Conventional wisdom says that big events, like New Years Eve, superbowl weekend and just about any holiday weekend, that draw bigger than normal crowds, betting larger amounts of money is prime time for AP's to ply their trade. There are many more people betting big. Crowds in general means there is more for surveillance to watch. Fight night in Vegas has long been considered the jackpot. Basically Christmas for AP's. Pop on a PAC-man hat and it's easy to blend in and go unnoticed. I find myself re-thinking that conventional wisdom.
I am a mid-level green to black player. I usually keep my max wager below the $500 threshold to avoid heat, so these big event nights are a chance for me to bump my max bet up above the $500 threshold to as much as double my normal top wager. The many people betting at this level and above provide cover and my expected winrate per 100 hands played is pretty much double my norm. Seems like a good deal. Good cover and a higher winrate.
The problem is hands played. Crowded conditions make the $25 tables almost unplayable and even the $50 tables are quite crowded. Similar to the crowded conditions back east on a busy Saturday night, which I moved away from. :sad: This makes my style of table-hopping very difficult and finding a heads up game or game with one other player almost impossible. Instead I end up playing with 2, 3, sometimes more other players. Hands per hour shrink and by the end of the night I have ended up playing half the hands at double the winrate for about the same expectation for the night. And I have had to wager more money and carry a bigger bankroll to reach that same expectation. And these big fight nights and other big event nights bring out the criminal element as well as part of the big crowds, so I have increased my risk. Not risk of ruin, risk of danger.
So what is the great advantage of these nights?
If this sounds like the rantings of a guy who just lost big on fight night, no that's not the case. I did ok, actually. I just feel like I had to bet bigger, carry more money, put myself in greater danger and work harder to do so, and am rethinking seeking out these 'opportunities'. Any thoughts?
I am a mid-level green to black player. I usually keep my max wager below the $500 threshold to avoid heat, so these big event nights are a chance for me to bump my max bet up above the $500 threshold to as much as double my normal top wager. The many people betting at this level and above provide cover and my expected winrate per 100 hands played is pretty much double my norm. Seems like a good deal. Good cover and a higher winrate.
The problem is hands played. Crowded conditions make the $25 tables almost unplayable and even the $50 tables are quite crowded. Similar to the crowded conditions back east on a busy Saturday night, which I moved away from. :sad: This makes my style of table-hopping very difficult and finding a heads up game or game with one other player almost impossible. Instead I end up playing with 2, 3, sometimes more other players. Hands per hour shrink and by the end of the night I have ended up playing half the hands at double the winrate for about the same expectation for the night. And I have had to wager more money and carry a bigger bankroll to reach that same expectation. And these big fight nights and other big event nights bring out the criminal element as well as part of the big crowds, so I have increased my risk. Not risk of ruin, risk of danger.
So what is the great advantage of these nights? If this sounds like the rantings of a guy who just lost big on fight night, no that's not the case. I did ok, actually. I just feel like I had to bet bigger, carry more money, put myself in greater danger and work harder to do so, and am rethinking seeking out these 'opportunities'. Any thoughts?
