Successful, Conservative Play

#21
System - No System, Count - No Count

I keep in my head something like negative, very negative, normal, positive, very positive. I can quickly scan the cards and determine what the current round is, and I combine that with the previous rounds to come up with an overall "count". You could say I use the "feels like" method, although I think I would be pretty close if I were to guess the count at any given point.

If I lose track or am not sure I just ride my minimum bet out until the shuffle.

One thing I use liberally is geting up from the table. In double deck games I can fairly accurately estimate the cost of countinuing - this probably sounds like pure bunk but it is true. Some times I say to myself - "It might cost $300 to ride this one out". In such a situation I usually leave though I might stay if the cards had been running particularly good (already up over $1,500).

I believe a lot of my success has to do with playing only slight house advantage situations and any player advantage situations. My "advantage" may exist purely from refusing to play negative situations. Many recognized systems have people playing through negatives. I find it ironic that they will tell people not to play 6:5 blackjack or other non favorable rules, but will have the player conitnue in play with a count which may produce a similar disadvantage.

One week I had 2 day trips which lasted less than 1/2 hour each. First one I won $1,250 in 20 minutes, on the other $2,200 in about 1/2 hour. Left the casino immediately after each of these wins.

Frequently I take a break, at $100 tables I may get up with a win as low as $150, only to come back to the same table in 1/2 hour.

I have my own cutting strategy which I won't post here because it can't be supported mathmatically, but it does seem to work for me. A 10 year old could do it - very simple.

I often leave when another player is playing foolishly. I don't believe it effects my chances of a winning or losing a hand, but i do believe it ruins my concentration.

Ocassionally I will up my bet at the bottom of my bankroll. Say I start my play with $1,000 and I get down to $200 or less I go "all-in" if the "count" is positive. I would rather take a shot at getting back to $400 than ride the bottom too long. I know this contradicts my statement that my range is $100 to $150, but I consider this a special situation.

If I need more of a blackjack "fix" and I've already won, I go and play the $10 tables where my risk of losing a $1,000 or more is pracitically nill. Basically I use the $100 tables to win and the $10 tables to relax and enjoy the game.

That's all I can think of in my playing style.

My start at the $100 tables was mostly chance. I was there with a friend who was there for his birthday. In his honor I decided to try $1000 at the $100 table - won $1,200. The next week I stopped at the $100 table on my way out of the casino (had been playing the $10 tables) - won $900. On the following trip I went right to the $100 table - won $2,300. From there I was soon over $10,000 total.

I had my total up over $14,000 before my birthday, got a little crazy on my birthday and dropped a lot. the world is unfair!

At one point I was up $18,000 and lost back-to-back $3,000 sessions. One session I lost $3,000 in under 45 minutes, never got up from table when I should have. After this I took a month off from playing and reduced my session bankroll to $2,000. When my play resumed I won 17 straight sessions and got my total back up past the $25,000 mark. Had some ups and downs since but am currently beyond this point. Reached a new high within the last week.

I'm now trying to keep my play tight in getting up from losing situations and cashing in frequently on positive ones.

One other note - I started with a bankroll of $200 three years ago. I won $300 on my first trip and have been in a positive overall poisiton ever since. Beside the one month break above I took six months off after dropping my total from $8,500 back to about $7,000 on the $10 tables. I stopped both of these times because I was not playing smart - either over confident or just sloppy.

Current total over $33,000, haven't changed anything. Better to be a dumb winner than a smart loser!

-Buzzer
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#22
Even though you’re not accurately counting, I have to admit that you are doing a lot of things right. Your system is based on smart ideas that will, to some degree, work in your favor.

Buzzer said:
One thing I use liberally is geting up from the table…I believe a lot of my success has to do with playing only slight house advantage situations and any player advantage situations. My "advantage" may exist purely from refusing to play negative situations.
That is definitely a huge factor. By avoiding negative situations you could use any system and come out a winner. The fact that you’re increasing your bets with a system that (at least somewhat) correlates to the count means that you are in better shape than most players.

Buzzer said:
I find it ironic that they will tell people not to play 6:5 blackjack or other non favorable rules, but will have the player conitnue in play with a count which may produce a similar disadvantage.
I’ve noticed that too. People will warn others about the high house edge of 6:5 BJ but will then play through counts of –3 or more. Essentially it is the same thing! I agree that walking away from negative counts (we call it Wonging) can be the biggest factor in a player’s success.

