Sidecounting Aces

[Billy C1]

You're assuming that the only measure of horribleness is the [lack of] money-making potential.



I'm pretty sure what iCountNTrack is saying is that Hi-Opt I is horrible, because it makes you work a lot harder for only a slight increase in reward.

Or look at it the other way around: HiLo is great, because it is easy and yet delivers nearly the same return as Hi-Opt I with an ace side count.

Thank you for the interpretation. I wasn't trying to give him a bad time-----------I was just asking if he considered Hi-Lo to be "bad" because that's the way it came across to me.

BillyC1

 

[zengrifter]

I actually just adjusted that up prior to your post to 7%, based on sims. Incidentally, "whippersnapper" is a pretty derogatory term and seems kind of uncalled for.

Oh, Kewlman's got 7% now... do we hear 12%?

Okay, lets assume that we are playing a quality pene game with a healthy spread... 20% increase?

whippersnapper - :laugh:
A young and inexperienced person considered
to be presumptuous or overconfident​

I used it only as a term of endearment, truly. zg

 

[zengrifter]

there are 13 cards per suit. So if 13 cards have been played and you haven't seen an ace yet, you know that the deck is rich with one extra ace. But let's say that 13 cards have been played and 2 aces have come out. You now know that the deck is deficient by one ace.

Snyder says au contrair, its wholly insufficient. zg

See - Can Side Counting Make You a Super Card Counter?

 

[zengrifter]

You are a very smart young man, this is an opportunity for you to analyze all that is said here and come to your conclusions as how to handle the extra info received from the side count,,,,re-read my post and you will see there is more to be gained than the betting options alone.

Any Ace play adjustment in an Ace-reckoned count is of negligible value. zg

 

[Jack_Black]

Where the tactic falls apart is:

According to independent experts like Snyder and others, a simple 1/4D estimation of Ace density is not sufficient for bet precision. You may feel like you are doing it well, but the technique is not sufficiently accurate.

So you wind up, in the case of the 1/4D estimate approach, working harder to be where you already were with the Ace-reckoned count, and you'll tell others "I side-count the Aces and it works great," and so you perpetuate the myth of an antiquated system like HO1 trumping HiLo and how easy side-counting Aces is.

Let's say that we're playing a good DD game of 66% pen. 1 deck has been played out, but you haven't seen any aces yet. The TC is +1 and there is only 2-3 rounds left. are you going to bet flat still?

Or let's say that at the same game, a few minutes later, the TC rises to 10 with a deck played out, but you already saw 8 aces come out. Do you still feel comfortable putting out your max bet?

 

[kewljason]

Oh, Kewlman's got 7% now... do we hear 12%?

Okay, lets assume that we are playing a quality pene game with a healthy spread... 20% increase?

whippersnapper - :laugh:
A young and inexperienced person considered
to be presumptuous or overconfident​

I used it only as a term of endearment, truly. zg

Webster's defines whippersnapper as a diminutive, insignificant person. But I will except your explanation of useage.

If your point is that additional indices are more valuable in a double deck game, especially deeply dealt game, you get no argument from me. My results just don't show a 20% increase that you are talking about. I suppose if you want to cherry pick a situation or game like a deeply dealt doubledeck game with good rules, using a healthy spread, the addition of 40 indices would lead to a greater advantage than I am concluding, but for the more realistic double deck that I encounter regularly, simulations show the increased advantage to be considerably less than 20%.

 

[zengrifter]

Webster's defines whippersnapper as a diminutive, insignificant person. But I will except your explanation of useage.

I hadn't checked the definition when I said it.
I just know the word as something that old farts use on youngsters. zg

 

[kewljason]

I hadn't checked the definition when I said it.
I just know the word as something that old farts use on youngsters. zg

I didn't either. I had to look it up. Are you an "old fart"?

 

[zengrifter]

Let's say that we're playing a good DD game of 66% pen. 1 deck has been played out, but you haven't seen any aces yet. The TC is +1 and there is only 2-3 rounds left. are you going to bet flat still?

Why would I not increase the bet - even without extra aces the deck is +EV.

Or let's say that at the same game, a few minutes later, the TC rises to 10 with a deck played out, but you already saw 8 aces come out. Do you still feel comfortable putting out your max bet?

Trick question? +10 -4 = +6... subtract some subject value, say -2... = +4 or more.
+4 is a max bet where I come from. zg

 

[zengrifter]

I didn't either. I had to look it up. Are you an "old fart"?

I am, only if you are a young whipersnapper... a "kewl one" at that. zg

 

[zengrifter]

I suppose if you want to cherry pick a situation or game like a deeply dealt doubledeck game with good rules, using a healthy spread, the addition of 40 indices would lead to a greater advantage than I am concluding, but for the more realistic double deck that I encounter regularly, simulations show the increased advantage to be considerably less than 20%.

