Ruin this!

[Dopple]

I have played about the same game for the last 10 years and never been down more than 250 units. I would have to lose what I have won the last 6 months ( 500 units) plus another 500 units to consider hanging it up for a while. This is a replenishable bank. For all intents and purposes I am working with a 1,000 unit roll, correct?

I should have no problem betting 1% of my roll as my max bet or 10 units and I go 2% quite often. Full Kelly betting is your adv in percentage in relation to your bankroll though which could be 5% at times.

I am thinking I want to start seeing greater losses to prove I am betting optimally. Other members have urged me to lighten up and enjoy the game but want to step in the dark water just a little deeper.:devil:

I could start collecting more data, run sims, or visit the local witchdoctor?

 

[sagefr0g]

I have played about the same game for the last 10 years and never been down more than 250 units. I would have to lose what I have won the last 6 months ( 500 units) plus another 500 units to consider hanging it up for a while. This is a replenishable bank. For all intents and purposes I am working with a 1,000 unit roll, correct?

I should have no problem betting 1% of my roll as my max bet or 10 units and I go 2% quite often. Full Kelly betting is your adv in percentage in relation to your bankroll though which could be 5% at times.

I am thinking I want to start seeing greater losses to prove I am betting optimally. Other members have urged me to lighten up and enjoy the game but want to step in the dark water just a little deeper.:devil:

I could start collecting more data, run sims, or visit the local witchdoctor?

well, instead of getting into deep, , if you want to test the waters, maybe consider a 'one' time hail mary sort of thing, just to see what deep water is like.

disclaimer, this is not meant as advice, you could lose money, lol.

http://www.bj21.com/bj_reference/pages/9719.html

...

 

[Dopple]

Thanks Kasi

Thanks for the reply. I always appreciate your views and advice.

This is interesting and adds to my knowledge of the gaming. I think we have dealing with a whole different kind of perspective with replenishable bankrolls as much of the BJ literature is built around trip or vacation gaming with set time and bank denominators.

This Hail Mary approach can be shaded to suit an individuals gastro-intestinal tolerances. IMHO

Thanks for the time.

(Name wrong on title; disregard please Mr. Sagefrog)

 

[rollem411]

You better strap on the brass *****. IMO, I would not be able to handle the losses. Why fix something that's not broke! Good luck if you do attempt it.

 

[Dopple]

Just like anything in this game it can be done on any scale. I did a post on occasional big bets and this is the same thing as a Hail Mary approach on a smaller scale. Just increasing your betting ramp for short periods of time.

If it aint broke it can still be improved.

 

[Homeschool]

Hail Mary?

If you have a replenishable BR why would you consider playing with 500+500 (1000) if you could easily play with a reasonable ROR (in a reasonable amount of time assuming ability to add to BR) with BR of say $3000-$3500 (minimal ROR)?

 

[sagefr0g]

If you have a replenishable BR why would you consider playing with 500+500 (1000) if you could easily play with a reasonable ROR (in a reasonable amount of time assuming ability to add to BR) with BR of say $3000-$3500 (minimal ROR)?

hey Homeschool,
i dunno about those numbers or the example your maybe trying to represent.

just here is one consideration. one can say, "i have a replenishment BR" and that's all well and fine.
thing is does one really have a replenishment BR? how does one know?

so ok, with a Hail Mary approach you have for a bankroll what you have, or what you have and decide your willing to risk. so here the only really uncertainty is how true your willingness to part with that money is.

then like say your still living under the assumption (illusion? ) that you have a replenishment bankroll, sort of thing.
then you can still turn around and like Dopple points out, scale the amount of the roll that you believe your willing to risk.
i would just hope that Dopple would scale the amount way down of some really nice sized big juicy bankroll that he really has in hand (not some nebulous uncertain, supposedly replenishment bankroll), and then Hail Mary the way lesser amount.

 

[Homeschool]

I guess it would depend on how quick BR would be replenishable. 1mo, 3mo, 6mo, 12mo??.... IMHO that would add to decision of how eager I would be to bet big with high ROR.....Don't know if Dopple is saying his BR is 500u every 6 mo or is just 500u for 6mo win + 500u? ...Personally my BR, although replenishable, would take a long time to replenish (12 mos probly). Also, my numbers for ROR were for $5 game and are just off the top of my head,,,,

 

[ExhibitCAA]

I think all this garbage about "how much should I bet" is so misguided--learn how to beat the games, every game. It doesn't take long before the main betting constraint that applies is the heat limit ("how much can I get away with betting without triggering heat?")

 

[Dopple]

I see your point Exhibit but then what are optimum betting ramps?

 

[daddybo]

I think all this garbage about "how much should I bet" is so misguided--learn how to beat the games, every game. It doesn't take long before the main betting constraint that applies is the heat limit ("how much can I get away with betting without triggering heat?")

well said... It's more about heat and table limits.

 

[sagefr0g]

well said... It's more about heat and table limits.

erhh if it's just counting we are doing, lets add risk as well.

 

[ExhibitCAA]

Dopple, I have no idea what optimum betting ramps are. I've never used software to compute them, and I've never used them. When I want to suddenly bet big, I gauge the dealer's attitude, notice how far away the pit person is, note whether casino procedure will trigger any verbal outcry or phone call, and then I bet what I think I can get away with. And I try to bet it fast and be done with it.

 

[daddybo]

I see your point Exhibit but then what are optimum betting ramps?

Optimum betting ramps are calculated to correspond with EV at various TCs to gradually increase/decrease bets in relation to the true count. Optimum bets at various counts. It is mathematically correct play designed to reduce risk and gradually adjust your bets in favorable situations. I would imagine ECAA plays a different kind of game than you, . Betting ramps are not as important in those scenarios. It's more of a "Bet big when you are going to win... Bet small when you are going to lose" type thing.