My only concern is about your bet sizing. The fluctuations in BJ can be huge. You have a nice bankroll at this point but just be sure not to get carried away with your bets. Even a perfect player can go broke if they overbet their bankroll. Just be aware that your results will often be wild in either directions.

-Sonny-
 

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#23
I would suspect that it would be easier for a non-precise count to do better in something like a double deck gain, where any fluctuations would be more readily visible, and shorter duration.

Also if you're wonging during a double deck game... that's pretty ballsy, right? :)
 
#24
Hey guys,

First time post for me. Anyway I use a system that's sounds remarkably similar to Buzzers method & I have to admit that I too have had great success. There are a few differences between mine & his though. I regularly walk away with somewhere between $900 & $1200 dollars in less than an hour & a half almost every time I play. I don't use BS though but before you start saying "Tsk, Tsk", let me explain. BS is mostly common sense if you actually know how to play 21. There are a few plays that are a little difficult to recognize but as an average I get about 85% accuracy to BS plays according to the casino verite program I have. In some circumstances I'll play against BS & win more than I loose. In other words I'm saying in some instances it's better to play against BS but the time has to be right.

I'll freely admit that card counts are more accurate in the long run than the method I use but my betting strategy let's me win quite a bit in the short term. I use what I call a "Base Bet", now someone else has probably already invented this idea & just calls it a different name but it works like this: Base Bet = Bankroll + Winnings / 40. My Bankroll is always 40 x Min. Bet. Now when the cards seem to be in my favor according to my "watch", I'll bet up to 3 x the base bet. Of course they don't always pan out but I get about 60% of those bets right. More than what I loose so my Bankroll & winnings continue to grow. Occaisonally I'll wager as much as 5 x Base bet when I think the cards really favor me. Anyway I too find card counting more work than what I want & I have yet to loose my entire bankroll.

I should also mention that I play at 6 deck games. Also when I "watch the cards" I take 1 thing into consideration 1.) the normal percentage of certain cards in the deck ( roughly 62% of cards will be 2-9, 31% will be "ten" cards, & 8% will be aces. I know, that's 101% not 100%. I did say roughly.). I can hear you right now " but that percentage will change the deeper in the shoe you go." & that's true but let me ask you this. How many of you have seen a shoe go much past halfway empty? Not many I bet. So all though the percentages change, they don't change enough to really have that much of an effect on this method of play or at least in the games I've played anyway.


I never go play if I'm depressed & I always try to play at top ability. It's strictly business when I step into the casino although I don't let them know that. The casino I play at is caesars Indiana ( riverboat ) & I'm about to start playing at the one in evansville too.
 

Cass

Well-Known Member
#25
Doktorhook said:
Hey guys,

I regularly walk away with somewhere between $900 & $1200 dollars in less than an hour & a half almost every time I play.
You sound like a typical ploppie who believes in voo doo betting strategies. Quit your day job and do this all day long. You should be able to retire in a few weeks. especially playing BS 85% correctly. Good luck. :D
 
#26
Cass said:
You sound like a typical ploppie who believes in voo doo betting strategies. Quit your day job and do this all day long. You should be able to retire in a few weeks. especially playing BS 85% correctly. Good luck. :D
Hey I understand what your saying but there's no reason to be negative. You can believe what I said or not, it doesn't matter to me. I told the truth about my experiences take it or leave it. There is one thing I forgot to mention in the previous post though & that is it doesn't work when one on one with the dealer. You have to be able to see enough of the tens to get a pattern for what's happening. Like I said, I know it's not as accurate as counting but it has worked for me & apparently a similar strategy has worked for Buzzer.

By the way can you tell me how what I'm doing is voodoo betting? If you'll notice my base bet always stays at 1/40th my total bank, no matter what it is. Maybe that's too much risk for you but you can't win any money if you don't bet it.
 

ScottH

Well-Known Member
#27
Doktorhook said:
In other words I'm saying in some instances it's better to play against BS but the time has to be right.
How do you know when the time is right to change your bet? The answer to that question is card counting.