Maybe I am conceptualizing, based on greater spread?
I don't know... I'm just going by what I said in ZGI page 5... no one
ever challenged it. I do believe that its closer to 20% than 7%.

What sort of spread do you use at 2D? zg

 

[Automatic Monkey]

No, they are not really watching this for normal BRs, and since the big bets are made in
negative as often as positive counts, it may serve to alleviate house suspicions somewhat.

As for shuffling more, you'd be surprised how cohesive the Ace and its keycard remain. zg

See - Excerpts from Barfarkel's Spring Trip Report

DD sequencing is pretty easy to research, just get two decks of cards and try it. A riffle that is either very good or very bad is what I look for. On my next LV trip I'm planning on hammering the 6:5 SD around town, and sequencing will be a part of that but I don't specifically recall seeing any SD in LV that wasn't machine shuffled.

And I agree that "whippersnapper" is uncalled for. The correct terminology is either "whip her snapper" or "zippersnapper," depending on whether you don't ask or you don't tell. :devil:

 

[aslan]

I am, only if you are a young whipersnapper... a "kewl one" at that. zg

I am wondering what the effect on EV is if 8 aces are dealt and the count is +10. Obviously, no naturals are possible, but it also would seem that a +10 count would be diminished without the possibility of A/2, A/3, A/4, A/5, A/6, A/7, A/8 (all of them double down possibilities), and A/A, as well. Also, there is no chance of receiving an Ace on a double down 8, 9, or 10.

Let the record show that kewl whippersnappers are mutually inclusive with old farts. Apparently, you cannot have one without the other.

 

[zengrifter]

The partial trade-off in a higher plus count bereft of Aces is increased
dealer bust, so its still a max bet time, in the instant example(s) given. zg

Let's say that we're playing a good DD game of 66% pen. 1 deck has been played out, but you haven't seen any aces yet. The TC is +1 and there is only 2-3 rounds left. are you going to bet flat still?

Or let's say that at the same game, a few minutes later, the TC rises to 10 with a deck played out, but you already saw 8 aces come out. Do you still feel comfortable putting out your max bet?

 

[Jack_Black]

Trick question? +10 -4 = +6... subtract some subject value, say -2... = +4 or more.
+4 is a max bet where I come from. zg

??? I said 8 aces came out. So subtract 8 from the TC.

 

[Jack_Black]

I am wondering what the effect on EV is if 8 aces are dealt and the count is +10. Obviously, no naturals are possible, but it also would seem that a +10 count would be diminished without the possibility of A/2, A/3, A/4, A/5, A/6, A/7, A/8 (all of them double down possibilities), and A/A, as well. Also, there is no chance of receiving an Ace on a double down 8, 9, or 10.

Let the record show that kewl whippersnappers are mutually inclusive with old farts. Apparently, you cannot have one without the other.

Now that I think about it, I guess it isn't that bad. the difference between hi opt 2 W or W/O ASC is 10 SCORE points.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Now that I think about it, I guess it isn't that bad. the difference between hi opt 2 W or W/O ASC is 10 SCORE points.

It's also significantly dependent on rules. S17, RSA, DAS, DOA, and LS all increase the value of the ace relative to the player. In a H17 game with all the rest of the bad rules, I wouldn't miss those aces much at all.

 

[aslan]

It's also significantly dependent on rules. S17, RSA, DAS, DOA, and LS all increase the value of the ace relative to the player. In a H17 game with all the rest of the bad rules, I wouldn't miss those aces much at all.

Good point, along with what you said about the increased risk of dealer bust.

 

[Thunder]

So going back to Aslan's question, let's say you were playing a 75% pen 6 deck S17 AC game.

How much higher would your EV be at say a TC of +1 if the running count was +5 with 5 decks remaining but you knew that only 2 aces had been used so far vs. 3 aces being used thus far? Aces are unquestionably more important than 10's.

 

[Jack_Black]

It's also significantly dependent on rules. S17, RSA, DAS, DOA, and LS all increase the value of the ace relative to the player. In a H17 game with all the rest of the bad rules, I wouldn't miss those aces much at all.

Interestingly, doing a quick calculation on CVCX shows that even on the worst game without the Ace dependent good rules, it still shows a difference of 8 SCORE points between ASC and no ASC. This must come from the fact of how powerful 3:2 payout is for the player, and that increasing your bet based on ace richness and/or high TC is still helpful. Not to mention just having the ace as one of your first 2 cards gives you an estimated 52% advantage.

but if you were to play the dream game with every good ACE rule, the difference spreads to 17 points.