Question re: a BJ "Promo(tion)"

[FLASH1296]

6 decks S17, DAS, LS, NRSA, SUITED BJ provide a match play equal to the original cash bet.

The rule is worth +.57%, making this otherwise good -0.33% e.v. game a +0.24% edge off the top.

The question is what is the minimum penetration you would accept in order to aggressively play this game for serious money ?

• 75% ?
  
• 70% ?
  
• 65% ?
  
• 60% ?
  
• 55% ?

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

If you have an edge off the top, penetration is not nearly as important a factor. In fact, spreading on this game would involve the added risk of being backed off for counting, which would prevent you from continuing to play the promo. Obviously, the promo alone is not very valuable, so counting is probably recommended over flat-betting, but the game would still be reasonably playable even with pretty lousy (say, 67%) penetration. I would probably play it with 55% pen, depending on heat factors, game speed, and other peripheral conditions.

The other concern would be getting a MP on your smaller bets, which would be an argument for flat-betting, but since your naturals should have a strong correlation with your larger bets, this is probably mitigated somewhat. It's a tough spot, as flat-betting big with such a flimsy edge is nearly suicide, while straight counting is probably not optimal, either.

 

[shadroch]

What does BJ pay?

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

I would assume 3:2 on all naturals, plus a MP for the wager amount on suited naturals; anything less would be a pretty horrendous "promotion!"

 

[shadroch]

I would assume 3:2 on all naturals, plus a MP for the wager amount on suited naturals; anything less would be a pretty horrendous "promotion!"

I rarely see suited BJ promos that pay 3-2 on non-suited. Thats why I ask.
An example woul;d be Saharas two fer Tuesdays where suited Bj paid 2-1, but all other paid even money.

 

[tthree]

I rarely see suited BJ promos that pay 3-2 on non-suited. Thats why I ask.
An example woul;d be Saharas two fer Tuesdays where suited Bj paid 2-1, but all other paid even money.

That is negative EV not a promotion. We will give you double bonus on 1/4 BJ but take the bonus away on the other 3/4. Are there people dumb enough to play their game or even at their casino after they try to rip people off like that. Reminds me of government assistance. Act like they are helping while they rip you off and hope you are to stupid to know the difference.

 

[Friendo]

Reminds me of government assistance.

I had no idea that this particular thread could be made an occasion for political commentary.

Congratulations on proving me wrong.

 

[FLASH1296]

I am confused.

W T F does Solyndra have to do with blackjack ?

"Solyndra was a manufacturer of cylindrical panels of CIGS thin-film solar cells based in Fremont, California. Although the company was once touted for its unusual technology, plummeting silicon prices led to the company being unable to compete with more conventional solar panels. On September 1, 2011, the company ceased all business activity, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, and laid off all employees. The company is also being sued by employees who were abruptly laid off."

 

[tthree]

I am confused.

W T F does Solyndra have to do with blackjack ?

"Solyndra was a manufacturer of cylindrical panels of CIGS thin-film solar cells based in Fremont, California. Although the company was once touted for its unusual technology, plummeting silicon prices led to the company being unable to compete with more conventional solar panels. On September 1, 2011, the company ceased all business activity, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, and laid off all employees. The company is also being sued by employees who were abruptly laid off."

Sorry just tried a one liner but got jumped on by some mean spirited people. Please don't turn this into a political thread. That was certainly not my intent at all.

 

[tthree]

6 decks S17, DAS, LS, NRSA, SUITED BJ provide a match play equal to the original cash bet.

The rule is worth +.57%, making this otherwise good -0.33% e.v. game a +0.24% edge off the top.

The question is what is the minimum penetration you would accept in order to aggressively play this game for serious money ?

• 75% ?
  
• 70% ?
  
• 65% ?
  
• 60% ?
  
• 55% ?

I am not sure penetration is that important when it comes to the promo. Maybe if you define aggressive play for serious money. How many suited blackjacks do you expect to get playing 2 hands at a crowded table for 8 hours? How much does your chance of getting one change with the TC?

 

[21forme]

A suited BJ occurs once every 84 hands. At a full table, that's once every 11 rounds, though you may not be the one to get it.

 

[Brock Windsor]

Your advantageous rule is adding about the equivalent of a TC of +1. If you have TC frequency charts you could probably estimate the value at each pen level to figure out a which point the games are equivalent. I don't have freq charts but adding a .57 seems about eqivalent to early surrender. Using Snyder profit index for early surrender, it looks like the rule makes a 50% pen game about equal to a 75% pen game. So to answer the question, I'll say I would play a game with 25% less pen to have that advantageous rule.

