more than a risky hobby with that kindve br. Adding to it when I can and continuing to practice for now.

 

[Meistro]

It is probably best that you have such a tiny bankroll to begin with anyway. While you are just starting out and getting some practice, there is no point risking a lot of money. I recommend you stick with a 2 unit max bet for now, which you can increase as you add to your bankroll (just save $100 or $200 a paycheck or whatever you can afford).

Whatever you do, do not bet 12 units at TC +4 as people in this thread have been recommending. This would be a very bad idea given your limited bankroll.

 

[KewlJ]

Whatever you do, do not bet 12 units at TC +4 as people in this thread have been recommending. This would be a very bad idea given your limited bankroll.

Now you are just making shit up. Show me where anyone recommended a wager of 12 units at TC +4?

What mcallister, Don and myself all said was that whatever his max bet was going to be, based on his own BR and RoR tolerance, that the top wager should be placed by TC +4 or even TC +3. Placing max bet any later, just has no real benefit. You doubling down on untrue statements and twisting what was said is very dishonest.

 

[JohnCrover]

Considering your bank roll is 1,000 dollars you have almost no chance to grow. You're going to be winning about $9 an hour at the game and when taking in to account the cost of gas and food you're going to be losing money unless you decide to sit down at the BJ table for 10 hours each time you decide to take a trip to one of the two casinos in your area, and if you do that then you're going to get backed off or barred from both casinos in your area then you're going to be done. This story isn't going to have a happy ending. Please come back to the forums to cry when you fail though, I need a good laugh.

 

[xengrifter]

For me, the answer is 6,000.

So you can bet the 12u max at +1.

 

[Wisco 21]

Switched to red 7 to remove my deck estimation, changed to 1-12 spread by tc +4, added my indices. 3 sessions won in less than 3 shoes each. Obviously short term variance but also much more positive then the last 8-12 sessions. Almost lost one but came back nd got it. Again winning is doubling losing is total loss of 25 units.

Planning on getting software soon to run my long term epectations but as far as practice goes things are improving, speed increasing.

 

[Meistro]

My point exactly. You guys told him to massively overbet his bankroll, and he listened to you and did it. That is why it is important to think before you give advice.