Splitting 10s
- Thread starter paymypush
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I think I can help you out. How many times do you get to split TT. The count +5 or larger comes about 2.75% for HILO at 6 deck 4.5 pen. You are more likely to get TT but the 5s and 6s are depleted. So 11 hands out of 400 hands you will have a count that allows the splitting of tens. You would be lucky if one of the 11 is a split tens opportunity vs 5 or 6 (1.454% *2.75% = .04%, once every 2500 hands you get the opportunity). How much impact on EV do you expect. 0.40/12.7 = 3.15% increase in EV/100 hands. For such a rare event that is a pretty big impact.
I rarely split 10's myself. The count has to be monster, for me to consider it, usually significantly above the index number for the play and has to be near the end of the shoe (which a count that high usually is). I would then exit at the shuffle.
Splitting 10's is a strong play at the right count, but the heat it can generate outweights that for me as I am concerned with longevity.
A factor rarely mentioned in various discussions about splitting 10's is that splitting tens eats up at least 2, sometimes 3 or 4 extra cards. Even more in the case of re-splits. Not splitting tens will lead to an extra round at a very high count if you are playing heads up and can lead to an extra round at that very high count if you are playing with 1 or even 2 other players. I think the EV of such an extra round at a high count is often overlooked in the discussion, meaning that extra round can offset some of the EV you are giving up by not splitting.
Splitting 10's is a strong play at the right count, but the heat it can generate outweights that for me as I am concerned with longevity.
A factor rarely mentioned in various discussions about splitting 10's is that splitting tens eats up at least 2, sometimes 3 or 4 extra cards. Even more in the case of re-splits. Not splitting tens will lead to an extra round at a very high count if you are playing heads up and can lead to an extra round at that very high count if you are playing with 1 or even 2 other players. I think the EV of such an extra round at a high count is often overlooked in the discussion, meaning that extra round can offset some of the EV you are giving up by not splitting.
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I think that splitting tens at =>TC+4/5 is a +EV move, but a more interesting question is how many times do you do it - if you split tens and end up with two paired hands that both total twenty, do you stand on these with the probability you'll be paid out on both, or split again with the prospect that you'll be depending on the dealer busting out in order to be paid - and after you've already eaten two of the "additional" tens in the shoe?.
Intuition might say you are just begging to land a small card on one or more of those tens if you keep splitting, but intuition is wrong. So long as the count is +5 or higher your expectation of a ten or ace still outweighs the chance of a small card, and don't forget, the small card, if it comes, is still in contention since the dealer will still have to draw to his 5 or 6 upcard (unless he has an ace in the hole).
I share kj's opinion that it is a play that is damaging to longevity, even for players like him who play hit and run. Nothing sticks in the minds of pit people like "that guy who splits tens," especially if he resplits them as well and with large money out. If you do so, I'd keep visits few and far between.
I share kj's opinion that it is a play that is damaging to longevity, even for players like him who play hit and run. Nothing sticks in the minds of pit people like "that guy who splits tens," especially if he resplits them as well and with large money out. If you do so, I'd keep visits few and far between.
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no, let me help you out...try re-reading my post again really, really, SLOWLY all 20 some words and you will see my comment is regarding a sim suggesting it is basically a neutral play...your reading comp skills are, by far, the worst on the board
and thanks for confirming how easily it can be exploited
and thanks for confirming how easily it can be exploited
I explained why. You only get the opportunity about 1 in 2500 hands. Divide the increase in EV by 25 to get the increase/100 hands or 0.4*25 = $10 or 0.4 units per opportunity. That is signficant /opportunity but only 40 cents or 0.016 units per hour increase. I hope by explaining it in more detail you understood it this time. I don't think that the opportunity should be dismissed when it comes but if you choose to pass because of the heat generated you will hardly notice a change in long term results. Think about the illustrious 18. The plays are not that powerful but they are very frequent. The 2 infrequent ones are the splitting of tens which means they are powerful on the rare occasions that they occur. I hope that helps.
You talk about 1 in 2500 hands as though it is a rare event, tthree. I have logged over 90,000 hands in each of the last 2 years. Going by your numbers that would be 36 times a year I would have the opportunity to split 10's vs 5,6 at the proper count. That is 3 times a month. Now I am only a mid level player, but each and every one of these opportunities I would have my top wager of mid to upper black out. That is inviting a lot of trouble. Too much trouble for my liking. I'll give up some EV for longevity.
And in the long run, I wonder just how much EV, I am really giving up.
