ROR question

[Kasi]

thx and i dont have that book do you know of any other way were i can find that info

Well, here's my sheet from that book for Table 10.43.

It gives practical unit spreads based on optimal unit spreads of 1-8, 1-12, 1-16 for a play-all 4.5/6 S17 DAS using Hi-Lo and I18. And practical spreads of 1-2, 1-3 & 1-4 for back-counting. All with a $10K roll.

It assumes 100/rounds seen or played per hour.

You can adjust $rolls and $units as you see fit. Or unit spreads if you want.
It should put you in the ball park.

Just because you choose to change something to a 1-6 spread or 1-10 spread won't mean it's an optimal spread. Keep that in mind.

You want a lower ROR - either lower your $unit or increase your $roll. Either way, you need more units in your roll.

The key though is it's all based on a sim somebody ran. OK, QFIT's software ran. I think anyway.

It's fine for me to make my guesses with, since I have the same for all the tables in his book lol, but I'd probably never wager $1 based on any other than the "real thing" lol.

 

[(2deep)]

thx bro

is that what you use to find out your info

 

[qzj]

Actually what your describing is the old MIT system of betting. It will yield a low ROR, it is an ultra conservative approach. The problem with it is that the betting ramp is not really what you will find to be optimal. Most ramps will find you getting max bets out at a TC of 4 or 5. With this system you will not be getting out very many max or large bets out as you will find rare instances that you will find TC's reaching in the 7 and beyond range. The key to this system is having a large enough bankroll that your minimum bet is less then your unit size but can still be big enough to be able to meet at least the table minimum.

For example, what was common was to have a unit spread of 1-6, while still having a bet spread of 1-12. If you had a unit of $20 you would bet $10 in neutral and slightly negative counts ( important here to not play too many hands at a TC below -1) and once the TC reached 2 you would start laying out a 1 unit bet, raising it as you said, TC -1 to give you your betting unit. The problem as I said earlier is your max bet will only be coming out at a TC of 7 and that won't give you a lot of max bets. The good side to it is you will be betting proportionate to your advantage and at around .5 kelly with 500 units as a bankroll, at what would be much less than a 13.5% ROR. The down side is a loss of EV due to the less than optimal betting ramp. I have recommended this for 2 kinds of players. Those who have very large bankrolls that are not repenishable where the unit size is large enough it makes for decent earnings anyway, as well as low risk. My team has used this method in quite a few situations, except we are playing at even a more conservative Kelly coefficient then even .5. Or for those that are new to counting and haven't grasped how to lay out the optimal method of play. This system will gaurantee a positive expectation no sim required, just maybe not the one with the highest earning potential. I will confess I have pushed this way of betting on many that have played due to the fact I was assuming most weren't putting the time in to lay out there games. I have since been proven wrong by many here as I have seen some impressive displays of detail in game preparation. That is a good thing. For those who still wing it with just the knowledge of how to count, this method is for you.

I am a bit confused here. If my bankroll were $50,000, divide that by 500, you get $100/unit. So if I were playing at the 8 deck, S17, DAS, no surrender $25 minimum tables, and I were using a 1-12 spread, I'd be reaching my $300 max bet at TC = 4, which pretty much coincides with the other betting ramps. How is this ultra conservative then? And if I used a 1-20 spread, then I'd be reaching $500 max bet at TC = 6 which is not ridiculously conservative at all. I must be getting something wrong here...

 

[callipygian]

I must be getting something wrong here...

Yes. When using the strategy Bojack described, there's no limit on how high your spread can go. Theoretically, you shouldn't be betting at all below TC +1 or TC +2, because the advantage is less than 0.

For practical purposes, you're spreading something like 1-7 (since TC +8 is probably the highest you can expect to see in a show game in a lifetime of playing), but your "1" unit will be larger than the table minimum and your bet will be $0 at neutral and low counts.

This is actually related to an unanswered question from the first page:

I'm a little confused about how a bet ramp which doesn't continue scaling bets proportionally with the advantage would be "less optimal" than one that has max bets being hit sooner?

The misassumption (is that a word?) is that the units are equal; that is, for a proportional system you are betting 0,1,2,3,4,5 and for a non-proportional system you are betting 1,1,2,5,10,20. The strategy Bojack described reaches the max bet at approximately the same high bets, but the units at neutral counts are different. So in reality you'd have 0,1,2,3,4,5 vs. 0.25, 0.25, 0.5, 1.25, 2.5, 5 - non-proportional systems are underbetting the marginally positive counts and overbetting the negative counts when you normalize to the high bet.

It does so for a good reason - highly betting those marginally positive counts brings a lot of EV, but also a lot of variance. Hence, he only recommends the strategy for people with units larger than the table minimum so that that "0" bet can actually be a table minimum bet.

 

[zengrifter]

If i have a bank roll of $10,000 and i want a 5% ROR should i have a betting range of 1-12 units with a unit being $10 and my max bet being $100

You will be fine if you halve your bets IF/WHEN BR tanks 50% --AND-- you exit -counts. zg