Doktorhook said:
By the way can you tell me how what I'm doing is voodoo betting?
Because you aren't a card counter and you don't even play correct BS. If you don't count cards and only play BS (even worse is 85% BS), no betting strategy will overcome the house edge. Sure you will have a few really nice wins in the shortrun, but if you keep doing what you're doing for long enough you WILL lose it all. I'm not saying that to be negative, I'm saying it hoping that you realize you're playing a losing system and quit playing it ASAP.
 

Cass

Well-Known Member
#28
Doktorhook said:
By the way can you tell me how what I'm doing is voodoo betting?

.There is one thing I forgot to mention in the previous post though & that is it doesn't work when one on one with the dealer. You have to be able to see enough of the tens to get a pattern for what's happening.

OH, so if you see enough of the tens then you know it is a good time to raise your bet?
 
#29
Doktorhook said:
Hey I understand what your saying but there's no reason to be negative. You can believe what I said or not, it doesn't matter to me. I told the truth about my experiences take it or leave it. There is one thing I forgot to mention in the previous post though & that is it doesn't work when one on one with the dealer. You have to be able to see enough of the tens to get a pattern for what's happening. Like I said, I know it's not as accurate as counting but it has worked for me & apparently a similar strategy has worked for Buzzer.

By the way can you tell me how what I'm doing is voodoo betting? If you'll notice my base bet always stays at 1/40th my total bank, no matter what it is. Maybe that's too much risk for you but you can't win any money if you don't bet it.
Why not just listen to us man? I usually play with a 1.3% advantage and I can plan on playing 18,000 hands before I can expect to be ahead of the game. This is verified with mathematics and billions of hands played on a simulator. All of the other counters participating in this discussion do a similar thing with similar results. There is a procedure for doing this and we're willing to teach you if you are willing to listen.
 
#30
Cass said:
OH, so if you see enough of the tens then you know it is a good time to raise your bet?
Close but not exact. Although I shouldn't because you're being sarcastic, I'll give you an example. Let's say your setting at second base. 1st base gets a 7 on the first go around & an 8 on the second for a total of 15, 2nd base gets a 2 the first pass & a "K" the second pass for 12, 3rd base gets two 9's, & the dealer gets a 10 & a 7. First base hits get's a 6 for 21, 2nd base hits gets a 4 for 16 hit's again gets a 9 for a total of 25; bust, 3rd base stands for obvious reasons ( although there is actually decent reason to split because only two "ten" cards have popped up at this point & since there is a 31% chance that a ten card will pop up at any time the odds are great that at least 1 more ten will come up & therefore double his money. They're out of ratio up until this point so there's good reason to believe they may infact come up.) The dealer obviously stands.

In the very next deal there will with almost certainty be more tens for everyone including the dealer. If that's not the time to raise your bet I don't know when is. You have a statisticly higher chance to get more than 1 ten than at any other time. True it's a gamble but card counting isn't exact either. It's just a really good educated guess. Will you win? You might or you might not it's like basic strategy when your supposed to double down & winde up loseing. Chances are good that you'll win or at the least push with the dealer though but you still can lose. If the next hand is still disproportionately heavy with number cards I can just about guarantee that the next deal will be full of tens.

I don't increase my bet just because I see alot of tens in the current hand. If anything I would decrease it to my base bet as there is still a chance I can win. It's a little tricky but you can cause the dealer to bust also if you had a slightly disproportionate amount of numbered cards turn up the previous deal. Try to get as close to 17 as you can with out busting & when it gets back to the dealer if they have 12 to 16 you can bust them & still win. It doesn't work all the time as there are several factors involved. None that i care to discuss with you because so far you been less than friendly & I don't feel obliged to tell you anymore than I have. Knock it if you want buddy but it does work if you know what your doing.
 
#31
Automatic Monkey said:
Why not just listen to us man? I usually play with a 1.3% advantage and I can plan on playing 18,000 hands before I can expect to be ahead of the game. This is verified with mathematics and billions of hands played on a simulator. All of the other counters participating in this discussion do a similar thing with similar results. There is a procedure for doing this and we're willing to teach you if you are willing to listen.

