review, analyze and meaningless thoughts

kewljason

Well-Known Member
Today is the first full day of autumn. Since I relocated to Vegas last December, I have split time between Philly and Vegas and now am enjoying my final days in Philly before becoming a permanate Vegas resident. Beautiful fall days, I might add. We have nice fall days in Vegas with temps in the mid 60's and low 70's as well, but we call that winter. :laugh:

On this day I find myself reviewing and analyzing my year to date. Although the sampling is far to small to have any significant importance, I still thought I would share my thoughts. :rolleyes:

Year To date: +1935 units. With 3 quarters of the year completed I am on pace to finish at +2580, slightly less than last year's total of +2829. In this business, you are never really on pace for anything. I could just as easily finish in the red as push forward towards 4000 units. But still, I seem to be in the neighborhood of where I think I should be, especially having played fewer hands this year.

Now the ride itself has not been smooth, :( and it is these times that I find myself doing these useless analyzations. Here is a little breakdown:

Jan 1 to Feb 28, +2035 units. What a fantastic 8 weeks and great way to start the year.

March 1 to date, -100 units. :( That's 30 weeks, -100 units! :eek: yuk!
Included in this 30 week period, is a 980 unit loss from my high point of 2915 in early July. Thats nearly 1000 units in 10 weeks. :eek: Prior to this, my biggest down swing in 7 years had been 320 units last summer. This really puts into perpective the need for a substantial bankroll to ride out such fluctuation. I have seen some sources that suggest 1000 units. Obviously that wouldn't have been ample in this case. It also reinforces the lesson, that someone playing this game as their only source of income, better have substantial money to live on without drawing from the bankroll during times like these. (I am not suggesting that anyone should consider this a career move, just stating a fact that if you do, you had better be prepared financially)

A further interesting breakdown is Vegas play, +2860 units in an estimated 39,000 hands vs East coast play -925 units in just over 18,000 hands. East Coast play consists of Atlantic City, Delaware, Conneticut, and 2 stores in Pennsylvania (phila area). I will probably try the new Sugarhouse Casino in Philadelphia that opened today in the next week as well. Again, I am not drawing any conclusions from this breakdown as the sample size is too small for any real significants. I think we all know that most East Coast games (especially AC) are pretty crappy, although I have had some mild success with them for a few years. But still, results like this makes it easier to head to Vegas permanately. :)
 

psyduck

Well-Known Member
Jason,

Thanks for sharing your record. Wish you another good run like the first two months!
 

shadroch

Well-Known Member
If you are -100 units from March 1st to now, why would you think you should end the year up almost 1,000 units from where you currently stand
aren't you concerned that you are simply regressing to the norm after having one exceptional winning streak?
 

blackjack avenger

Well-Known Member
Regression Oppression

shadroch said:
aren't you concerned that you are simply regressing to the norm after having one exceptional winning streak?
Don't think there is regression to the norm in blackjack as you are stating it. His expectation on the next positive hand is to win.

:joker::whip:
 

kewljason

Well-Known Member
shadroch said:
If you are -100 units from March 1st to now, why would you think you should end the year up almost 1,000 units from where you currently stand
aren't you concerned that you are simply regressing to the norm after having one exceptional winning streak?
I didn't say I should end up almost 1000 units from where I currently stood. I said "on pace". If a baseball player hits 22 home runs in the first 2/3's of the season then he is "on pace' to hit 33 for the year. It is just a statistical projection bases purely on the numbers so far. In the real world it doesn't quite work that way. My next line said something to the fact that I could just as easily continue to drop backwards and end the year in the red as move forward.
 

