re-thinking the advantageous of fight night in Vegas

[kewljason]

Conventional wisdom says that big events, like New Years Eve, superbowl weekend and just about any holiday weekend, that draw bigger than normal crowds, betting larger amounts of money is prime time for AP's to ply their trade. There are many more people betting big. Crowds in general means there is more for surveillance to watch. Fight night in Vegas has long been considered the jackpot. Basically Christmas for AP's. Pop on a PAC-man hat and it's easy to blend in and go unnoticed. I find myself re-thinking that conventional wisdom.

I am a mid-level green to black player. I usually keep my max wager below the $500 threshold to avoid heat, so these big event nights are a chance for me to bump my max bet up above the $500 threshold to as much as double my normal top wager. The many people betting at this level and above provide cover and my expected winrate per 100 hands played is pretty much double my norm. Seems like a good deal. Good cover and a higher winrate.

The problem is hands played. Crowded conditions make the $25 tables almost unplayable and even the $50 tables are quite crowded. Similar to the crowded conditions back east on a busy Saturday night, which I moved away from. :sad: This makes my style of table-hopping very difficult and finding a heads up game or game with one other player almost impossible. Instead I end up playing with 2, 3, sometimes more other players. Hands per hour shrink and by the end of the night I have ended up playing half the hands at double the winrate for about the same expectation for the night. And I have had to wager more money and carry a bigger bankroll to reach that same expectation. And these big fight nights and other big event nights bring out the criminal element as well as part of the big crowds, so I have increased my risk. Not risk of ruin, risk of danger. So what is the great advantage of these nights?

If this sounds like the rantings of a guy who just lost big on fight night, no that's not the case. I did ok, actually. I just feel like I had to bet bigger, carry more money, put myself in greater danger and work harder to do so, and am rethinking seeking out these 'opportunities'. Any thoughts?

 

[paddywhack]

Any thoughts?

IMO, having bigger fish at the table is usually a good thing unless they're garnering attention and you get caught up in the scrutiny.

I guess I'd rather be able to get the rounds in at a lesser spread than to get fewer rounds at a larger spread. Not usually possible where I play the most so I'm used to this battle but seems to me the crowded times would be when Jason takes a nap, does some scouting, or has a beer (just watch out for those PC's :laugh.

 

[21forme]

If you're upping your stakes for the event nights, how about playing in the HL rooms? Besides less of a crowd, better rules in general.

 

[forwhat77]

Kewl,
Not sure were you were playing, but the early hours of the morning before the fight were great. Slightly more people, betting at larger levels, but not the crowd that was observed during the hours closer to the fight, before and after.

So, maybe next time think about the day before the fight to exploit this situation?

 

[shadroch]

My thinking is that the casinos bring in their best staff for these events, so that the Monday/Tuesday after a big fight are the times to play. Casinos "A Team" is likely off or just exhauted from the busy weekend, but there are still some residue high rollers around.
In my case its all hypothetical as my biggest bet wouldn't make most pitbosses blink.

 

[kewljason]

If you're upping your stakes for the event nights, how about playing in the HL rooms? Besides less of a crowd, better rules in general.

I just don't care for HL rooms. I feel like I am on a stage and just don't feel comfortable. The ratio of pit to player is higher and they don't accept playing anonymously as well. Since they have less to do, they are really on you about getting a card, to the point that when you refuse a second or third time, it is even more suspicious. I also generally like the $25 tables. that is my level. Only on busy nights like this do I spread enough to make $50 tables an option.

I take it you don't feel that you draw more attention in the HL room, 21?

 

[21forme]

I just don't care for HL rooms. I feel like I am on a stage and just don't feel comfortable. The ratio of pit to player is higher and they don't accept playing anonymously as well. Since they have less to do, they are really on you about getting a card, to the point that when you refuse a second or third time, it is even more suspicious. I also generally like the $25 tables. that is my level. Only on busy nights like this do I spread enough to make $50 tables an option.

I take it you don't feel that you draw more attention in the HL room, 21?

Perhaps, but with your play style it shouldn't be an issue. In AC, I was always comfortable in the HL room at the very north end of the BW. They knew me and seemed comfortable with me. OTOH, I occasionally play the HL room at B's (the one with same name as a shoe brand) and did more your style because there were fewer tables and more staff - gone after a shoe which included max bets and woning out in neg counts. The one time I played the HL room at the far south end, I made a bet with an AP friend of mine how long it would take me to get half-shoed - second shoe. I got up and left and heard the dealer say to the PB, "you were right." :laugh:

 

[zengrifter]

The problem is hands played. Crowded conditions make the $25 tables almost unplayable and even the $50 tables are quite crowded. Similar to the crowded conditions back east on a busy Saturday night, which I moved away from. :sad: This makes my style of table-hopping very difficult and finding a heads up game or game with one other player almost impossible. Instead I end up playing with 2, 3, sometimes more other players. Hands per hour shrink and by the end of the night I have ended up playing half the hands at double the winrate for about the same expectation for the night. And I have had to wager more money and carry a bigger bankroll to reach that same expectation. And these big fight nights and other big event nights bring out the criminal element as well as part of the big crowds, so I have increased my risk. Not risk of ruin, risk of danger. So what is the great advantage of these nights?

None to little, unless you can adjust your style to a more aggressive wong-in/out. You may find more scavenger opps to compensate for the game congestion if you are sociable and alert for them. Its also a good time to exploit other counters who are spotted in play, using them as unintending spotters with big bet 'signals.' zg

 

[SleightOfHand]

I agree. Unless you are able to spread significantly higher, playing heads up would usually yield a higher WR. Playing 60 hands/hr vs 200 hands/hr means you need to have a greater than 3x WR/hand to make up for the loss in speed. Also, because you are playing faster, you wont be exposed to the PCs as much (time wise), making you a bit less memorable.

 

[shark]

Some interesting points here. I try to avoid busy times and weekends as well do to the slow conditions as you mentioned Jason. I think playing on busy nights with a larger spread is something to mix in there, but I agree with your conclusion that it is not an APs Christmas as once thought. But, if you are a known player who would be ID'd at a particular casino on an average day, the commotion/chaos/crowds could be just what you need to fly under the radar for a hard shift.

 

[Most Interesting Man]

I've played a bunch of conditions (busy, dead, great rules, crap rules) and I don't have an opinion on what's better. They're just different. Each set of conditions requires a different type of play to make the most of it. +1 on zg's reply.