Depending on your BR considerations, the fact that you can always leave any negative count and have +EV at another table may make the game even better if you can greatly increase hands per hour. A CSM will always have an advantage and sometimes you can get a lot of hands out of those machines.

 

[Cardcounter]

Cap?

I bet that the match plays have a cap on the value at say $5-$25 per hand. But picking up match plays are always nice.

 

[tthree]

I bet that the match plays have a cap on the value at say $5-$25 per hand. But picking up match plays are always nice.

You have to bet at least $10. The match plays come in $10, $25 and $100 increments (maybe larger but nobody at my table was betting bigger than this). As long as your bet was divisible by $5 and not $15 you got a mix of matchplays that add up to your bet. If you bet $15 you got a $10 matchplay.

 

[mikeyd]

6 decks S17, DAS, LS, NRSA, SUITED BJ provide a match play equal to the original cash bet.

The rule is worth +.57%, making this otherwise good -0.33% e.v. game a +0.24% edge off the top.

The question is what is the minimum penetration you would accept in order to aggressively play this game for serious money ?

• 75% ?
  
• 70% ?
  
• 65% ?
  
• 60% ?
  
• 55% ?

How should the match play coupon be used? Say you get a match play worth 5 units and you hold it until your betting ramp calls for a 10 unit bet.
Should you bet 5 units cash and the match play, thus reducing risk?
Or should you bet 10 units cash plus the match play?

 

[bigplayer]

6 decks S17, DAS, LS, NRSA, SUITED BJ provide a match play equal to the original cash bet.

The rule is worth +.57%, making this otherwise good -0.33% e.v. game a +0.24% edge off the top.

The question is what is the minimum penetration you would accept in order to aggressively play this game for serious money ?

• 75% ?
  
• 70% ?
  
• 65% ?
  
• 60% ?
  
• 55% ?

Even with 55% penetration you can get big advantages at this game.

 

[FLASH1296]

You bet it "off the top" -- as that serves as a sort of "cover play"

If you are going to wait until your Max Bet is due you will only be gaining

about 2.0% in e.v. on the Match Play Coupon. That is 50 ₵ on a $25 coupon.

$100 is the Max size of the Match Play Coupons.

Furthermore you can only wager one at a time.

NOTE: If you surrender a hand where you are using a Match Play Coupon

you will lose 50% of your chips but the coupon is returned to you.

This makes the M. P. worth more than you may have thought.

Under these circumstances, when you have made a bet with a

M.P.C. you are getting to bypass the hand paying just 1/4 of

your aggregate wager, instead of 1/2. Therefore you do not use a

25% win frequency as your benchmark for surrendering, you use 37.5%

That understood, weak hands like 14's, 15's and 16's vs. dealer 7, or above

ought to be surrendered.

IF I was playing this Promo' I would check the hand matchup equity table to

delineate the correct surrender parameters.

 

[Bondy3]

thats a pretty sweet promotion, I would play it with 50% pen just because you have an advantage right off the back, if you flat bet $100 thats like $1 every 3 hands played, if you play 100 hands per hour thats like $33/hr and thats more than I make at my real job

 

[moo321]

Use a small spread. 25-100 or something. You'll get most of the gain from counting, while not drawing much heat.

Or, you can flat bet and wong out. That would bump you up to a higher advantage.

 

[mikeyd]

You bet it "off the top" -- as that serves as a sort of "cover play"

If you are going to wait until your Max Bet is due you will only be gaining

about 2.0% in e.v. on the Match Play Coupon. That is 50 ₵ on a $25 coupon.

$100 is the Max size of the Match Play Coupons.

Furthermore you can only wager one at a time.

NOTE: If you surrender a hand where you are using a Match Play Coupon

you will lose 50% of your chips but the coupon is returned to you.

This makes the M. P. worth more than you may have thought.

Under these circumstances, when you have made a bet with a

M.P.C. you are getting to bypass the hand paying just 1/4 of

your aggregate wager, instead of 1/2. Therefore you do not use a

25% win frequency as your benchmark for surrendering, you use 37.5%

That understood, weak hands like 14's, 15's and 16's vs. dealer 7, or above

ought to be surrendered.

IF I was playing this Promo' I would check the hand matchup equity table to

delineate the correct surrender parameters.

Thanks for the advice Flash.
Since the Match Play coupon is basically worth half of its face value,
shouldn't the win frequency you use for surrender be 33.3%?
If so, it appears you should surrender 12 thru 17 vs 9, 10 or A,
surrender 14 thru 17 v 8,
surrender 15-16 v 7, and
surrender 6 v 10.