As I stated earlier, not splitting ten value cards will probably result in an extra round for me most times. Maybe 2 rounds if you consider re-splits and the cards that are eaten. And this is an extra round or two at a high count with my top wager out. Add to this equation that splitting ten value cards 36 times a year would probably lead to at least a few backoffs that I might otherwise not get. The loss of a handful of stores, even temporarily while things cool off or even a partial loss of one shift, can mean the loss of EV. Oh I will probably still play the same number of hands, but I may have to play at an inferior store under worse rules and conditions resulting in less EV, so that too is some hidden loss of EV that goes into my equation. In the end, I have no way to add all these intangibles up and figure out just what not splitting 10 value cards is costing, but I think it is a lot less than it initially appears by simulation, and I am willing to pay that price.
This is a prime example of something that I have been saying for a long time. While simulations are a great tool, they don't always tell the whole story.
And in the long run, I wonder just how much EV, I am really giving up.
As I stated earlier, not splitting ten value cards will probably result in an extra round for me most times. Maybe 2 rounds if you consider re-splits and the cards that are eaten. And this is an extra round or two at a high count with my top wager out. Add to this equation that splitting ten value cards 36 times a year would probably lead to at least a few backoffs that I might otherwise not get. The loss of a handful of stores, even temporarily while things cool off or even a partial loss of one shift, can mean the loss of EV. Oh I will probably still play the same number of hands, but I may have to play at an inferior store under worse rules and conditions resulting in less EV, so that too is some hidden loss of EV that goes into my equation. In the end, I have no way to add all these intangibles up and figure out just what not splitting 10 value cards is costing, but I think it is a lot less than it initially appears by simulation, and I am willing to pay that price. This is a prime example of something that I have been saying for a long time. While simulations are a great tool, they don't always tell the whole story.
Quite . . . but, re-splitting both hands would mean another two max bet going out and if you use Hi-Lo you could end up copping one of the uncounted 7,8,9s in the deck - as could the dealer who might draw a combo of these cards to hit 20 or 21, so there's the increased variance issue to think about - Aslan has mentioned intuition, but this is more about risk management me thinks.
Is it then one of those cases where you set the maths aside and, in this case, settle for your potential two max bets wins (not re-splitting), or play to the maths (as I'm sure the maths purests, who contend you should never set the maths aside, would advise) and run the risk of potentially losing four max bets instead of just two if you hit crap cards second time round and the house hits 20 or 21?
As a casual player, if it ever happens (I've never had occasion to split tens yet) I think I'll stand on my two twenties, and leave the rest of the additional tens in the shoe for the dealer to cop.
Is it then one of those cases where you set the maths aside and, in this case, settle for your potential two max bets wins (not re-splitting), or play to the maths (as I'm sure the maths purests, who contend you should never set the maths aside, would advise) and run the risk of potentially losing four max bets instead of just two if you hit crap cards second time round and the house hits 20 or 21?
As a casual player, if it ever happens (I've never had occasion to split tens yet) I think I'll stand on my two twenties, and leave the rest of the additional tens in the shoe for the dealer to cop.
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If You are talking about risk aversion yes. If you are talking about maximising your EV- I would split until the the count dictated I should stop.
Potentially the dealer could still get a 21 in any case, risk averse or not.
High Counts are rare and if I have the choice I would rather maximise my EV and go for it. Its not like there are high levels of heat in the UK while splitting tens. Most dealers see it as a ploppy play- and I`ve never had any heat on it whatsoever- yet.
Furthermore by estimating decks by half and not full decks will further increase your accuracy when confronted by this play and others.
Even if I lose these maximum bets - I know I`m putting out the money when I need to and thats all that counts for me. They key is bankroll. Having a sufficient bankroll lets you roll with the losses and wins. You will have less dramatic swings by playing risk averse, and there are times and places for it.
Potentially the dealer could still get a 21 in any case, risk averse or not.
High Counts are rare and if I have the choice I would rather maximise my EV and go for it. Its not like there are high levels of heat in the UK while splitting tens. Most dealers see it as a ploppy play- and I`ve never had any heat on it whatsoever- yet.
Furthermore by estimating decks by half and not full decks will further increase your accuracy when confronted by this play and others.
Even if I lose these maximum bets - I know I`m putting out the money when I need to and thats all that counts for me. They key is bankroll. Having a sufficient bankroll lets you roll with the losses and wins. You will have less dramatic swings by playing risk averse, and there are times and places for it.
The whole splitting tens thing is way overblown.
Can anyone on here point to a situation where they got a backoff simply due to splitting tens? Not the time you were playing the Spaniard and the floor was watching, and finally backed you off when you split tens. But a clean game that got sweaty when you split tens?
Can anyone on here point to a situation where they got a backoff simply due to splitting tens? Not the time you were playing the Spaniard and the floor was watching, and finally backed you off when you split tens. But a clean game that got sweaty when you split tens?