Simmy McSimmerton

[MeWin$]

This is my first post here and unlike most I dont want to start off by asking a stupid or cocky question, so in that vein what are my chances of winning a million dollars in a month with my 5 dollar bankroll? 95 percent? Is my RoR too big? Assuming I win my first hand, or course. :grin:
But Seriously ive been reading for a while here and I try to listen to my favorite posters; Kewljason, sagefrog, automatic monkey, blackchipjim, creeping panther, shadroch, aslan, Flash1296 and others who contribute so much and so well; so thank you and i hope to correspond too.

Can anyone run a sim for me? My CVCX only goes to 1.5D Pen on 4d but I need it to do 2D Pen out of 4. Its 4D ES10 H17 DAS DA2 BJ Dealer Peek.

TC < 1 = 1 x 25
TC 1 = 2 x 100
TC 2 = 2 x 200
TC 3 = 2 x 300
TC > 4 = 2 x 500

Wondering hourly win rate, SCORE, RoR for 50k bank, and Hourly SD
They think theyre invincible because its all half shoes but Im guessing its a beatable, albeit fairly weak, game.

Have a great night

 

[Dyepaintball12]

Which Count are you using?

Hmm yeah CVCX only lets me do 2.5 out of 4 too!

 

[1357111317]

since your new and can't PM where is this game located? Rough area woudl do rather than an actual city.

 

[MeWin$]

Ha! :laugh:

Im using Hi-lo w/full indices but the rough area is on a planet somewhere, probably Earth :grin:

No offense but I put in a lot of work scouting

 

[assume_R]

I can run the numbers for you, but I need to know a few things:

1. Playall or wong out at a certain negative count? (playall is easier to calculate)
2. How do you calculate the TC? (full or half or quarter-deck resolution, and flooring or rounding)
3. Heads up with with other players at the table? (on average, how many people are at the table with you)

I'll give you the numbers for the spread you listed as well as tell you the optimal spread for $25 - $500 (i.e. the optimal amount to bet at each count).

Oh, and welcome to bjinfo!

 

[MeWin$]

Thank you

Play all, quarter deck resolution, rounded and heads up.

The numbers and the optimal spread will be so useful.

Thank you again, and good variance to you! :laugh:

 

[moo321]

since your new and can't PM where is this game located? Rough area woudl do rather than an actual city.

Heh.


Anyways, even with crummy-ish pen, the ES10 helps a good deal.

 

[assume_R]

sorry been busy - i'll run the numbers for you tomorrow. stay tuned!

 

[assume_R]

Simulation Results

Your bets are close enough to optimal. It's tough knowing the optimal bet at 2 hands, at least until I get cvdata5. Also, that ES10 jumped your score from about 9 to about 30. RoR for $50k (2000 units) = 9.69%

 

[FLASH1296]

This was with 50% pen‘ ?

 

[assume_R]

This was with 50% pen‘ ?

Yup, the following sim:

• 1 billion rounds
• 4D
• 50% pen (fixed cut card)
• H17
• nRSA
• DAS
• DOA
• Peak on Ace
• ES10
• HiLo w/ full indices
• TC rounding (not flooring)
• Quarter deck resolution
• playall
• The spread he listed in his first post
• Using cvdata4.

Someone else can also run the same sim to confirm.

 

[MeWin$]

Thanks for the excellent sim!

So that's for two hands when its a positive count right?

Anytime I can return the favor just PM me !

 

[assume_R]

Thanks for the excellent sim!

So that's for two hands when its a positive count right?

Anytime I can return the favor just PM me !

No problem, man. Yeah spreading from 1x$25 to 2x$500, with exactly the spread you listed in your first post. Enjoy!

 

[FLASH1296]

Yeah … $25 to $1,000 can overcome 50% pen on a good game.

 

[Finn Dog]

TC < 1 = 1 x 25
TC 1 = 2 x 100
TC 2 = 2 x 200
TC 3 = 2 x 300
TC > 4 = 2 x 500

MeWin$:

Purple action with a 1 to 40 spread is above the sweat level of most casinos.

Other red flags would be:

• Your radical drop from $200 to $25--many gamblers typically drop in 50% increments.
  
• Spreading from one to two hands: a safer strategy would be to open with two hands and drop to one hand at a predetermined TC.

If you do attempt this, you'd be well advised to keep your sessions short and/or backcount.

Regards,

FD

 

[MeWin$]

I hear ya, man. But this place is a little nutso, they've never backed off (to my knowledge) anyone, ever. Why should they? The usual tables are 200d max and with 50% pen combined with Sloooooooooow dealing, and without getting into specifics, slow and drunk patrons, 50 hands and hour is the max one could get. Theyve stopped looking for counters years ago.
Meaning with perfect play, on any other table the max anyone could is around 30 to 40 an hour. Pretty good BUT this place is literally hundreds of miles from the nearest town, think a waystation in a desert. So if someone whos that skilled and rolled really would be better off going somewhere else. And in fact ive seen a couple semi-skilled counters playing a weak game but thats about it.
Meaning, the official pit line is CCing does not exist for them. I can get a private table and play until i hit a patch of positive variance and then theyll turf me, but at 130 hr EV, why not make the 6hr drive?
Im anon with an act, if they ban me, i just stay away for a long while w/e.


Ill post how it goes, PS thanks for the concern and your advice is good and worth thinking a lot about.

Peace,

 

[aslan]

Ha! :laugh:

Im using Hi-lo w/full indices but the rough area is on a planet somewhere, probably Earth :grin:

No offense but I put in a lot of work scouting

Eastern or Western hemisphere?

 

[MeWin$]

lol, definitely :grin: