It depends on the rules of the game you play. For the 6 deck shoe game I play and using the method I use (HiLo and probably more indices than you are planning to use), to turn $5,000 to $15,000 ($10,000 profit) using the bet spread you suggested would have a 39% ROR and 61% chance of reaching goal (assuming no time constraint, Wong in at TC 1 and out at TC -2).
Should I take a shot at the big bucks?
- Thread starter apex
- Start date
If you feel you can be mentally stable and not steam, I say go for it. The guys who either strike out or hit big home runs are instrumental in the outcome of baseball games.
You may strike out, or you may hit a home run here. You just need to make sure you can handle the nasty stuff the casino may throw at you, and not swing at pitches out of the zone.
You may strike out, or you may hit a home run here. You just need to make sure you can handle the nasty stuff the casino may throw at you, and not swing at pitches out of the zone.
I can see how you got hook on gambling. That first $2000 win. It looks like you can now take a shot at $15,000.
Why is the business paying $80,000 a year boring. Being your own boss for one. Ask others here about their regular 9 to 5 job.
Business is never about making easy money. Especially through gambling. So I don't know where you are coming from.
Why is the business paying $80,000 a year boring. Being your own boss for one. Ask others here about their regular 9 to 5 job.
Business is never about making easy money. Especially through gambling. So I don't know where you are coming from.
I wouldn't say I am hooked on gambling from the $2000 win, but it did hook me on counting cards when I am gambling.
I don't currently make $80,000 per year, its more like $50,000. Im not trying to make easy money. I want to take over this business, put in the work and reap the rewards. The business I want to buy is similar to the one I own now, it's just a little bigger. It is kind of like the 9-5 folks wanting a promotion, or a new job with better pay. I see it as the next step in life for me.
What I am thinking about doing here is trying to see if my new knowledge of blackjack can help me get a step head. So the way I see it, I can give this a shot and have a 35-40% chance of succeeding in getting a step ahead, or a 60-65% of failing and falling a half step (really more like a sixth of a step) back.
I don't currently make $80,000 per year, its more like $50,000. Im not trying to make easy money. I want to take over this business, put in the work and reap the rewards. The business I want to buy is similar to the one I own now, it's just a little bigger. It is kind of like the 9-5 folks wanting a promotion, or a new job with better pay. I see it as the next step in life for me.
What I am thinking about doing here is trying to see if my new knowledge of blackjack can help me get a step head. So the way I see it, I can give this a shot and have a 35-40% chance of succeeding in getting a step ahead, or a 60-65% of failing and falling a half step (really more like a sixth of a step) back.
I'm not sure you are aware of this, but with the stroke of a keyboard, anyone can go back and read your posting history. Yesterday you made one post stating you had yet to make a $25 bet in a casino. Try to be a bit more consistant.
If you really have $45,000 and if you really own a business that pays you $50,000 a year and if you really can finance $190,000 of the $250,000 purchase of a new business, you have everything you need right now.
A ten minute talk to any SCORE member would get you your loan right now.
If you really have $45,000 and if you really own a business that pays you $50,000 a year and if you really can finance $190,000 of the $250,000 purchase of a new business, you have everything you need right now.
A ten minute talk to any SCORE member would get you your loan right now.
Shad
I think I am being pretty consistent. You certainly are consitent with your snarky replies. Is there a stroke of my keyboard I can use to ignore people? I am going to look into that. Maybe you should too and just ignore me rather than trolling all of my posts.
I said I had never sat down at a $25 table, not that I hadn't made a $25 bet. I think it was clear to most that I ment I have never sat at a table with a $25 bet min.
You may be right. It may be possible for me to finance this with 45k somewhere. I haven't looked everywhere, but it is not easy to get this type of loan. The place the seller is working with says it's got to be $60k to make the deal happen. Is it really hard to believe that someone has $45k and owns a business that makes $50k? Well thats me story so believe it or don't I don't care. The purpose of the background information was so people don't think i am taking my only $5k and going crazy.
I think I am being pretty consistent. You certainly are consitent with your snarky replies. Is there a stroke of my keyboard I can use to ignore people? I am going to look into that. Maybe you should too and just ignore me rather than trolling all of my posts.
I said I had never sat down at a $25 table, not that I hadn't made a $25 bet. I think it was clear to most that I ment I have never sat at a table with a $25 bet min.
