Strategy for the Short Run?

[aslan]

Hypothetical

You have one week to live and you want to play blackjack seven hours each day. The reason is that you would like to leave your newly born grandson a gift but only have $5,000, which you promised to give to your granddaughter before your grandson was born. You would rather leave nothing than leave only one child an inheritance, and you do not want to give anything to either before your death (because in the unlikely event you live, you will need the $5,000 yourself).

Using a level 1 count, what is the best strategy at blackjack that you could use to earn--
10% more?
25% more?
50% more?
75% more?
100% more?

Naturally, you would like to leave your grandson 100% more, but you still want to keep your risk of ruin as low as possible, hopefully less than 40%. Is there any reasonable hope at any level? What would be your respective RoRs?

You may determine that there is no reasonable strategy for the short run. That is okay, too. But please explain why.

 

[ningtong88]

I would rather play baccarat then, find a hot table, go all in on the banker, go all in and let her ride for 3 hands, if you win then you are all set 40k less comm. Dont get me wrong, I love blackjack and I have been counting for the past 3 months for total about 200 hours, but variance is a bitch. I believe I will earn money in the long run but you only have one week... having one week playing 7 hrs aday is gambling no matter what count system you use.

 

[Sonny]

I would not count cards. With only 49 hours to play you simply won't have a realistic probability of success. The tiny edge from card counting just isn't going to materialize in so short a time. I would desperately look for any stronger opportunity I could find - match plays, promotions, weak dealers, weak shuffles, weak procedures, weak equipment, other games, anything. Unfortunately that all takes time that you don't have much of, but scouting sure beats gambling.

-Sonny-

 

[kewljason]

Shouldn't be attempted. Because of the time limitations it is nothing more than gambling. As AP's we have an advantage over the long run, but as you well know anything can and will happen over the short run. So be prepared to lose all or part of that 5 grand which you have already promised.

 

[johnnyb]

Hypothetical

You have one week to live and you want to play blackjack seven hours each day. The reason is that you would like to leave your newly born grandson a gift but only have $5,000, which you promised to give to your granddaughter before your grandson was born. You would rather leave nothing than leave only one child an inheritance, and you do not want to give anything to either before your death (because in the unlikely event you live, you will need the $5,000 yourself).

Using a level 1 count, what is the best strategy at blackjack that you could use to earn--
10% more?
25% more?
50% more?
75% more?
100% more?

Naturally, you would like to leave your grandson 100% more, but you still want to keep your risk of ruin as low as possible, hopefully less than 40%. Is there any reasonable hope at any level? What would be your respective RoRs?

You may determine that there is no reasonable strategy for the short run. That is okay, too. But please explain why.

Anything is a possibility, but it's also unlikely. If you play exactly 7 hours a day for 7 days, that's only 49 hours total, which you obviously know happens to be a very slim amount of playing time.

However, if you were playing $5 minimum tables and somehow managed to find a hot shoe every time you left a table, then your chances of reaching your goal would certainly be better in such a short playing period.

 

[blackjack avenger]

double or bust?

Resplit to 3 hands game.

Split bank into 1/7 wait till TC 3

Bet and resize constantly

Once u get to the final minutes, then a 3 step martingale as London first wrote below.

The combo plan gives u a chance to let the limited time work for you before max boldness.

Of course any plan will most likely fail.

 

[Southpaw]

Straight martingale anyone?

Spaw

 

[London Colin]

Assuming no better opportunities can be found, then ...

This is the only sort of scenario for which progressions actually are useful. If you want to make 100% more then just bet it all, but if you are willing to settle for less, then a progression improves your chances of getting there.

It's something that comes up in certain tournament scenarios: achieve your goal or bust out trying.


There are better games than blackjack to apply this to, but for blackjack ...

With a three-step progression (with no doubling or splitting) you have an 86% chance of success.

Three steps means starting with a bet of 1/7 of your bankroll, which is the amount you stand to win unless you get a natural. So that would be 14.3%.

Two steps has a 73% chance of success, success being a 33.3% return.

One step (i.e. bet it all) is of course more likely to be a loser, with a 48% chance of success.

I suppose you might as well wait for a high count before commencing, but I don't think it will change the numbers much. (Or maybe a count of tens and aces, in order to track the probability of a natural, would be the most effective, since you won't be doubling or splitting anyway.)

 

[London Colin]

Straight martingale anyone?

Spaw

Indeed. Beat me to it.

 

[blackjack avenger]

time

I thought of the 1 hand or martingales, but we do have some time.

This may be interesting.
Start at Kelly resizing or double Kelly
As time passes get more aggressive
Last minute martingale if goal not reached.

