Roulette AP?

[Chapel]

There was another post here that mentioned something along the lines of getting and advantage with a team of scientists and/or a computer device. Could someone explain how this would work?

 

[moo321]

Well, it's illegal to use a computer in most jurisdictions, so it'd be stupid. If you're gonna cheat, you might as well learn to muck or mark cards; huge edge, hard to catch.

BUT, it would probably center on finding biased wheels. Personally, I don't believe it, because the house edge is too high to find a wheel that biased. I might believe it in a few rare cases, but I doubt it. Big 6 wheel is more plausible...

 

[aslan]

Well, it's illegal to use a computer in most jurisdictions, so it'd be stupid. If you're gonna cheat, you might as well learn to muck or mark cards; huge edge, hard to catch.

BUT, it would probably center on finding biased wheels. Personally, I don't believe it, because the house edge is too high to find a wheel that biased. I might believe it in a few rare cases, but I doubt it. Big 6 wheel is more plausible...

Houses would have you believe that biased wheels are a thing of the past. They test their wheels continually, move them around, adjust them, blah, blah, blah. But every once in a while you read another story about a million plus score against a biased wheel.

 

[Chapel]

How would one go about finding a biased wheel? Just simple observation?

 

[aslan]

How would one go about finding a biased wheel? Just simple observation?

All the tales I've read say that "clockers" spend days recording every number. Sometimes nowadays they use laptops or computerized devices. Sometimes they find a spot from where they can see the number display, such as at a slot machine. Other times two clockers play the same wheel making small bets in opposite directions (red/black, odd, even) so that the net result is close to zero except for the 0 and 00. I don't know how sensitive casinos are to clockers and what countermeasures they employ when they suspect they are being clocked.

 

[Kasi]

There was another post here that mentioned something along the lines of getting and advantage with a team of scientists and/or a computer device. Could someone explain how this would work?

I know there was a team in England that wion a bucketful of money with a computer. Something like (I think) the player strobed the speed of the ball, it got radioed to a van outside, and the wheel section of most likely landing zone radioed back. Something like that - I'm not even sure a biased wheel was needed but maybe.

I don't even think they were found guilty because there was no law against it at the time.

Search the web - you might find the details.

 

[QFIT]

According to Laurance Scott, Roulette is NOT about biased wheels. It is about finding a dealer that is reasonably consistent. Then analyzing the arc of numbers that are likely to be hit after the ball slows to a specified speed. The speed can be determined by the sound of the ball in the groove. It's not easy. But there are two aspects of Roulette that are in your favor. First, you can be wrong 2 out of 3 times about which quarter of the wheel will be hit and still realize a huge advantage. Secondly, Roulette is the only casino game that allows you to bet after the game has started. That is, you can place bets after the dealer has thrown the ball and the game is in motion.

 

[Sonny]

Just do a search for Roulette and you will find some old posts about different methods (including computers). Here are a few of the results that come up:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=7769
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=4198
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=8921

-Sonny-

 

[aslan]

According to Laurance Scott, Roulette is NOT about biased wheels. It is about finding a dealer that is reasonably consistent. Then analyzing the arc of numbers that are likely to be hit after the ball slows to a specified speed. The speed can be determined by the sound of the ball in the groove. It's not easy. But there are two aspects of Roulette that are in your favor. First, you can be wrong 2 out of 3 times about which quarter of the wheel will be hit and still realize a huge advantage. Secondly, Roulette is the only casino game that allows you to bet after the game has started. That is, you can place bets after the dealer has thrown the ball and the game is in motion.

Wouldn't a consistent dealer advantage also imply that you know the exact point at which the ball slows to the "target speed," then quickly determining the key most logical target number and its surrounding neighbors? And aren't dealers trained to vary the speed at which they throw the ball as a countermeasure to this sort of ball prediction, in effect, changing their signatures? Determining the speed by the sound of the ball in the groove is an interesting proposition. Count on six months or more constant training to learn this technique on one particular model wheel in your basement, if in fact it is possible to begin with. Actually, this should not deter a real AP, since the payoff over a lifetime could more than justify the time expended. Do you have any insight as to the validity of Scott's claim?

 

[Sonny]

And aren't dealers trained to vary the speed at which they throw the ball as a countermeasure to this sort of ball prediction, in effect, changing their signatures?

The speed of the throw doesn’t matter that much. You know that the ball will always be traveling at the same speed when it falls off the track because the point at which gravity overtakes the centripetal force is always the same. Imagine spinning a bucket of water around your head (see below). It doesn’t matter how long you spin the bucket, the water will always fall out when you slow down to a certain speed (and not before). Therefore you will always know what speed the bucket is traveling when the water falls out. Similarly, throwing the roulette ball harder will only cause the ball to spin for longer, giving you more time to predict the outcome. The tricky part is predicting how many more spins the ball will take and what position the wheel will be in when it falls. I don’t know anything about Scott’s system but I’ve heard good things about it.

-Sonny-

 

[QFIT]

Scott's software allows you to analyze by speed of throw or not. Actually it takes into account all the variables you have and looks for a set of variables that looks for an exceptional edge and std dev. Scott tells me a consistent dealer improves results. Consistent dealers are common enough. It is a very boring job and once they get comfortable with a throw they keep it.

