running count errors

Discussion in 'Skilled Play - Card Counting, Advanced Strategies' started by ascension, Dec 5, 2011.

  1. ascension

    ascension Member

    because true count conversion requires estimation what is the cost of being off on our running count by 1, i know its important to strive for accuracy, but i was wondering how costly it is for a player to be consistently off by 1 on his running count since true count conversion is an estimation. basically is it of any significance? thanks!
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2011
  2. Friendo

    Friendo Well-Known Member

    Depends on the particular count: ranges from not much to 2*(not much).

    It will be worse for a level-1 count than a level-2 count, because a single point is worth more in level-1 count.

    I have seen this mentioned occasionally, and have run sims with count errors built in.

    I believe such errors have little or no effect on EV. Variance is where they hurt, but not much if it's only +/-1.

    Being, say 1 point too low is identical to missing a 6 that went by. This is the same thing as not having had that 6 dealt at all, which means only that you have given up 1 card worth of penetration: not good, but barely noticeable.

    Lots of off-by-one true count errors would be really bad, however.
  3. ascension

    ascension Member

    thankyou friendo, so since i truncate my true count, being off by plus/minus one in my running shouldn't have a noticeable effect on my ev in shoe games particularly? it would seem to me that as you have less decks to be played being off by plus/minus 1 in your running count will have a bigger effect on your true count conversion.
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2011
  4. Most Interesting Man

    Most Interesting Man Well-Known Member

    Off by one in running count is similar to an extra burn card. How much does the first burn card mess up your game?
  5. UK-21

    UK-21 Well-Known Member

    In a single deck game the cost of the error will be higher than for the six deck shoe games that we tend to be stuck with here in the UK. For a six deck shoe game, I would think that an error of +/-3 on the running count will have little overall impact?
  6. zengrifter

    zengrifter Banned

    No, none ... with the proviso that its not a 'chronic' error but just random. zg
  7. ascension

    ascension Member

    thanks guys! appreciate the responses and insight :p

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