I'm more than willing to listen, I didn't say anything about not doing that. I found someone doing a similar thing to what I was doing, he was having success & I just chimed in with "Hey he's right, I do it too & have had similar results." I never said anything like "card counting sucks", "It's worthless", or anything like that. In fact I even said that card counting actually does better than what I do in the long run. I don't do any sort "voo Doo betting", martingales, or anything like that either. if you look at my base bet explanation it makes sense & I don't make decisions just based on how "lucky" I feel. I do try to make bets according to what I've seen on the table. Isn't that what you supposed to do? Like I said, everything I said was true, perhaps I shouldn't have said how much success I've had. Maybe that's what pissed Cass off I don't know. In any case I'll drop it & never say anything about it again. I didn't come here to cause problems.
 
#32
Sorry scott didn't see your reply, I'll get to it now

ScottH said:
How do you know when the time is right to change your bet? The answer to that question is card counting.
Though not as accurate as counting, by knowing what the ratio of the cards are to each other, I can get a fairly accurate idea of when to do that. I've been successfully doing it so it must be somewhat accurate.



Because you aren't a card counter and you don't even play correct BS. If you don't count cards and only play BS (even worse is 85% BS), no betting strategy will overcome the house edge. Sure you will have a few really nice wins in the shortrun, but if you keep doing what you're doing for long enough you WILL lose it all. I'm not saying that to be negative, I'm saying it hoping that you realize you're playing a losing system and quit playing it ASAP.
I understand what you're saying & I truly appreciate the advice but my experience has been different. I can't ignore the amount I've won so far when it has repeatedly & consistently worked. I can't prove what I've won from a casino to you but I can email you a series of session statistics from casino verite if you would like. I play by the exact rules of the local riverboat 6 deck game. I don't know how else I can prove it to you.
 

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#33
Dok, I'd have two beefs with your pseudo-system.

One is that it seems to only account for one hand of cards at a time. It has no "memory" And you're playing in a riverboat 6d shoe game, so you're going to see lots of hands per shoe. This means that you're observing symptoms of the cards, but not the cause. So sure, you may see a lot of baby cards on the table, but maybe it was because two hands previously there had been a ton of high cards several hands again, and the count may still be very unfavorable, but you'd be lulled into a false sense of ballsiness.

In a single deck game at a full table where you may only get two rounds anyway, this wouldn't be an issue as much.

The second concern is overbetting. Now, 40 units is a great amount if you want to go out for a long evening and flat bet and have some fun. But if you're actually talking about a more serious "gambling bankroll", then it's pretty damn aggressive. Even worse is when you start making big bets of 3-5 units. Suddenly, you've only got 8 units available (each bet is 12% of your payroll). Just last week I had a dealer draw to 21 seven times in a row (when the count was favorable, how well would those bets fare in that circumstance?

For comparison, I'm overbetting too, only because my bankroll is currently small and very replenishable. I have 300 units if min betting, and 30 if max betting. I think that puts me at over 3% Kelly, which would probably give some of the pros here a stroke.
 
#34
Doktorhook said:
Close but not exact. Although I shouldn't because you're being sarcastic, I'll give you an example. Let's say your setting at second base. 1st base gets a 7 on the first go around & an 8 on the second for a total of 15, 2nd base gets a 2 the first pass & a "K" the second pass for 12, 3rd base gets two 9's, & the dealer gets a 10 & a 7. First base hits get's a 6 for 21, 2nd base hits gets a 4 for 16 hit's again gets a 9 for a total of 25; bust, 3rd base stands for obvious reasons ( although there is actually decent reason to split because only two "ten" cards have popped up at this point & since there is a 31% chance that a ten card will pop up at any time the odds are great that at least 1 more ten will come up & therefore double his money. They're out of ratio up until this point so there's good reason to believe they may infact come up.) The dealer obviously stands.

In the very next deal there will with almost certainty be more tens for everyone including the dealer....
Horse hockey.

According to your posts you are playing six deck shoes right? In a six deck shoe you start off with 96 out of 312, or 30.769% of the cards being 10's, right? In the scenario you just described you've dealt out 11 cards and 2 of them were 10's so now 94 out of 301 cards are 10's. You've gone from 30.769% to a fabulous 31.229% of the cards being 10's. Wow you're right, that's what I call "almost certainty!"

