Safe to leave?

[1357111317]

Lets say you are at a casino where if you want to wong you have to go to the bathroom or go get a drink or something and can't return utnil the next shoe. What TC would you say its safe to leave without missing out on a shoe that could return to a positive TC?

 

[callipygian]

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=123683&postcount=3

 

[1357111317]

Thanks Callipygian. However I was looking for data for lower TC's such as -3 and less. Is there any data on that?

 

[callipygian]

Thanks Callipygian. However I was looking for data for lower TC's such as -3 and less. Is there any data on that?

Maybe from other sources, but not me. I generated that data myself to do my own Wonging studies. I'm a hit-and-run kind of guy, so as soon as things start to tilt negative, I'm out of there. Sorry.

 

[stophon]

hey cappyligan you said in the post you linked to that the odds of each count are perfectly symmetrical

I thought that on blackjackincolor it explained that counts of -1 are more common than +1 but it averaged out because + counts are more likely to goto more extreme values. Am I missing something?

 

[callipygian]

hey cappyligan you said in the post you linked to that the odds of each count are perfectly symmetrical

I thought that on blackjackincolor it explained that counts of -1 are more common than +1 but it averaged out because + counts are more likely to goto more extreme values. Am I missing something?

It may say that somewhere on blackjackincolor (your statement rings a bell), but you should check to see whether the author (QFIT?) is talking about SD or not. Because SD deals with very few cards, there are weird anomalies with, for example, negative counts getting deeper penetration because n rounds are dealt regardless of how many cards come out and low cards tend to bring out more cards per hand than high cards. So I'm sure there's some rationale for why you might see count asymmetry in a SD or even DD game.

I contend that the effect on a 6D shoe is insignificant.

 

[k_c]

It may say that somewhere on blackjackincolor (your statement rings a bell), but you should check to see whether the author (QFIT?) is talking about SD or not. Because SD deals with very few cards, there are weird anomalies with, for example, negative counts getting deeper penetration because n rounds are dealt regardless of how many cards come out and low cards tend to bring out more cards per hand than high cards. So I'm sure there's some rationale for why you might see count asymmetry in a SD or even DD game.

I contend that the effect on a 6D shoe is insignificant.

It seems to be that negative counts are more prevalent. In the Weekend Warriors1 thread I simulated 7516 rounds from 6 decks - average counts shown in the first image. I don't recall what the pen was but I think it was 65%. In the Weekend Warriors2 thread I simulated 13018 rounds from 2 decks - average counts shown in second image. Pen was 67%. I was surprised to see average counts tended to be negative.

The reason I simulated so few rounds was because the exact EV using total dependent full shoe basic strategy was calculated and recorded prior to each round. The extraneous figures in row 13026 are the standard deviations for each of the three counts I referenced. I just used Excel's STDEV formula for the +/- result of each round for each count.

 

[rukus]

see blackjack attack by don s. ODP section.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Lets say you are at a casino where if you want to wong you have to go to the bathroom or go get a drink or something and can't return utnil the next shoe. What TC would you say its safe to leave without missing out on a shoe that could return to a positive TC?

My advice would be to set your Wong-out point to hit frequently enough so you never have to risk soiling yourself.

Theoretically almost any shoe can return to positive, but on the average it won't. So leaving at any negative count will not hurt you significantly. You should be Wonging out of negative counts even when you don't have to go the terlit.

 

[1357111317]

Well I would wong out at -2 if that meant a better winrate even if I lost some positive advantage situation. I just want to know what the point at which I woulld be making money by leaving and not coming back.