Should I count?

#1
so i was wondering if i should count with my experience and money

first of all, i never counted in an actual game before or played black jack at casino(even though i know how to play)
however, i have plenty of time to practice before i start counting

second. i only have about 250-350. and minimum bet going around 15 each hand.

so given the experience and money i have should i count cards?

since i know i am going to practice alot i am not worried about experience

but do i have enough money?

thank you
 

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
#3
Seriously,

You need to study B.J. and practice Card Counting for 6 - 9 months.

Then, [to play at $15 minimum stakes] you will need a bankroll
of (preferably) $20,000, but (at minimum) $10,000.

If you want to gamble, feel free to ignore our sage advice;
while we, on this site, prefer to play with an advantage.
 

Grisly Dreams

Well-Known Member
#6
You've got 20 or so minimum bets in your bankroll. Nearly all the guidelines I've seen recommend at least 100 maximum bets to avoid being wiped out. Even if you are only spreading $15-$60, that would call for $6000.

But if you've got nothing better to do, learn to count cards. Just do it away from casinos.
 

Blue Efficacy

Well-Known Member
#7
If you love to play blackjack, it would be better to count cards and play with an advantage, regardless of bankroll.

Certain individuals like to turn their noses up at underbankrolled players, but it can be done.

First, you must be willing to accept the fact that the odds of your losing it all is very good.

Second, if you are relegated to $15 minimum games, hopefully it is a very good game indeed.

Lastly, you must wong with a low bankroll, if every bet you place is when you have at least a mild advantage, that will lower your risk of losing it all. Play positive counts only.

Note there also exists the possibility that you must split up to 4 hands, and perhaps have one or two double downs after the split. You must be prepared for such things.

What are you going to do if your last bet ends up being 11 or a pair of aces, and the dealer shows a 6?

There are many problems with playing with a small bankroll. Some can be overcome, some cannot.
 
#8
Grisly Dreams said:
You've got 20 or so minimum bets in your bankroll. Nearly all the guidelines I've seen recommend at least 100 maximum bets to avoid being wiped out. Even if you are only spreading $15-$60, that would call for $6000.

But if you've got nothing better to do, learn to count cards. Just do it away from casinos.
first of all thank you for your answer

i might go later this week and like 4-5 months later by then hopefull i am ready

ive been practicing counting for a bit using Hi-op II counting system

i found out that i could get 5 dollar minimum bet at nearby casino

so will that call for $2000 bankroll instead of $6000?

Blue Efficacy said:
If you love to play blackjack, it would be better to count cards and play with an advantage, regardless of bankroll.

Certain individuals like to turn their noses up at underbankrolled players, but it can be done.

First, you must be willing to accept the fact that the odds of your losing it all is very good.

Second, if you are relegated to $15 minimum games, hopefully it is a very good game indeed.

Lastly, you must wong with a low bankroll, if every bet you place is when you have at least a mild advantage, that will lower your risk of losing it all. Play positive counts only.

Note there also exists the possibility that you must split up to 4 hands, and perhaps have one or two double downs after the split. You must be prepared for such things.

What are you going to do if your last bet ends up being 11 or a pair of aces, and the dealer shows a 6?

There are many problems with playing with a small bankroll. Some can be overcome, some cannot.
that was very helpful.. thank you

in couple months i could save up to maybe $1000-2000 and i will have enough time to practice. and if i go at right time the minimum bet can be 5 dollars instead of 15

so will that be good enough?

and wouldnt dealer get little suspicious if i just sit out certain hands?

i am still learning to count. like i can count the whole deck without making a mistake usually with good speed. but is there certain way i should study counting?
like reading a book? or finding someone who already know how to count?-i am finding that gamemasters blackjack school is very useful but if u have any other suggestions let me know

sry for asking alot of questions and thx for answering
 
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callipygian

Well-Known Member
#9
There are four things you need to keep in mind when it comes to money.

(1) Expected Value (EV). This is the fraction of each bet that you expect to win. If you have positive EV, you expect to win money in the long run, if you have negative EV, you expect to lose money in the long run. If you play blackjack by mimicking the dealer, you will have an EV of about -0.09 (house edge of 9%), which is very bad. If you play basic strategy, you will have an EV of about -0.005 (house edge of 0.5%), which is the best game in the casino. If you count cards and bet properly, you can have positive EV's, generally somewhere between +0.005 and +0.02 (player edge of 0.5% to 2%).