Sharky

Well-Known Member
kewljason said:
...Year To date: +1935 units. With 3 quarters of the year completed I am on pace to finish at +2580...
shadroch said:
If you are -100 units from March 1st to now, why would you think you should end the year up almost 1,000 units from where you currently stand?
645 is almost 1,000? i wish i could throw 355 units around like that
 

blackjack avenger

Well-Known Member
A Sim Projection?

kewljason said:
I didn't say I should end up almost 1000 units from where I currently stood. I said "on pace". If a baseball player hits 22 home runs in the first 2/3's of the season then he is "on pace' to hit 33 for the year. It is just a statistical projection bases purely on the numbers so far. In the real world it doesn't quite work that way. My next line said something to the fact that I could just as easily continue to drop backwards and end the year in the red as move forward.
Your numbers so far
aren't they to few to have any real meaning looking forward?

A better projection of your ev should be a sim of the games you will play and how many hours you will play?

:joker::whip:
 

shadroch

Well-Known Member
blackjack avenger said:
Don't think there is regression to the norm in blackjack as you are stating it. His expectation on the next positive hand is to win.

:joker::whip:

Yes, but his results so far are skewed by his first few months being well above the expected results. If yor expected results are X, but your early results are X+Y, won't your longterm results still be X meaning at some point you will experiance a run of X-Y
 

blackjack avenger

Well-Known Member
No Variance in Variance?

shadroch said:
Yes, but his results so far are skewed by his first few months being well above the expected results. If yor expected results are X, but your early results are X+Y, won't your longterm results still be X meaning at some point you will experiance a run of X-Y
the ev and variance of:
an hour
week
month
yr
of play is not affected by previous results.

When you sim and get your variance, it does not ask you are you up or down at this time.

The cards have no memory.

:joker::whip:
 

shadroch

Well-Known Member
blackjack avenger said:
the ev and variance of:
an hour
week
month
yr
of play is not affected by previous results.

When you sim and get your variance, it does not ask you are you up or down at this time.

The cards have no memory.

:joker::whip:

You're dancing around the question.
 

sabre

Well-Known Member
shadroch said:
Yes, but his results so far are skewed by his first few months being well above the expected results. If yor expected results are X, but your early results are X+Y, won't your longterm results still be X meaning at some point you will experiance a run of X-Y
No.
 

blackjack avenger

Well-Known Member
Nothing to ?

shadroch said:
You're dancing around the question.
You did not ask a ?
and
I addressed your point
I will try again
Whenever you play you have an expectation and variance for X number of hands you intend to play. Whatever happened in previous sessions has no effect on future play.

Every future hand you play has an expectation and variance, the past is history.

:joker::whip:
 

Machinist

Well-Known Member
Thanks KJ

Geeze guys quite trying to analyze everything:laugh: This post is about random thoughts and where he is at. At this point or any other point down the road anything can happen.!!!!!
That is a heck of a dry spell KJ.....
One thing has kept popping into my head over the last few months .... That is that i wish that the BJ players of the world would actually play about a months worth of a good GameKing Video Black Jack....say about 16 hrs a day or so and actually be able to see what variance can do to a bankroll. Thousands and thousands of hands a day..
Even with a 2% edge your variance is there at vbj. Its so fast compared to playing a table game...
Just a random thought.....again very Kool to share KJ....

Machinist
 

blackjack avenger

Well-Known Member
Tiny Variance Lost Down the Long Run?

Machinist said:
Geeze guys quite trying to analyze everything:laugh:
i wish that the BJ players of the world would actually play about a months worth of a good GameKing Video Black Jack....say about 16 hrs a day or so and actually be able to see what variance can do to a bankroll. Thousands and thousands of hands a day..
Even with a 2% edge your variance is there at vbj. Its so fast compared to playing a table game...
Just a random thought.....again very Kool to share KJ....

Machinist
He did ask us to analyze?

hmmmmm
Want to know variance at BJ?
Drop a few 2 hand multi purple's with action.
Table bj shows painful variance because we occasionally have very large bets and if we lose we get to wait a long time for those opportunities to repeat. If you have a large bank, the $ swings are very large.

Thousands of hands of bj play at a much lower denomination of machine bj will not show that kind of variance, you will get to the long run.

I wish I could play thousands of hands in a short period of time at table bj, the variance would be overwhelmed by expectation. One of the advantages of table team play.