You may be right. It may be possible for me to finance this with 45k somewhere. I haven't looked everywhere, but it is not easy to get this type of loan. The place the seller is working with says it's got to be $60k to make the deal happen. Is it really hard to believe that someone has $45k and owns a business that makes $50k? Well thats me story so believe it or don't I don't care. The purpose of the background information was so people don't think i am taking my only $5k and going crazy.
time
seems like it would take what? about seven weeks (five days a week) if you played a five hour session a day to maybe get close to your goal. practically maybe eight weeks? some where around two months maybe more if things don't go so swell.
errh i think you said you could save up the dough in eight months?
so you could save up half the dough in four months?
erhh but you'd have your hands full five hours a day, five days a week.
whatever, i wouldn't wanna try it, doesn't seem practical for one thing.
would the sale still be available after four months?
could maybe take a heck of a lot longer, no, maybe eight months, lol, no offense meant.
erhh, definitely i don't like that $50 min bet your planning on.
seems like it would take what? about seven weeks (five days a week) if you played a five hour session a day to maybe get close to your goal. practically maybe eight weeks? some where around two months maybe more if things don't go so swell.
errh i think you said you could save up the dough in eight months?
so you could save up half the dough in four months?
erhh but you'd have your hands full five hours a day, five days a week.
whatever, i wouldn't wanna try it, doesn't seem practical for one thing.
would the sale still be available after four months?
could maybe take a heck of a lot longer, no, maybe eight months, lol, no offense meant.
erhh, definitely i don't like that $50 min bet your planning on.
The time it would take is a good point. I thought if I were playing that high I would either lose or win pretty fast. I guess the swings aren't quite big enough to win that much in just a few sessions.
If it does take 8 weeks, there are travel costs that have to be considered. I don't live close to a good game.
Tested the waters today at a $25 min table. I was a little tentative, didn't even bet the full $200 a 1-8 spread would call for even though +5 hit a couple times. I think part of it was because it was the only table in that pit with a new dealer and the pit boss was just watching us, and part because it is too big of a game for me and my BR and I was scared.
I guess I am going to chicken out and keep playing $5-$75.
If it does take 8 weeks, there are travel costs that have to be considered. I don't live close to a good game.
Tested the waters today at a $25 min table. I was a little tentative, didn't even bet the full $200 a 1-8 spread would call for even though +5 hit a couple times. I think part of it was because it was the only table in that pit with a new dealer and the pit boss was just watching us, and part because it is too big of a game for me and my BR and I was scared.
I guess I am going to chicken out and keep playing $5-$75.
Using Southpaw's figures, it would appear that the proposal you're contemplating gives you a 45% chance of making $15K and a 55% chance of losing $5K.
However; looking at it from a different angle, it could easily be argued that your chances are closer to this: 55% chance of losing 5K and 45% chance of making $45,000!
Why do I say this?
45% of the time, you'll be able to win $15K and buy the business immediately, rather than waiting a year to save up the money. If that happens, you can expect to make $30K more in this next year than you're making now. This phenomenon is known in the poker world as " implied pot odds". Often times a poker player will correctly make a NEGATIVE expectation bet because of pot odds.
Couple this with the very real and likely possibility that someone else may snatch this business up before you can save up the money;IMO there is enough immediacy in this situation that going ahead with this plan may very well BE the wise choice.
I think I know what Warren Buffet would do. :grin:
However; looking at it from a different angle, it could easily be argued that your chances are closer to this: 55% chance of losing 5K and 45% chance of making $45,000!
Why do I say this?
45% of the time, you'll be able to win $15K and buy the business immediately, rather than waiting a year to save up the money. If that happens, you can expect to make $30K more in this next year than you're making now. This phenomenon is known in the poker world as " implied pot odds". Often times a poker player will correctly make a NEGATIVE expectation bet because of pot odds.
Couple this with the very real and likely possibility that someone else may snatch this business up before you can save up the money;IMO there is enough immediacy in this situation that going ahead with this plan may very well BE the wise choice.
I think I know what Warren Buffet would do. :grin:
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I think these figures that we are using to determine Apex's chance of sucess are severly skewed. Simulation is based on proper optimal play and wagering. Apex has played a total of 40 hours spreading $5/$10 to $75 so far. No offense to Apex, but he doesn't seem anywhere near prepared for this. Is he playing well enough? Is he counting well enough? Will he chicken out (as he now suggests) when it is time to throw out a few $400 wagers or split and double down a top wager? Not to rain on this parade, but these unanswered questions make his real life RoR much higher than the sim indicates.
kewljason said:
I think these figures that we are using to determine Apex's chance of sucess are severly skewed. Simulation is based on proper optimal play and wagering. Apex has played a total of 40 hours spreading $5/$10 to $75 so far. No offense to Apex, but he doesn't seem anywhere near prepared for this. Is he playing well enough? Is he counting well enough? Will he chicken out (as he now suggests) when it is time to throw out a few $400 wagers or split and double down a top wager? Not to rain on this parade, but these unanswered questions make his real life RoR much higher than the sim indicates.
And Shadroch, I think the problem with the roulette idea is that he is only willing to risk 5k, whereas he would be putting down 15k (and most likely losing all of it) on the roulette wheel.
