Shuffle tracking Discussion

[iCountNTrack]

For the shuffle trackers out there what kind of EV do YOU expect from your game compared to just counting.

Prime number man, you have asked this question before many times, and you have been given a lot of very good answers. So why do repeat the same question over and over. Again hopefully for the last time: estimating an EV for ST is not as easy or as determinable as it is counting, because of the increased number of uncontrollable factors, your EV could range anywhere from 1% to 4%. The 4% high limit could be achieved if you have a very simple one pass shuffle, and you were able to track every single slug to generate a full shoe map (which could be a tedious task).

You seem to worry way too much about EV that is not the only thing that you should about. Again your win rate = (total bet/hour)*EV, if you are able to increase your (total bet)/hour your win rate will increase even if your EV remains constant. Identifying more advantageous situations correlates with an increase in (total bet)/hour, which GOOD ST betting strategies would offer.

I think you don't fully appreciate the valor of simple counting, and you might be seduced by the 5% EV semi-myth.

 

[Ferretnparrot]

Perhaps one way to estimate yoru ev from it, since it woudl be dependant on how efficient you are at it, woudl be to gauge the average ev gained for each card cut behind the cut card.

You could then somehow keep an average of how many cards you personaly cut behind it in your real world play to view your average change in EV form tracking, except only the tracking where you put cards behind the cut card and not to the top of the shoe.

Its a start.

 

[1357111317]

Prime number man, you have asked this question before many times, and you have been given a lot of very good answers. So why do repeat the same question over and over. Again hopefully for the last time: estimating an EV for ST is not as easy or as determinable as it is counting, because of the increased number of uncontrollable factors, your EV could range anywhere from 1% to 4%. The 4% high limit could be achieved if you have a very simple one pass shuffle, and you were able to track every single slug to generate a full shoe map (which could be a tedious task).

You seem to worry way too much about EV that is not the only thing that you should about. Again your win rate = (total bet/hour)*EV, if you are able to increase your (total bet)/hour your win rate will increase even if your EV remains constant. Identifying more advantageous situations correlates with an increase in (total bet)/hour, which GOOD ST betting strategies would offer.

I think you don't fully appreciate the valor of simple counting, and you might be seduced by the 5% EV semi-myth.

CountNtrack I know what people have said about what range of EV's you can get from shuffle tracking. I was just wondering if there are any trackers out there who are willing to disclose what they usually expect their EV to be.


Also another question I have for any trackers out there is have any of you been backed off due to your shuffle tracking. I doubt many are willing to disclose this publicly but once again a PM would be fine. Or possible just share certain things to avoid while shuffle tracking.

 

[bjcount]

Also another question I have for any trackers out there is have any of you been backed off due to your shuffle tracking. I doubt many are willing to disclose this publicly but once again a PM would be fine. Or possible just share certain things to avoid while shuffle tracking.

Prime man
Here's something to avoid...

I have kept a mental track of my cuts during the past eight visits to different stores. I had this problem with cutting to an Ace. 80% of my cuts landed on the Ace, please don't PM me for how, sorry but I will not disclose. We looked in disgust as the ace was burned and of course someone at the table had to say something like, "Why do you always have to burn the Ace?". After the fourth or fifth time consecutively having the cut card and burning the Ace each time, a PB came over to watch my next cut. I didn't burn an ace that time . So I had to work out my problem on my cuts. Making the necessary adjustments, on my last couple of visits I improved but now I can't land the Ace on my hand or those with me, but on a strangers & on the dealers. We were frying mad :flame:.

I'm in a different pit from my previous visit and who shows up? The PB I mention above. I get the cut card, now knowing there were 6 aces dealt in the previous shoe within the first few hands of the first deck of cards dealt, I got this one pegged. PB is still watching. I go out three hands and the "we" cover the other open boxes. All the boxes are full, first hand out of the shoe.

Dealer looks at me with this really funny look. I look at my "we", then the PB, and say come on everyone gets BJ but the dealer! Burn card, 5. Oh yes I think got it this time. First cards come out, we all get cards between 6 & 9, dealer gets a....... Ten. Second card comes out.... of the six boxes on the table, 5 get aces..... ****!!!!! where's the 6th ace? Do I have to say anymore? dealer checks his hole card.... looks at me and says you are good, now I see why you did what you did. Looks at the PB, they both look at me... the dealer flips over a BJ! :flame::flame:. The PB loked at me, told me it was a good try, and walked away.

