Risk of Ruin Question

[anglinw]

My question is this:

Bankroll: $10,000
Table time: 15 hours (one weekend)
Risk tolerance: Willing to accept 25% chance of total loss or ROR
Gaming Conditions: DD, DAS, H17, BJ 3/2, no surrender, heat is not an issue so max bet spread 1-16 or high as possible, assuming perfect BS, standard hi/lo count with ace count on the side.

Under these conditions, what is the exact mathmatical/hypothetical maximum bet for this senario? If additional info is needed, please let ask.

 

[E-town-guy]

Why do you waste your time with an ace side count?

 

[anglinw]

I count Aces to have more chips on the betting box when the naturals come out. It's also an old habit for me, like using the hi/low counting system when better ones are out there. I am use to it, and I have consistantly won more often than I have lost using it. Is the additional Ace count really that insignificant?

Regardless, I know that conventional wisdom generally reccommends that the maximum bet never exceed 1% of bankroll, and spreads should be limited to 6 or 8, which means a $12.5 unit bet, spread up to as high as $100 max, or 1% of $10,000. Remember, under this equation I am willing to bust 1 out of 4 times (25% ROR), or stated another way, I am looking for a maximum bet potential for a 75% win rate.

Is 'conventional wisdom' in fact, the only answer? With all those math wizards and simulators out there, does anyone know a more precise answer?

 

[zengrifter]

Is the additional Ace count really that insignificant?

Yes, it is insignificant with HiLo. Ace-betting sidecounts are only meaningful when the Ace is not reckoned in the primary count.

Regardless, I know that conventional wisdom generally reccommends that the maximum bet never exceed 1% of bankroll, and spreads should be limited to 6 or 8, which means a $12.5 unit bet, spread up to as high as $100 max, or 1% of $10,000. Remember, under this equation I am willing to bust 1 out of 4 times (25% ROR), or stated another way, I am looking for a maximum bet potential for a 75% win rate.

Actually, I played in the same manner for about 10 years, only playing a few times per year with a 25+% RoR with my trip-stake of $10-20k.

Divide your 10k by 200 = $50u - max bets of 2x$200 - good luck! zg

Ps - 15hrs is not long enough to always get to your end result (ie, double or bust), and it would be advisable to have more capital available in the rare events when you bust out early (1st 5 hrs, etc)