Given some time I think I like my first post. I added London's idea to my first post, see above.

 

[kewljason]

Gambling degenerates! That's what I see so far from this thread.

How about this. Instead of spending 49 of your last 168 hours in a casino with strangers, gambling, how about you spend that time with those two grandchildren. Use part of that money to do some fun and quality things in that time that will create a lasting memory for them. That will be far more valuable to them than leaving them a few bucks. Especially in years to come.

 

[blackjack avenger]

joking

Gambling degenerates! That's what I see so far from this thread.

How about this. Instead of spending 49 of your last 168 hours in a casino with strangers, gambling, how about you spend that time with those two grandchildren. Use part of that money to do some fun and quality things in that time that will create a lasting memory for them. That will be far more valuable to them than leaving them a few bucks. Especially in years to come.

Man up hippie

We were trying to stay within the bounds of the ?

Hippie
Still joking

But looking deeper ur right
However
Why do u need money for lasting memories
Ok
Now I am:cry:
The avenger now needs to man up.

 

[kewljason]

Man up hippie

We were trying to stay within the bounds of the ?

Hippie
Still joking

But looking deeper ur right
However
Why do u need money for lasting memories
Ok
Now I am:cry:
The avenger now needs to man up.

hippie. :laugh:

I also am staying within the bounds of the initial post. It says the guy has a week to live! If you just want to consider the mathematics, well, then he should have said that, but with a week to live....stay out of the casino and spend time with loved ones.

And as for the mathematics only, well unless you are considering advanced methods as sonny sugested, everything else...everything is just gambling with a short time constraint.

Good. You should cry. you should feel bad. Spend time with loved ones.

As for why you need money to create lasting memories, you don't of course. Without knowing details like ages and such, wouldn't a nice trip to the zoo or an amusment park, or ball game or maybe a museum if the grandkids were older, be a better memory? This is assuming health permits, but if healthy enough to spend 49 hours in a casino...well then. :laugh:

 

[zengrifter]

How about this. Instead of spending 49 of your last 168 hours in a casino with strangers, gambling, how about you spend that time with those two grandchildren.

That wouldn't work because he wants to leave something of lasting value! z:laugh:g

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

Sticking with the original question, I think a standard Martingale will most likely present you with the greatest chance of a short-term profit. If it were me though (and I was for some reason banished to the casinos for my last week of living), it shouldn't be too difficult to find an extremely strong game that I can play for at least 2 full shifts, presenting a greater chance of immediate profit than a Martingale. Trying to count your way to profits with 7 days to live would be an insult to your grandchildren!

 

[Sucker]

Buy a gun; rob as many convenience stores as possible for the next 7 days. After every job, stash your "winnings" in a safe place known only to you and your grandchildren (or perhaps their parents, if you think you can trust them). If you're good at it, you should be able to make it for a WEEK before getting caught. If one of the clerks has his OWN gun under the counter, pulls it out & kills you; no big deal! :laugh:

 

[aslan]

Gambling degenerates! That's what I see so far from this thread.

How about this. Instead of spending 49 of your last 168 hours in a casino with strangers, gambling, how about you spend that time with those two grandchildren. Use part of that money to do some fun and quality things in that time that will create a lasting memory for them. That will be far more valuable to them than leaving them a few bucks. Especially in years to come.

:laugh:

But that's what I plan to do for the full six months preceding the last week. By then my grandchildren will be sick of my face. :laugh: Hey, man! This is a hypothetical. The story was just to give a reason for wanting to play the short run. Even it there was a 49% RoR, that's slightly favored to come out with some cash left. For example, what if you only bet when you had a 5% advantage (wonging in at +10 TC) and bet $500 or whatever, that would be better than nothing given the scenario. You may only have a 5% edge, but you'd have ten shots at it, or whatever. How many shots do you need to make it a viable risk considering you're going for the short run?

 

[aslan]

Since many of you are not sticking to the mathematical problem, maybe I should stipulate that if you fail and go broke, your original $5,000 will be restored and your granddaughter will get it all as promised. So then the problem becomes your last ditch effort to create a profit for your grandson to inherit starting with $5,000 and preferably playing blackjack with no special skills other than card counting. Anyone? I can't believe my best shot would be to wait for a +4 count and just bet it all at one time.

 

[tallmanvegas]

Ut oh, someone going to the dark side

 

[jerseyshop101]

I was going to ask a somewhat similar question, as a friend (who has no interest in CC, mainly because he only goes to the casino once every couple years) had asked me how he should ramp his blackjack bets. Since he said he was only willing to lose a small set amount, I told him to just flat bet the minimum, to reduce the chance that he would bust out in the first hour there.