If there is a PB whom has watched you before, be careful. I would have bet I would have been tapped if we all pulled BJ's on his watch.

I don't think you could truely determine how ST, etc., improves your EV unless you have perfect accuracy or at least 90%.

BJC

 

[Twentyone]

Tracking

When I shuffle tracked and counted I was unbeatable. I started talking to the person next to me and lost the track. Is there an easier way then counting the negative sements and tracking......could I possible count the plus side and cut it out instead of the later????? With a double shuffle first staggered then even shuffles? Also I am cutting to the negative cards but want to be more accurate can anyone suggest and easier tracking method. Right now my segements are divided into six one decks......then I watch and cut to the negative........I got really good at it but I am looking for an easier way anyone?

 

[rukus]

Prime number man, you have asked this question before many times, and you have been given a lot of very good answers. So why do repeat the same question over and over. Again hopefully for the last time: estimating an EV for ST is not as easy or as determinable as it is counting, because of the increased number of uncontrollable factors, your EV could range anywhere from 1% to 4%. The 4% high limit could be achieved if you have a very simple one pass shuffle, and you were able to track every single slug to generate a full shoe map (which could be a tedious task).

You seem to worry way too much about EV that is not the only thing that you should about. Again your win rate = (total bet/hour)*EV, if you are able to increase your (total bet)/hour your win rate will increase even if your EV remains constant. Identifying more advantageous situations correlates with an increase in (total bet)/hour, which GOOD ST betting strategies would offer.

I think you don't fully appreciate the valor of simple counting, and you might be seduced by the 5% EV semi-myth.

EV isnt the only thing as ICNT mentions. Variance probably decrease very slightly as well. you want to compare SCORE rather than just EV and winrate.

 

[RJT]

EV isnt the only thing as ICNT mentions. Variance probably decrease very slightly as well. you want to compare SCORE rather than just EV and winrate.

Only if you are a perfect tracker and everything ends up exactly where you think it will every time - if you make even a few small errors it's very possible that you'll increase variance rather than decrease.

RJT.

 

[RJT]

When I shuffle tracked and counted I was unbeatable. I started talking to the person next to me and lost the track. Is there an easier way then counting the negative sements and tracking......could I possible count the plus side and cut it out instead of the later????? With a double shuffle first staggered then even shuffles? Also I am cutting to the negative cards but want to be more accurate can anyone suggest and easier tracking method. Right now my segements are divided into six one decks......then I watch and cut to the negative........I got really good at it but I am looking for an easier way anyone?

This isn't what you're wanting to hear i know, but frankly if you're not good enough at counting to manage that while talking to other players, you're not good enough to track.
On top of this your tracking method sounds vastly over simplified and dependant more on a map of what should happen rather than what actually does happens.

RJT.

 

[iCountNTrack]

EV isnt the only thing as ICNT mentions. Variance probably decrease very slightly as well. you want to compare SCORE rather than just EV and winrate.

As a matter of fact when you shuffle track the variance per round increases because you are total action per hour increases since you are able to identify more advantgeous situations over simple counting luckily your hourly win rate increases as well and so does your SCORE

 

[rukus]

Only if you are a perfect tracker and everything ends up exactly where you think it will every time - if you make even a few small errors it's very possible that you'll increase variance rather than decrease.

RJT.

agreed 100%. You will likely decrease ev as well for a double whammy of WTF :flame:

 

[rukus]

As a matter of fact when you shuffle track the variance per round increases because you are total action per hour increases since you are able to identify more advantgeous situations over simple counting luckily your hourly win rate increases as well and so does your SCORE

Agreed in a dollar basis. But what about on a unit basis? As in, say you fix the number of units bet at each true count whether counting or STing and only adjust the dollar value you assign to each unit (which as you point out increases because you are able to bet more per TC on dollar basis as you identify advantageous situations). What im trying to get at is in my head, if i track a slug of TC 5 to a one deck segment, i KNOW the count has to drop in that segment, compared to playing a shoe regularly from the top and seeing a TC 5 soon after - in that straight counting case you do not have any clue where that excess of tens/aces is hiding in the shoe and thus the variance of a bet there on a unit basis should be higher than in the ST example. At least in my head that makes sense (granted i have not thought it all the way through at 2am here). Maybe I like to look at things backwards sometimes :grin:

EDIT: now that i think about it, the variance of the TC would go down but I'm not so sure about the variance of the actual hand itself. Something a sim can answer definitively im sure.