:joker::whip:
 

Machinist

Well-Known Member
i understand

But ..I'm talking about a unit...i dont care the color of the chip. Yes group play really helps..but.......... what i'm getting at is you can hit a run of cards ...bad variance that will make your head spin. Especially when you start pushing the "Let IT Ride Button". max bet is ten quarters to start ......then let it ride 6 times and you have 80 bucks riding on a hand or 320 units. The variance is huge..even with a 2% edge off the top everytime...
I guess my point is you can play for 6 or 7 years of live bj and all of a sudden you cant buy a hand..... 6 or 7 years of live is probably only a few days of vbj.
Sims are one thing.......actual play is another....
Also i do know of a few guys with golden horse shoes you know where... They never lose at nuttin.....:laugh:

Take care all
 

blackjack avenger

Well-Known Member
I Also Agree With You

The speed of play of bj machines and considering often the machine itself is a negative play means the amount of hands or units one could be down in a unit of time can be staggering compared to table bj because of the incredible speed of play.

Am I actually being agreeable? LOL

:joker::whip:
 

Tarzan

Banned
Meaningless is a meaningless does

A famous quote by Forrest Gump. Anyway, this thread is precisely why a professional player shouldn't be bothering with posting his various "stats". First of all, every casino weinie on the planet is combing over a public forum such as this for intelligence gathering purposes and next of all, the local "armchair Generals" offer their various critique that tells you nothing you didn't already know. You guys assume Jason is lost without your valuable insight? I doubt that is the case for some reason.

It's a different story for an amateur or recreational player, where specific stats have little of the way in incriminating impact and provide data to others that can help them with their game, whereas in Jason's case such information can have no positive result of any kind, only possibilites of negative outcomes by revealing information that should remain confidential.
 

Machinist

Well-Known Member
blackjack avenger said:
The speed of play of bj machines and considering often the machine itself is a negative play means the amount of hands or units one could be down in a unit of time can be staggering compared to table bj because of the incredible speed of play.

Am I actually being agreeable? LOL

:joker::whip:
Yes BJ avenger.....The speed of hands played is the point.....And yes most machines now days are a minus EV ...........but not all...
Staggering is a good word for it......Shock and amazement when it happens....My point is you dont have to wait a year or 6 or 7 years to "feel" that variance. You get to condense a life time of table play into just a few weeks of video play... Hell i bet some guys in a life time will never get to feel that big sucking sound as your units deteriorate to hell!!! :whip:

Machinist
 

blackjack avenger

Well-Known Member
A Meaningless World

Tarzan said:
A famous quote by Forrest Gump. Anyway, this thread is precisely why a professional player shouldn't be bothering with posting his various "stats". First of all, every casino weinie on the planet is combing over a public forum such as this for intelligence gathering purposes and next of all, the local "armchair Generals" offer their various critique that tells you nothing you didn't already know. You guys assume Jason is lost without your valuable insight? I doubt that is the case for some reason.

It's a different story for an amateur or recreational player, where specific stats have little of the way in incriminating impact and provide data to others that can help them with their game, whereas in Jason's case such information can have no positive result of any kind, only possibilites of negative outcomes by revealing information that should remain confidential.
If There was no discussion of BJ; no dissemination of ideas, then possibly everyone on this site would know little to nothing of BJ. If Thorpe, Wong, Sch., Snyder, Jacobsen, Qfit, Kelly etc. held their knowledge close to the vest we may know nothing or be years or decades behind in our knowledge.

On an open board we are not just talking to the poster, but to others also.

For the more advanced of us the mulitple questions of bet ramps, BS etc. may get a bit old, but we were probably all their once.

I at times also wish certain issues were not talked about openly, but I am also glad some issues are out their so I could learn from them.

If one thinks they have nothing to learn from someone, then they indeed will learn nothing.

However, did kewlJ say things I would not have said, darn tootin! So we do have points of agreement.

:joker::whip:
 
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