Should I keep doing this?

[Kevin Lin]

Greetings guys, I just started counting seriously for a few sessions. Making some AP errors here and there but came out ahead in winnings nonetheless (will work on the plays). For the last 3 sessions, I'm up +$675. I have several questions to ask you veterans of BJ, since my local casino is quite weird (Montreal, Canada).

First, my bankroll has not been determined, since I need money to spend for bills and I'm working part time as a student. I am estimating to put about $4000+ into blackjack but it hasn't been determined yet. The reason why I need to put this much is because all the lower limit tables are 6 to 5 BJ. I attached a CVCX simulation result, but it's not accurate. My spread is 1-5 throughout 2 hands at a TC+2 using I18.

I don't know if there is the option, but instead of wonging in and out, I play from the start of a new shoe and leave at a TC of -1, because if you don't start at the beginning of the shoe, you cannot play more than 1 hand and your max bet is $100. I'd want to be able to play 2 hands in order to maximize my EV, this is the only way. I've tried also wonging in and out, but the EV is much less since I am stuck on 1 hand with a huge bet.

The only good available game that is profitable in the entire building is 8D H17 DAS NoRSA 5.5Pen. For many this type of game is not the optimal game but it is beatable.

I'd like to know if there is anybody who can tell me if I should lower my RoR (19.5% right now if I'm wonging) even though my goal is to lower it by following the bets shown in the chart or should I stick to what I've been doing (betting from the start of the shoe and leave at TC-1)? Should I get more money for the bankroll? If anyone could provide me with a visual from simulations/give me advice to improve my bankroll management it would be great!

 

[Meistro]

you don't want to bet more than $100 anyway so that rule is pretty moot. given your limited bankroll and high table minimums you will want to be just wonging in at TC +2.

 

[KewlJ]

The reason why I need to put this much is because all the lower limit tables are 6 to 5 BJ.

Welcome Kevin. First I would advise you not post under your real name. Second I want to clarify the line that I have quoted before we go any further because it is ultra important. You aren't saying that you are playing 6:5 BJ right? You are saying all the low limit games, presumably $5 minimums, are 6:5, so you are playing higher tables (although you didn't specify what the table minimums were). Is this correct?

Next an 8 deck game with anything more than 2 decks cut off is pretty difficult to beat and make any kind of decent money. I have made a career out of playing very mediocre games.....games that other professional players won't touch or even look at and I wouldn't play that game.

If you are going to play off the top and exit aggressively at true counts of -1 (as you suggested), you are going to need a bigger spread than 1-5. And if you are going to wong in and play only true counts greater than +2, as your CVCX sim results suggests, you are only going to be playing a small percentage of the hands seen.

So here are my two questions: Do you really want to play with a high RoR of 19-30% to make $7 per hour? And have a reasonably high risk of losing your $4000 along the way?

 

[Kevin Lin]

@KewlJ I made the account too fast, didn't even pay attention to the username box, I let Chrome fill out the information for me. I am playing on 3:2, I am aware that 6:5 is bad. The minimum on my table is $20. 6:5 minimum is $10 by the way...(pretty sure they make too much money on those, I've seen then at $15 during peak hours/holidays).

I have friends who play those 8 deck games as an income boost/living (I know 1 who used to play with a BR of $40k), I do know that it is hard, counts rarely reaches high etc. There is nothing else in my local casino, every BJ games are 8D. We have BJ Switch/Free Bet also though (I know another guy who counts switch, since it's apparently less volatile than reg BJ).

I also forgot to mention that I only play from the start of the shoe for the 1st deck only, if it doesn't maintain a positive count I will leave. Sometimes there's not enough people to be able to wong in and out effectively so I have to play out the shoe from the start/request a shuffle if I really want to play. I am also aware that there is only about 10% of hands to be played if I'm wonging, I did try it a few times recently and I've found out that it's better, but I enjoy playing the game also.