Disclaimer: I wrote Scott's software.

 

[aslan]

The speed of the throw doesn’t matter that much. You know that the ball will always be traveling at the same speed when it falls off the track because the point at which gravity overtakes the centripetal force is always the same. Imagine spinning a bucket of water around your head (see below). It doesn’t matter how long you spin the bucket, the water will always fall out when you slow down to a certain speed (and not before). Therefore you will always know what speed the bucket is traveling when the water falls out. Similarly, throwing the roulette ball harder will only cause the ball to spin for longer, giving you more time to predict the outcome. The tricky part is predicting how many more spins the ball will take and what position the wheel will be in when it falls. I don’t know anything about Scott’s system but I’ve heard good things about it.

-Sonny-

Thanks. What then is the cause of dealer signature?

 

[21forme]

It's similar with Big 6 wheels. Grosjean discusses it in his book. After reading it, I started watching some Big 6 wheels in AC, but did not find any dealers consistent enough to get an edge.

IIRC< there was an episode of Breaking Vegas about a European (Spanish, I believe) family that made mucho bucks finding and analyzing biased wheels.

 

[QFIT]

Thanks. What then is the cause of dealer signature?

Keep in mind that both the ball and rotor are in motion. But the ball is not in the rotor until it drops. So there is the relative speed between the ball and the rotor and the absolute speed of the ball. The sound of the ball indicates the absolute speed and therefore when the ball is about to drop.

 

[aslan]

Keep in mind that both the ball and rotor are in motion. But the ball is not in the rotor until it drops. So there is the relative speed between the ball and the rotor and the absolute speed of the ball. The sound of the ball indicates the absolute speed and therefore when the ball is about to drop.

So then speed is related to dealer signature, more correctly, the relative speed of the ball versus the rotor, and the relative position of the ball and any point on the wheel, say, 00, and how the relationship of the ball and "00" changes as the ball reaches the target speed, from which the drop off point might be predicted. I think I'm in the right neighborhood, but not sure I'm on the right street. Thanks.

 

[Chapel]

It might actually take someone who worked as a Roulette dealer to be comfortable enough with the sound of a Roulette ball to know about how long a ball will take to drop (and thus where in the wheel it will drop) in order to gain an advantage over the otherwise large house edge.

Something I did notice during a recent trip to AC was that the ball usually had a fairly similar 'bounce pattern' once it slowed enough no matter which number it hit first. This is probably because the wheel is fairly consistent. (To save face as a mathematician, I would like to point out that my girlfriend wanted to play Roulette, not me. :laugh: ) The problem I see is that the winning numbers are distributed around the wheel fairly randomly. Even if I had a decent idea which area of the wheel it was going to land (say which quarter section), that still wouldn't point to any clear cut bets.

 

[Sonny]

(To save face as a mathematician, I would like to point out that my girlfriend wanted to play Roulette, not me. :laugh: )

You have a girlfriend? Well, there goes your credibility as a mathematician. :laugh:

-Sonny-

 

[QFIT]

It might actually take someone who worked as a Roulette dealer to be comfortable enough with the sound of a Roulette ball to know about how long a ball will take to drop (and thus where in the wheel it will drop) in order to gain an advantage over the otherwise large house edge.

I would bet that most heavy Roulette players (including voodoo players) could tell you with their eyes closed when the ball is about to drop even without knowing that they had that ability. There is a dramatic difference in the sound of the ball against the rim a couple revolutions before centripetal force (linear momentum against a limiting curve) loses its ability to overcome gravity. Of course this is only one aspect of the problem.

 

[callipygian]

The problem I see is that the winning numbers are distributed around the wheel fairly randomly.

But predictably. There are some rules - alternating red/black, opposite numbers add up to 37, etc - that make memorizing the order of roulette numbers difficult, but possible.

This should not be a deterrent for anyone with a legitimate system. The system is the hard part, not the wheel.

Even if I had a decent idea which area of the wheel it was going to land (say which quarter section), that still wouldn't point to any clear cut bets.

Bet them all. If you could narrow down the possibilities to a 50% probability of landing on 10 consecutive numbers, bet all 10 and your edge is (10/20)*26-(10/20)*10 = +6.5 (!!!).

 

[Chapel]

But predictably. There are some rules - alternating red/black, opposite numbers add up to 37, etc - that make memorizing the order of roulette numbers difficult, but possible.

This should not be a deterrent for anyone with a legitimate system. The system is the hard part, not the wheel.

Bet them all. If you could narrow down the possibilities to a 50% probability of landing on 10 consecutive numbers, bet all 10 and your edge is (10/20)*26-(10/20)*10 = +6.5 (!!!).

I didn't know that bit about the opposite numbers add to 37. It is an interesting fact if it is true. I'm guessing this means 0 and 00 are opposite to each other.

For the second part, maybe I misunderstood you. If you knew that there was a 1/2 chance that the ball would land on 1 of 10 numbers, then each of those numbers has a 1/20 chance of coming up. A 1/20 chance of a payout of 35 is more like 75% player advantage (expected value is 1.75) unless there is a computation that I am not familiar with here.

Either way, the break even point is being able to reliably eliminate 3 numbers. Only problem is that the average person won't be able to practice from home and there still seems to be a lot of guess work in eliminating those 3 numbers.