(2) Standard Deviation (SD). This is a measure of how far your actual results will vary from your EV. The larger your SD, the more "luck" factors in. If you play basic strategy, your SD will be around 1.15, which means that for each hand you play, you can expect to be between EV-SD = -1.155 and EV+SD = +1.145 about 84% of the time, and between EV-2*SD = -2.305 and EV+2*SD = +2.295 about 95% of the time.

(3) Bankroll. This is the amount of money you've set aside to gamble with. It should be separate from anything that you need to live on, both from the perspective that you shouldn't be gambling with rent money and from the perspective that you need to keep good records to evaluate yourself. Bankrolls range anywhere from a few hundred dollars for recreational players playing low stakes to millions of dollars for seasoned pros playing high stakes.

(4) Risk of Ruin (ROR). This is the likelihood that your bankroll will hit 0 at some point and you will be "broke." Obviously, for professionals, ROR needs to be very small because they have a lot to lose (<<1%), whereas for recreational players a higher ROR (5-10% and maybe even higher) is acceptable.

The most important thing to realize is that all four of these things are interconnected. Generally, if you know three of these things, you can calculate the fourth; if you know zero of these things, it's pretty difficult to estimate any of them.

Your bet spread and playing style will dictate your EV and SD. There are computer programs to do those calculations for you. Then you need to either decide how much of a bankroll you have to calculate your ROR, or you need to decide how much of a ROR you're willing to stomach and calculate how much of a bankroll you'll need. Again, there are programs which will do the math for you.

As a starting point, $250-$300 isn't bad if you can save more. Just realize that it's basically one shot, if you have bad luck you'll go busto really quickly. I'd say try it once you're confident of your skills - who knows, you might realize you hate blackjack and it's not fun and you don't want to continue.

If you plan to play regularly, you'll need more. If you eventually want to go pro, you'll need even more than that. There's no good way to answer your question without knowing more specifics.
 

StandardDeviant

Well-Known Member
#10
One thing you might do is spend some time in the casino in low-spread, red chip play so you can get some true-life practice. You need to be able to keep the count, figure your bet, talk to the dealer and other players at the table, keep an eye on the pit boss, chat with the waitresses, and put on an act that keeps you from looking like a counter. That takes practice, and learning to keep the count is only the first step.

Rather than trying to figure out how to make a fortune off right off the bat, try some play with small or no bet spreading. This will keep your deviations down, which is critical with a small bankroll.

Put together a bankroll of about at least 100 units, and head to the casino for some practice. Find a 6 or 8 deck shoe game with a low table minumum. $10 is great if you can find it. If you keep your spreads low, no greater than 1:4, your money "should" last a fairly long time and you can book the needed practice. You won't have much of a positive EV with this approach, but you will be able to practice for hours on end without attracting heat or losing your stake. (Note: with 100 units, your RoR will not be insignificant, but I'm assuming you could replace that bankroll over time.)

Critics will point out that you won't make money using this approach, and they are right. At best, you'll break about even. But your objective in the early months should be to get better, not richer. That comes later. There isn't a top pro out there, in any endeavor, who didn't start by putting in the time (and the dime). So if you want to get good...get busy and do it right.

During the months you are practicing using the approach above, save up a bigger bankroll, so when you are ready you'll have the $$$ to put on bigger spreads at larger unit sizes. But resist the temptation to do this too soon, because you need to play like a pro before you bet like one.
 
#11
My advice is that if you don't mind losing what you have, go for it, and get a feel for the casino, counting on the spot etc.
Then when you save up more you can be more confident, as you will have experience.
Experience is experience. :)
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#12
FLASH1296 said:
Seriously,Then, [to play at $15 minimum stakes] you will need a bankroll
of (preferably) $20,000, but (at minimum) $10,000.
If you want to gamble, feel free to ignore our sage advice;
while we, on this site, prefer to play with an advantage.
To me, he can play with the same advantage with $500 as you do with $25,000 bucks.

The only difference between $500 roll or $25K roll is risk of ruin.

Not advantage.
 
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