ROR, Risk or Reward?

[blackjack avenger]

Different Strokes Can Still Feel Right

I'm no math person, but I think it goes like this:

I use 1% as a rule of thumb full kelly approximation of the ratio of max bet to bankroll. It can be accurately figured by dividing your advantage of 2% by the variance for the particular game rules your are playing. So, if you are playing 1/8 kelly, you only need 1/8 of 1%, but that means a huge bankroll for even a $25 minimum game. Using your figures and a $25 min game:

.00125 * 250,000 = $312.50 max bet which would allow you to spread 1 to 12.

or another way to look at it: $250,000 / 8 = $31,250 * 1% = $312.50 max bet

Is this right, blackjack avenger?

Not sure what you are doing
This is how I would do it:

Take your existing bank
consider that a kelly bank
divide the bank by whatever fraction of kelly you wish to bet
for 1/8 kelly divide your bank by 8
then set your bet ramp

For anyone already playing, I would not recommend suddenly cutting your bet size. Consistency of bets is important for achieving the long run. I would suggest you look critically at your ror or risk of losing half and consider not raising stakes until your bank is very conservative, 1/4 to 1/8 kelly.

 

[blackjack avenger]

I Don't Like a Smaller Sized Anything

thats what she said

One of the critiques of Kelly resizing is that if you lose and resize your bets down you have to win more bets to get back to even. I have referred to this as NO HELL:devil:

Subjectively 1/8th kelly is where you begin to; hopefully, not have such a large drawdown that you have to drastically cut bets and get sent to NO HELL:devil:

 

[kewljason]

This is a valuable thread and topic. It is a shame more members didn't participate. Especially those on the higher end. One size does not fit all. Depends on one's circumstances. Part-time vs full-time play (again referring to income not time) and replenishible vs non-replenishible bankroll are two of the bigger variables.

I would love to play 1/8 kelly. Eliminates much the worry and stress. Unfortunately I am not there yet. I play between 1/3 and 1/4 kelly at the moment, which is a far cry from where I was when I began play not that many years ago. Luckily I made it through that period and perhaps even more lucky was that I didn't fully understand the danger I was in at the time. I would resize downward upon significant loss, which hasn't happened yet. While I do withdraw funds from BR for living expenses, it is less than 40% of my EV, so hopefully my BR will continue to grow and maybe some day I will be at 1/8 kelly.

 

[blackjack avenger]

I Agree 100%

Absolutely the bane of AP play! But, until you build your br to such a level that you can play 1/8 kelly, you need to risk the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune.

At the beginning of one's career perhaps half kelly
as the bank grows get more conservative, standard investment strategy.
I like 1/8 kelly as conservative enough. Also, the sign of infiity being a sideways 8 is catchy.

I would imagine some pros at 1/4 kelly might have had some sleepless nights.

 

[aslan]

At the beginning of one's career perhaps half kelly
as the bank grows get more conservative, standard investment strategy.
I like 1/8 kelly as conservative enough. Also, the sign of infiity being a sideways 8 is catchy.

I would imagine some pros at 1/4 kelly might have had some sleepless nights.

Thank you for this thread. The topics covered here are indispensable to the beginner player, and can save many from, or at least make them more aware of the risk of, the disasters that can visit them even playing full or 1/2 kelly. Most of us are working our way up to a more comfortable position bankroll-wise from which to play, but it's good to know what to shoot for, and how long it may take you to get there. I know I have spent far too much of my bankroll along the way, and could have been a lot further on by now if I had had the proper goal.