 

[Nynefingers]

Agreed in a dollar basis. But what about on a unit basis? As in, say you fix the number of units bet at each true count whether counting or STing and only adjust the dollar value you assign to each unit (which as you point out increases because you are able to bet more per TC on dollar basis as you identify advantageous situations). What im trying to get at is in my head, if i track a slug of TC 5 to a one deck segment, i KNOW the count has to drop in that segment, compared to playing a shoe regularly from the top and seeing a TC 5 soon after - in that straight counting case you do not have any clue where that excess of tens/aces is hiding in the shoe and thus the variance of a bet there on a unit basis should be higher than in the ST example. At least in my head that makes sense (granted i have not thought it all the way through at 2am here). Maybe I like to look at things backwards sometimes :grin:

EDIT: now that i think about it, the variance of the TC would go down but I'm not so sure about the variance of the actual hand itself. Something a sim can answer definitively im sure.

The biggest reason that the variance goes up is simply because the bets go up. When you identify profitable situations, such as the TC=+5 situation you mentioned, you will be betting big. You will identify them more frequently when tracking, so you will be betting big more frequently. Your EV will go up by a good amount, but your variance will also. If you are doing it right, the EV increase will be relatively more important than the variance increase, which means your SCORE will go up. You may or may not change your unit size. A bigger unit is not required in order to make more money tracking than straight counting. I haven't done any ST sims as I don't have CVShuffle, so I can't say for sure how the unit size is or isn't affected.

 

[rukus]

The biggest reason that the variance goes up is simply because the bets go up. When you identify profitable situations, such as the TC=+5 situation you mentioned, you will be betting big. You will identify them more frequently when tracking, so you will be betting big more frequently. Your EV will go up by a good amount, but your variance will also. If you are doing it right, the EV increase will be relatively more important than the variance increase, which means your SCORE will go up. You may or may not change your unit size. A bigger unit is not required in order to make more money tracking than straight counting. I haven't done any ST sims as I don't have CVShuffle, so I can't say for sure how the unit size is or isn't affected.

Ok i see the confusion now... When i was talking variance, i meant variance of a single hand at TC 5. Of course when STing, you will see more TC 5s and thus overall your variance definitely goes up. My comments were more curiosity about the variance of a single hand, and how it changes when STing (given that you have more precise info about where the high cards are) at those higher TCs not overall. Guess i could have clarified that better.

 

[Blue Efficacy]

The variance can be mitigated somewhat by the fact that a smaller spread will be allowed as you will be playing more frequently at an advantage.

Also let us not forget the massive gains in longevity with ST vs straight counting. I feast on a game that is a bona fide "counter trap" and have witnessed barrings in my very presence.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

The variance can be mitigated somewhat by the fact that a smaller spread will be allowed as you will be playing more frequently at an advantage.

Also let us not forget the massive gains in longevity with ST vs straight counting. I feast on a game that is a bona fide "counter trap" and have witnessed barrings in my very presence.

That's a big reason. You have to assume casinos don't know about anything other than counting. If they knew the shuffle was vulnerable (and how), they would change it. That's also why we don't talk about particular shuffles.

 

[aslan]

Seems to be out of stock/print.... along with 'Shuffle tracker's cookbook'...

Does his recent book 'Advanced Card Counting' contain any information on the subject?

Try the Gambler's Book Shop in Vegas. They have some hard to find books in stock. (Dead link: http://www.gamblersbook.com/home.php)

 

[laziboi]

Does ASM's kill Shuffle Tracking, I know that CSM's do, but how about ASM?

 

[Vytas]

If you can't see it, you can't track it.

 

[aslan]

If you can't see it, you can't track it.

I think the question might be, what are the chances of clumps of cards remaining intact, or at least, predictably scattered in some systematic manner?

 

[Sucker]

Does ASM's kill Shuffle Tracking, I know that CSM's do, but how about ASM?

Walk into a casino that uses ASMs and watch what happens when the shoe ends. In MOST places, the dealers are required to perform a quick shuffle or at least SOME sort of defensive maneuver with the cards, before placing them into the shuffling machine. This should provide you with at least a hint as to the answer to your question.