shadroch said:
Where are you coming up with these figures?One in a hundred martingalers will make four times their money? That makes no sense. Four times what money?Are you claiming that 1% of people who martingale will be successful in the long run? Based on what?
I never said anything about being successful 'in the long run'. I said if you martingale some amount of money, you have a 1 in 3 chance to double it, 1 in 100 chance to 4x it and 1 in 1000 chance to 7x it. This was off the top of my head.
If a game is 50.5% to win and 49.5% chance to loose, and you are playing martingale lets say you have $75, so the bets are $5 10 20 40. To double your money you need to not loose 4 games in a row a total of 75/5=15 times to win 15*5 = $75. The chance of not loosing 4 games in a row is 1-(0.505^4) = 93.49%. Doing this 15 times in a row is 0.9349^15=36.43%. So therefore 36.43% of people who attempt to double their money on a martingale progression succeed.
It also follows that 36.43% of that 36.43% will double their money again.
So to make 4 times your money it would be 0.3643^4=1.76%. Thats 1 in 56 people trying this progression will win 4 times their money, so if they started with $75 they will walk away with $300 won plus their 75.
All that I am saying is that the odds of some one being successful are not 'astronomical'. I know several people who play basic strategy and progression who have not yet lost their starting money. Its called standard deviation and variance.