Sagefr0g's post:
if i may digress a bit regarding some games other than blackjack.
no argument sir. but asking for your opinion far as the scenario below:
the other night, i was about spot on far as EV for my typical daily session. i was happy with that. i’m about to leave for the day, when a play presented on a different game (that has generally half the ev and twice the variance) of the games i’d been playing but it was in it’s ‘highest’ state of advantage. i figured i’d likely lose half of what i’d made (or worse) for the day on the plays if things didn’t go so ‘stellar’, however if things went really well, then i’d leave singing to the bank, sorta thing. i passed the play up, took my EV home with me. i should add that currently the revenue realized has more significance with respect to utility than it normally does.
did i mess up, in your opinion?
Generally, you definitely messed up mathematically. But in a practical sense you said you needed that win to pay for things in your life. You have to balance mathematical theory with real life needs. You obviously weighed that and I can't argue with the decision. I probably would have risked half my win for a solid plus EV play but that is not set in stone. Now if you were talking about something that would have taken my day well into the negative I would give more consideration to passing it up. But that would depend on how my trip had been going or some other long term metric. The safe play is to ignore the math and lock in the win if you really need the win. It is also the wrong play mathematically.
It depends on how you do your accounting. The way KJ defined his method of breaking his BR annually, you would always follow the math. By the time you are breaking your bank you should be so far ahead that there should be no consideration besides the math. If you know you are about to break your bank to pay a lot of bills and would like to be certain you have at least a certain amount, then you may want to play it safe and forgot the opportunity if it could cause you to drop below that amount. You have to balance the math with the practical needs for your life.
I have had to make similar decisions with machine play opportunities. Sometimes I go against the math, but usually I am not in that position. I don't baby sit machines so I usually don't hit the really juicy opportunities often. I just keep my eyes open in my travels through the casino. I found one that was about to payout 5 figures. After waiting a while to step in and win, it became clear the couple on the machine were going to play it until it hit. I figure less than $5K coin in would have hit the big payout so there was at least $5K profit to whoever played until it hit at that point, and probably a lot more. I stopped by a little bit later, when I thought it would be close to hitting, and saw them hit the big payout. Oh well, I tried. I would have baby sat that machine but it was clear they weren't going anywhere until they hit it and a strong play awaited elsewhere. I don't play the shared jackpots among a bank of machines much, which sounds like what you were describing. I like to know I am going to win it when I start the final run toward the amount it must hit by.
. Second, there is no Nobel Prize in mathematics