We don't even start to think about raising our bets until there is one extra high card per deck left in the shoe. But you're too smart for us so why share this brilliant system- just keep it to yourself and make a ton of money on the riverboats.
 
#35
Discussion Etiquette And Being receptive

Why is it that so many posters feel the need to be insulting? I believe a forum should be a place to discuss different strategies - without fear of being insulted!

I did note that the senior members at least are respectfull in their responses. That is as it should be.

I'm not a mathmetician but I do have an advanced degree and have taken courses in Calculus and Probabilities & Statistics. I refrain from throwing out unsupported numbers. I've noticed a number of posters throw out percentages which are obiviously opinions and guesses.

In this thread someone stated they did not expect to win until they've played 18,000 hands. Seems to me that if you are playing at an advantage it would begin to show results long before 18,000 hands.

I did run a binomial probability on my results. Even with a 50% chance on each hand (would actually be a 49.67% chance), the probability of my results is 0.00%. If I'm just lucky - I'm damn lucky!


-Buzzer
 
#36
Easyrhino,

First thank you for being respectful. I'll try to answer your questions the best that I can.

One is that it seems to only account for one hand of cards at a time. It has no "memory" And you're playing in a riverboat 6d shoe game, so you're going to see lots of hands per shoe.
This is somewhat true, I do focus more on the current deal but I try to account for what I've seen in the past though as much as possible. This usually amounts to about the last 2 or 3 previous hands & your right about seeing lots of hands from the shoe obviously.

This means that you're observing symptoms of the cards, but not the cause. So sure, you may see a lot of baby cards on the table, but maybe it was because two hands previously there had been a ton of high cards several hands again, and the count may still be very unfavorable, but you'd be lulled into a false sense of ballsiness.
This does happen & I do lose bets because of it but if you take the percentage of types of cards into account along with watching the cards, you can offset this to some degree. Some of those symptoms actually pan out . I average about a 51.4% win rate betting the way I do. But it does lure me in with a false sense of ballsiness from time to time. BS does this too though, I should point out, as in the example I gave previously.

In a single deck game at a full table where you may only get two rounds anyway, this wouldn't be an issue as much.
Believe it or not, playing one on one with the dealer is a problem for the way I play as I can't see enough of the cards to get an accurate idea of what trend the cards are in. I have yet to successfully apply it to a one on one situation. Optimaly it works best at a table where 1 or 2 others are playing & 1st or 2nd base seems to be the best spots so far. From these positions you can pretty much guess accurately enough to make proper betting decisions.

The second concern is overbetting. Now, 40 units is a great amount if you want to go out for a long evening and flat bet and have some fun. But if you're actually talking about a more serious "gambling bankroll", then it's pretty damn aggressive.
Your absolutely right on both accounts. That's why my base bet is always 1/40th my bankroll. Now mind you I don't bet 3 to 5 times my base bet all the time. I hate to make an estimate as to how often I do raise my bet because it depends on what I percieve the cards doing. If I had to make a guess though it would be about 1/4th of all bets or a little less. I don't play as conservatively as Buzzer. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying anything negative about the way he does it. That's his way. I just believe if I'm going to make decent money you have to be willing to make the bets bigger as often as I percieve that I can.

For comparison, I'm overbetting too, only because my bankroll is currently small and very replenishable. I have 300 units if min betting, and 30 if max betting. I think that puts me at over 3% Kelly, which would probably give some of the pros here a stroke.
Idon't know what "kelley" is but I think I get the gist of what your saying. 300 units = the long haul betting whereas 30 units = very short term betting with larger bets.

Again thank you for being respectfull.
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#37
concerning Buza & Doc's posts

when i first started out attempting advantage play i used somewhat similar ploys. i also had some excellent results. i was 'watching' the cards and would bet up when i had a 'sense' that the remaining pack was richer in aces and faces. sometimes i'd bet up pretty darn high. i've also deviated from basic strategy to the point where it was similar to the 'never bust' and 'play like the dealer' systems that are known to be highly disadvantageous for the player.
still had exellent results for about seven months or so. the thing is though there were some heavy duty swings of positve and negative results. continuing my study of advantage play i came to realize that what ever advantage i was really playing at was really small and that i had been experiencing a lot of good luck.
so i decided to protect the bankroll i had developed (as a result of my good luck) by knuckling down and practicing and studying until i could really accuately count and make proper plays with optimal bets.

best regards,
mr fr0g :D
 
#38
Automatic Monkey,

Horse hockey.
Wrong. If it were truly horse hockey it wouldn't work & it does.
Experimentation will prove it.