Since I don't go play often (once/twice a month) and I only bring 20BTU to play with, my bankroll on the long run could be going up faster than my 20BTU loss/session. I still haven't seen the actual effect on the $7/hr since I'm too far ahead in the variance (+$675) in 3 sessions of 3 hrs, I can't really answer that. But if it is the actual result that I will be getting in a real life situation with this much risk, for sure I wouldn't be fine with that.

I've heard people who started card counting with a bank roll as low as $2000-3000, I have no idea how I want to make this work for myself, since the games are not the best and especially expensive.

 

[KewlJ]

Ok, good that we clarified the 6:5 thing. Didn't mean to suggest that you didn't know the difference or treat you like a newbie, but the way you phrased it just seemed a little odd to me. I was pretty sure you meant what you did, but it is just too big an issue to not clarify.

I like the term "income boost". While I play for a living, just entering my 14th year, I have come to the conclusion that in today's world, BJ really works best as an "income boost" or what I call a supplemental income type thing.

BTW, I am one of those people that you have heard about (maybe not me specifically), but I started my blackjack career....my only income....at age 20, with a bankroll of $4300. That's why I know it is almost impossible to do. You have to be "win-the-lottery" type....lucky. And usually the people that pulled it off, like me, were just too lacking in knowledge of the game (stupid) to even realize how lucky we were until years later.

But anyway, I am getting ahead of myself, because I don't remember you stating that you were looking to play for a living. Since you are a student, I am assuming not and assuming you will have better options. Options are always a good thing. Playing a couple times a month it sounds like you just want to have fun and hopefully make a few bucks instead of losing a few bucks and there's nothing wrong with that goal.

I still would be a little troubled by such a high RoR to make $7 and hour. That would be too much risk for me (at least today....I played that kind of risk when I started out).

I am not familiar with BTU...what does that stand for?

 

[Kevin Lin]

BTU = Betting units, it's in some books haha. So I play at the $20 tables, I bring $400 for 20 BTU. (A bit surprised that it's not as used)

So what do you suggest me for doing, wonging is sometimes boring when you find nothing. I believe wonging is the best strategy to hit the tables, do you have any tips to improve my wonging experience (Finding a partner or something maybe?)? My friend used to count 2 tables simultaneously, it's ridiculous when I think about it; it takes quite some level of focus in order to do so.

How much of a RoR should I tolerate, should I change my spread (lower it)?

When you mentioned luck, I shall say in today's session I got really lucky, I played 2 full shoes and the count would automatically go up gradually after the first 5 hands. I made quite a few deviation mistakes at the wrong count/not hitting my 16 when I'm suppose to but still ended up making 500 nonetheless. Also, do you have any tips to improve card counting to keep track of the count etc? I was counting with chips on the table (pretty obvious), now I am using my fingers on 1 hand under the table to count.

 

[KewlJ]

So what do you suggest me for doing, wonging is sometimes boring when you find nothing. I believe wonging is the best strategy to hit the tables, do you have any tips to improve my wonging experience.

How much of a RoR should I tolerate, should I change my spread (lower it)?

I don't have any suggestions, sorry. If that's the game you have in close proximity and it is worth it to you to make that amount....then play it. If not then don't. Sorry...no great words of wisdom. I also can't tell you what RoR you should tolerate. That's a personal choice. Just know that when you are playing with a reasonably high RoR, that it really means you could lose those funds.

My friend used to count 2 tables simultaneously, it's ridiculous when I think about it; it takes quite some level of focus in order to do so.

I track two tables simultaneously, although I do it by playing one table while tracking a neighboring table. It isn't as hard as you think or it sounds with a little practice. AND your tracking doesn't have to be 100% accurate. You try to be as accurate as you can, but if you miss a card or two because you get blocked, which happens frequently, or even allowing for mistakes, your count doesn't need to be exact. All you need to know is that one table has a more advantageous situation (count) than the second. In my case of playing one table and tracking a second, all I need to know is that second table is more advantageous than the one I am playing. If I am off slightly....so be it.