Two experienced APs I met constantly complain about low-value cards clumping together, thus reducing or eliminating long term advantage.
Their argument is as follows:
The dealer pickup procedure causes low-value card clumping. The dealer first picks up the busted hands, then the losing hands, and then the winning hands followed by the dealer's hand. After the shuffle, these low-value card clumps are perserved. During high true counts, the low-value clumps cause the AP to lose more often on the double-downs and splits, and receive fewer blackjacks. In the middle of playing these low-value clumps, the AP should open 3 or more spots to disperse these low-value clumps.
My counter argument:
I agree that dealer pickup and shuffle procedure may cause low-value card clumping, but the AP will have an advantage in the long term. During high counts and low-value clumps, the AP will have short term -EV, but after those clumps the high percentage of ten-value cards and aces remaining in the shoe will more than compensate for the short term loses caused by the low-value card clumps. It is unnecessary for the AP to open 3 or more spots in an attempt to disperse these low-value clumps.
Any constructive insights and opinions?
Their argument is as follows:
The dealer pickup procedure causes low-value card clumping. The dealer first picks up the busted hands, then the losing hands, and then the winning hands followed by the dealer's hand. After the shuffle, these low-value card clumps are perserved. During high true counts, the low-value clumps cause the AP to lose more often on the double-downs and splits, and receive fewer blackjacks. In the middle of playing these low-value clumps, the AP should open 3 or more spots to disperse these low-value clumps.
My counter argument:
I agree that dealer pickup and shuffle procedure may cause low-value card clumping, but the AP will have an advantage in the long term. During high counts and low-value clumps, the AP will have short term -EV, but after those clumps the high percentage of ten-value cards and aces remaining in the shoe will more than compensate for the short term loses caused by the low-value card clumps. It is unnecessary for the AP to open 3 or more spots in an attempt to disperse these low-value clumps.
Any constructive insights and opinions?