My advice to apex would be to be willing to increase the amount of money that he was willing to play with. I think stepping up from 5k to 7.5k would significantly alter his RoR for the better, though I'm only speaking from intuition at the moment.
SP
Discipline is a BIG factor
At this point, I think Apex is better off to completely avoid gaming and borrow the 15k or whatever he's short for the "down money".
Too many possibilities are out there for trying the other plan. Sure, winning the 15k is one of them but even if he does, the temptation from that success may lead to continued play with bigger bets. If so, what happens if he soon hits the dreaded negative variance?
His desire for the business seems strong enough that he should hold off on gaming until he's a successful business person. Then he can approach the game with a different perspective.
Not knowing his level of self discipline, that would be my advice.
BillyC1
At this point, I think Apex is better off to completely avoid gaming and borrow the 15k or whatever he's short for the "down money".
Too many possibilities are out there for trying the other plan. Sure, winning the 15k is one of them but even if he does, the temptation from that success may lead to continued play with bigger bets. If so, what happens if he soon hits the dreaded negative variance?
His desire for the business seems strong enough that he should hold off on gaming until he's a successful business person. Then he can approach the game with a different perspective.
Not knowing his level of self discipline, that would be my advice.
BillyC1
This is well said. In some ways I would be wagering $5000 to "win" something worth $250,000. Now of course I would be paying the $250,000 partially with my down payment, and partially over 3-5 years, but if the value of the deal is high enough to me it could make a lot of sense.
On the other thing, buying the business isn't a sure thing even if I get the money. I want to buy this business, and need $60,000 to do it. But that is just the magic number for the seller to start to take me seriously. I still might not get financing, someone else might jump in ahead of me, or I might back out. Last time I made an offer and got to the "due diligence" phase I found that the seller had exaggerated the income and left out some expenses.
I think SP is right in the ball park. I certainly don't play perfect. Every session I play there is at least one hand I wasn't sure about that I look up when I get home. I think my biggest problem would be underbetting. Even when im playing $10 units, I get scared betting $100 because they call out "checks in play." If im not willing to put that top bet out there when it is called for almost all of my edge would be lost. I don't think I would chicken out on double downs and spilts though. I know those are where you really have the edge and would be quite foolish to pass those opportunities up. More practice would certainly be wise before I wager significant money.
This is another thing I have thought about. Technically I need to "have" 60k to borrow the rest. The bank would not allow the loan if they knew I borrowed 15k to get it. I could probably have my parents "gift" me the money and "gift" it back to them later. So far I have been too proud to ask, but this is probably the best option. Also, they may not have it. I know they make good money, but also keep it tied up in investments.
As far as variance and self discipline, I am certain I would error on the conservative side. If I won a lot I wouldn't up my bets, but if I had a bad session there is a decent chance I would go back to 5-75 or quit for awhile.
I think in both blackjack and business I am trying to go from "walking" to "flying" here. I really have no business in a green chip game yet, and I can't afford this business. This thread I started was somewhere between a serious though, and a dream. I think now I am back to reality, which means practicing blackjack more, and finding a partner or passing on this business. There will be more opportunites.
On the other thing, buying the business isn't a sure thing even if I get the money. I want to buy this business, and need $60,000 to do it. But that is just the magic number for the seller to start to take me seriously. I still might not get financing, someone else might jump in ahead of me, or I might back out. Last time I made an offer and got to the "due diligence" phase I found that the seller had exaggerated the income and left out some expenses.
I think SP is right in the ball park. I certainly don't play perfect. Every session I play there is at least one hand I wasn't sure about that I look up when I get home. I think my biggest problem would be underbetting. Even when im playing $10 units, I get scared betting $100 because they call out "checks in play." If im not willing to put that top bet out there when it is called for almost all of my edge would be lost. I don't think I would chicken out on double downs and spilts though. I know those are where you really have the edge and would be quite foolish to pass those opportunities up. More practice would certainly be wise before I wager significant money.
This is another thing I have thought about. Technically I need to "have" 60k to borrow the rest. The bank would not allow the loan if they knew I borrowed 15k to get it. I could probably have my parents "gift" me the money and "gift" it back to them later. So far I have been too proud to ask, but this is probably the best option. Also, they may not have it. I know they make good money, but also keep it tied up in investments.
As far as variance and self discipline, I am certain I would error on the conservative side. If I won a lot I wouldn't up my bets, but if I had a bad session there is a decent chance I would go back to 5-75 or quit for awhile.
I think in both blackjack and business I am trying to go from "walking" to "flying" here. I really have no business in a green chip game yet, and I can't afford this business. This thread I started was somewhere between a serious though, and a dream. I think now I am back to reality, which means practicing blackjack more, and finding a partner or passing on this business. There will be more opportunites.