According to your posts you are playing six deck shoes right? In a six deck shoe you start off with 96 out of 312, or 30.769% of the cards being 10's, right? In the scenario you just described you've dealt out 11 cards and 2 of them were 10's so now 94 out of 301 cards are 10's. You've gone from 30.769% to a fabulous 31.229% of the cards being 10's. Wow you're right, that's what I call "almost certainty!"
Although your percentages are right in their context, the last sentence is taken totally out of context. Firstly, if you'll look closely at what I said, I used "Almost certainty" with the third deal after recieving almost nothing but number cards, not the second inwhich you indirectly place it, & yes according to the percentage roughly every 3rd card should be a "10". If you have two full hands of play with let's say only 3 "10's" popping up, there should be a much higher percentage of "10's" coming up in the 3rd hand. It's certainly not impossible that it won't happen but it is unlikely. Of course this all assumes that the cards were mixed completely & the cards were distributed evenly throughout the deck. This doesn't always happen & I suspect it's the cause of some failures that happens in any system.

We don't even start to think about raising our bets until there is one extra high card per deck left in the shoe. But you're too smart for us so why share this brilliant system- just keep it to yourself and make a ton of money on the riverboats
Whoa trigger! If you don't like the way I do it don't do it. I'm not twisting your arm here & saying "it's the only way." Once again I just decided to throw my 2 chips into the conversation because Buzzer seems to have a similar method & it works for him too. Maybe 2 people on here saying that they're winning without card counts seems threatening to some of you or perhaps seems ridiculous. I personaly don't care in any case, I won't lose any sleep over it. The fact remains that I have successfully & regularly taken the casino's money in much larger sums than I began with without card counts.
I am beginning to think you're right though & not have said anything to anyone here. So please "forgive" me for telling you about my results & method. What a way to greet new members!
 
#39
Buzzer said:
Why is it that so many posters feel the need to be insulting? I believe a forum should be a place to discuss different strategies - without fear of being insulted!

I did note that the senior members at least are respectfull in their responses. That is as it should be.

I'm not a mathmetician but I do have an advanced degree and have taken courses in Calculus and Probabilities & Statistics. I refrain from throwing out unsupported numbers. I've noticed a number of posters throw out percentages which are obiviously opinions and guesses.

In this thread someone stated they did not expect to win until they've played 18,000 hands. Seems to me that if you are playing at an advantage it would begin to show results long before 18,000 hands.

I did run a binomial probability on my results. Even with a 50% chance on each hand (would actually be a 49.67% chance), the probability of my results is 0.00%. If I'm just lucky - I'm damn lucky!


-Buzzer
Although I haven't taken course in statistics & probabilities & I too am not a mathematician, I concur with what you last said: "If I'm just lucky, I'm damn lucky!" Now I'm not saying that some modicum of luck isn't involved but come on people, if you win session after session that strains the idea that more luck is involved that skill when using a similar system to what we have apparently been doing.
 
#40
sagefr0g said:
when i first started out attempting advantage play i used somewhat similar ploys. i also had some excellent results. i was 'watching' the cards and would bet up when i had a 'sense' that the remaining pack was richer in aces and faces. sometimes i'd bet up pretty darn high. i've also deviated from basic strategy to the point where it was similar to the 'never bust' and 'play like the dealer' systems that are known to be highly disadvantageous for the player.
still had exellent results for about seven months or so. the thing is though there were some heavy duty swings of positve and negative results. continuing my study of advantage play i came to realize that what ever advantage i was really playing at was really small and that i had been experiencing a lot of good luck.
so i decided to protect the bankroll i had developed (as a result of my good luck) by knuckling down and practicing and studying until i could really accuately count and make proper plays with optimal bets.

best regards,
mr fr0g :D
I sincerely thank you for your input & for not being an asshole like some of the others. Again thank you.
 
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