Question mostly for Sunny

[leatherguyray]

Lonesome Gambler advice

Part of the problem with what's happening is your belief that your old system was a winner. You can read the FAQs for a longer answer, but here's a summary: betting systems that are not dependent on deck composition (like card counting betting strategies) will not provide you with a positive expectation. You'll be playing the same negative expectation game that everyone else is but with more variance. Progression systems are likely to show consistent wins over a large period of time, but they'll eventually give you a loss greater than all your wins combined. You simply hadn't hit that point yet (fortunately).

Again, I strongly recommend reading up on and understanding EV and the law of large numbers. Counting won't cause you to win money based on any sort of pattern—it just lets you put more money on the felt when the remaining cards favor you. You're still going to lose a lot, and when you are putting big bets out, you'll still lose a lot of them too. Over time, your wins will overshadow your losses; in the meantime, it may seem that you're always losing. This is just a short-term result, and it doesn't accurately reflect your expectation. Understanding the two concepts that I mentioned at the beginning of this paragraph is essential and will answer your questions thoroughly.

As for more indices and your betting spread: the game you're playing is decent, but a 1-8 spread isn't going to provide you with much of an advantage. I strongly, strongly recommend getting CVCX and using the simulations to develop an optimal bet spread based on your counting system, indices used, bankroll, and the amount of risk you're comfortable with. By doing this, you'll know your expectation (EV), your expected hourly income, your risk of ruin, what kind of variance you can expect, etc. In the meantime, learn more indices and keep practicing.

In reply to a question asking how many hours I played I have just posted a pretty detailed 13 month record. I do sincerely appreciate all the advice you have shared and please be assured that I will undertake to implement all of it. I do realize much of what you have said and my only real question regarding losing counting for some time now is related to what I mentioned before. Playing the same games at the same places over the same time periods and losing more times at the table than I ever have. I was just having trouble (even with all the knowledge presented) why I would all of a sudden begin being a "constant loser" ...allbeit short term hopefully...instead of the win some and lose some I have experienced before. The cards are no different and the play is no different other than those half dozen indices connected to the count. The single difference is the betting accourding to count. Maybe just coincidence that it was time to begin a rough patch about the time I began counting. I'll keep on keeping on, especially armed with the information you have provided. I can ride out bad flux. I just wanted to know what you have told me. Thanks so much.

 

[Billy C1]

Good record keeping

I am only posting this record to attempt giving a solid answer to Billy C1's question. I AM NOT posting it trying to suppport system play and I am NOT attempting to recommend that anyone else try system play. It is answer to a question. Nothing more.

Here is the last 13 month actual record before I quit the system and undertook counting. It should be sufficient record to give you a good idea how much I played and play today. I average about the same hours day in and day out, week in and week out, month in and month out, etc. etc.

I averaged 5 sessions per week x 56 weeks = 280 sessions played

Session durations ranged from 1 to 12 hours each ... probably averaged 3-6

I won 4 out each 7 times at the table = 120 losses and 160 winning sessions

My losses for 120 of the sessions was $24,600.00 (That is $200.00 per losing session plus $600.00 in doubles, splits, etc on the last hand before quitting)

My wins for the other 160 sessions was $31,450.00

My winnings, in pocket, are $6,850.00 for that period

13 Months = $526.92 per month

For 56 weeks that averages = $122.32 won per week

That averages $42.81 actual winnings per winning session (About $7.00 per hr based upon average 6 hour sessions.)

The way I have managed my play is:

I buy into a session with $200.00 and never invest more than that in any single session. Losing the $200.00 buy is my loss limit with the occasional exception of needing to double or split, etc on the last hand before exiting.

I never leave the casino a loser if I have, at any time, been ahead by as much as one half of my buy.

I begin a session with a $5.00 base bet unit

Zero is my loss limit

If my table bankroll increases to $300.00, I set $50.00 aside along with my original $200.00 buy in to establish a stop loss at $250.00

If my table bankroll then continues to increase to $400.00 I add $50.00 to my stop loss and increase my base bet unit to $10.00

From there I continue adding $50.00 of each $100.00 increase to my stop loss until, when and if, my total table bankroll reaches $500.00 I increase my base bet unit to $15.00

Then I continue play adding as above to my stop loss and bet increases until such time as that stop loss is realized, or in a few cases, where I just decided to quit.

My winning sessions look like this:

Number of sessions * Dollars Won = Total Dollars for that number sessions

64 At less than $100.00 = $600.00
36 x $100.00 = $3,600.00
18 x $125.00 = $2,250.00
12 x $150.00 = $1,800.00
20 x $200.00 = $4,000.00
19 x $300.00 = $5,700.00
9 x $400.00 = $3,600.00
7 x $500.00 = $3,500.00
1 x $600.00 = $600.00
1 x $700.00 = $700.00
1 x $2,800.00 = $2,800.00
1 x $1,100.00 = $1,100.00
1 x $1,200.00 = $1,200.00

Total wins = $31,450.00 minus $24,600.00 Losses = $6,850.00 in pocket. (There is where the math that matters is located in my opinion. All else may lie or get screwed up and out of whack, but when one substracts wins from losses or visa versa, counts the money in his pocket, that answer is simple even for a math simpleton such as I. )

Thanks for your response-----documentation is quite impressive indeed!

BillyC1

 

[Sonny]

There is where the math that matters is located in my opinion. All else may lie or get screwed up and out of whack, but when one substracts wins from losses or visa versa, counts the money in his pocket, that answer is simple even for a math simpleton such as I.

Unfortunately that is exactly the kind of analysis that "may lie or get screwed up and out of whack." Read the sticky.

-Sonny-

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

If your records are completely accurate, then it's pretty impressive that you've sustained a profit over 100,000 hands. During that time, you almost certainly experienced multiple dramatic negative swings, so this setback while counting should be a breeze! Hope it turns around for you.

 

[leatherguyray]

Screwed up or out of whack analysis

Unfortunately that is exactly the kind of analysis that "may lie or get screwed up and out of whack." Read the sticky.

-Sonny-

Thanks, Sonny, and I have read the sticky. I understand it well and I am not attempting to promote system play. I am a pretty new counter, but a counter non the less...not a system player. My record was presented in reply to a question, just that and nothing more. Counters do it. System players do it. Ploppies do it. What's that? Count the money invested vs the money they now have and determine a win or loss. Can't screw that up. That "win" may not be there "in the long run" but it is absolutely there when the money is counted. That's all I'm saying and I would fail to see how that smiple fact could be argued. Thanks so much for your reply.

 

[leatherguyray]

Dramatic negative swings

If your records are completely accurate, then it's pretty impressive that you've sustained a profit over 100,000 hands. During that time, you almost certainly experienced multiple dramatic negative swings, so this setback while counting should be a breeze! Hope it turns around for you.

You bet! Been there and done that for sure. The negative swing right now as I count does not even trouble me except for the fact that it is so terribly, terribly negative and it went from being a basic winner to a constant loser when I began exercising counting. As I said before, my only point there is that I play the same tables, same everything except betting with the count and go from sometimes positive to always negative just immediately. That puzzles me, but I expect that the black hand of negaitve flux was just ready to strike and I'll muddle my way through it. If counting (and doing it well and properly) really works then I'll be ok. I have been assurred it does and I am content with that knowledge. Again, thank you so much for your well-put and well-received information and advice. I began re-reading KO today just to gleen what I can. I was sold on Red 7 earlier so only breezed through KO. Just finished Fred Renzy's Blue Book. A lot of very good info there. Good book. Thanks again.