ericfarmer said:
Hmmm. Thanks for running this, because I get slightly different results, so the more sanity checking, the better. I can reproduce your results for SPL1 and SPL2, but for SPL3 I get an EV for splitting of 247/198 = 1.247474. I get this value both with my strategy.exe calculator, where it is "actually" analyzing blackjack, as well as with my faked-up Mathematica implementation of the no-hit showdown game that I described earlier.
Following is my breakdown of the splitting outcomes for each of the 27,720 arrangements of the cards in the shoe (after removing the initial pair and dealer up card):
I'm not sure where the problem is yet. I am assuming that the player always resplits whenever possible; maybe that is the cause of the difference? If it is helpful for comparison, I can pm a zipfile with the actual shoe arrangements and my itemization of the outcomes.
Following is my breakdown of the splitting outcomes for each of the 27,720 arrangements of the cards in the shoe (after removing the initial pair and dealer up card):
Code:
p_-4 = 25/27720 = 0.000901876
p_-3 = 280/27720 = 0.010101
p_-2 = 1660/27720 = 0.0598846
p_-1 = 1680/27720 = 0.0606061
p_0 = 5105/27720 = 0.184163
p_1 = 4930/27720 = 0.17785
p_2 = 8764/27720 = 0.316162
p_3 = 3042/27720 = 0.10974
p_4 = 2234/27720 = 0.0805916
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