Successful Non-Counters

[DC15]

Anyone know of any famous BJ players who are non counters and successful, I really only know of Donald Dahl because I have his book. I have no interest in card counting due to the fact that it is very hard to pull off these days with multiple decks and CSM's, I also like to keep it simple and fun.

DC

 

[shadroch]

There are plenty of successful non-counters. But they all hole-card,shuffle-track or do something to gain the advantage.The odds of someone being successful playing BJ without something to wipe out the house edge are astronomical. Progressions of any type don't wipe out the house edge.

 

[dacium]

The odds are hardly astronomical...

For example even if you use martingale you still have about a 33% chance of doubling your money. So one in every hundred people who use martingale will make over 4 times their money. One in every 1000 will make 7 times their money.

Now compare a card counter. 'proper' bank roll is about $12,000 to make $9 per hour, thats over 1300 hours of play just to double your money.

 

[shadroch]

The odds are hardly astronomical...

For example even if you use martingale you still have about a 33% chance of doubling your money. So one in every hundred people who use martingale will make over 4 times their money. One in every 1000 will make 7 times their money.

Now compare a card counter. 'proper' bank roll is about $12,000 to make $9 per hour, thats over 1300 hours of play just to double your money.

Where are you coming up with these figures?One in a hundred martingalers will make four times their money? That makes no sense. Four times what money?Are you claiming that 1% of people who martingale will be successful in the long run? Based on what?

 

[QFIT]

Anyone know of any famous BJ players who are non counters and successful, I really only know of Donald Dahl because I have his book. I have no interest in card counting due to the fact that it is very hard to pull off these days with multiple decks and CSM's, I also like to keep it simple and fun.

DC

What makes you think Dahl is successful? Because he said so? Progression strategies cannot give you an advantage.

 

[dacium]

Where are you coming up with these figures?One in a hundred martingalers will make four times their money? That makes no sense. Four times what money?Are you claiming that 1% of people who martingale will be successful in the long run? Based on what?

I never said anything about being successful 'in the long run'. I said if you martingale some amount of money, you have a 1 in 3 chance to double it, 1 in 100 chance to 4x it and 1 in 1000 chance to 7x it. This was off the top of my head.

If a game is 50.5% to win and 49.5% chance to loose, and you are playing martingale lets say you have $75, so the bets are $5 10 20 40. To double your money you need to not loose 4 games in a row a total of 75/5=15 times to win 15*5 = $75. The chance of not loosing 4 games in a row is 1-(0.505^4) = 93.49%. Doing this 15 times in a row is 0.9349^15=36.43%. So therefore 36.43% of people who attempt to double their money on a martingale progression succeed.

It also follows that 36.43% of that 36.43% will double their money again.
So to make 4 times your money it would be 0.3643^4=1.76%. Thats 1 in 56 people trying this progression will win 4 times their money, so if they started with $75 they will walk away with $300 won plus their 75.

All that I am saying is that the odds of some one being successful are not 'astronomical'. I know several people who play basic strategy and progression who have not yet lost their starting money. Its called standard deviation and variance.

 

[EasyRhino]

Tournament players?

 

[Sonny]

If a game is 50.5% to win and 49.5% chance to loose…

The odds for BJ are slightly different. Excluding ties, the player will win 47% of the hands and lose 53% of the hands. That makes it a little tougher to beat the odds.

…you are playing martingale lets say you have $75, so the bets are $5 10 20 40. To double your money you need to not loose 4 games in a row

But that won’t double your money, it will only win you one unit. You would need to win 15 units to double your $75 bankroll. The chances of being ahead by 15 units are much worse than the chances of not losing 4 in a row.

As far as comparing it to card counting, it’s not fair to compare someone trying to win $5 to someone trying to win $12,000. You don’t consider the bankroll requirements for the progression player. To have a fair comparison they should both have the same amount of risk. If the card counter has a 1-in-20 chance of going broke (a 5% RoR) then you should give the progression player a big enough bankroll to have the same chances of success. Then you could fairly see who will take longer to double his bankroll.

Actually, this would be an interesting experiment...

-Sonny-

 

[shadroch]

I never said anything about being successful 'in the long run'. I said if you martingale some amount of money, you have a 1 in 3 chance to double it, 1 in 100 chance to 4x it and 1 in 1000 chance to 7x it. This was off the top of my head.

If a game is 50.5% to win and 49.5% chance to loose, and you are playing martingale lets say you have $75, so the bets are $5 10 20 40. To double your money you need to not loose 4 games in a row a total of 75/5=15 times to win 15*5 = $75. The chance of not loosing 4 games in a row is 1-(0.505^4) = 93.49%. Doing this 15 times in a row is 0.9349^15=36.43%. So therefore 36.43% of people who attempt to double their money on a martingale progression succeed.

It also follows that 36.43% of that 36.43% will double their money again.
So to make 4 times your money it would be 0.3643^4=1.76%. Thats 1 in 56 people trying this progression will win 4 times their money, so if they started with $75 they will walk away with $300 won plus their 75.

All that I am saying is that the odds of some one being successful are not 'astronomical'. I know several people who play basic strategy and progression who have not yet lost their starting money. Its called standard deviation and variance.

Its called bullshit,and you know it.
Its like telling someone they should quit when they are ahead.

 

[Mimosine]

Now compare a card counter. 'proper' bank roll is about $12,000 to make $9 per hour, thats over 1300 hours of play just to double your money.

$9 is well below the expectation for this sized bankroll. it isn't $100s of dollars an hour, but it sure as hell isn't $9. i would guess it is closer to $30/hour depending on rules, system, and style of play.

e.g. 1-4 spread in DD game using KO. a $25 min bet should yield at least $30/hour.

 

[rogue1]

Walter Thomason

Read Twenty First Century Blackjack: A New Strategy For A New Millennium by Walter Thomason.

 

[QFIT]

Read Twenty First Century Blackjack: A New Strategy For A New Millennium by Walter Thomason.

Read it if you want examples of gambler's logic. But don't read it if you want to understand anything about Blackjack.

 

[FUHGEDABOUDIT]

Walter Thomasons' Book

I have to wonder why so many people put down positive progression betting. Is it possible that its' simplicity would negate the need for tons of books,dvds,and various counts to be written about? hmmm?
Maybe Walter is trying to tell us that the world is round but we'll have none of it!
It kills me when a discussion starts about positive progressive betting and BAM! somebody immediately starts talking about Martingale. Hmmmm?

 

[QFIT]

I have to wonder why so many people put down positive progression betting. Is it possible that its' simplicity would negate the need for tons of books,dvds,and various counts to be written about? hmmm?
Maybe Walter is trying to tell us that the world is round but we'll have none of it!
It kills me when a discussion starts about positive progressive betting and BAM! somebody immediately starts talking about Martingale. Hmmmm?

I wonder why the casinos aren't all bankrupt.

 

[FUHGEDABOUDIT]

Yo Qfit

Perhaps the casinos aren't bankrupt because they have all those cardcounters putting out the big bet and losing.
??????

 

[QFIT]

Perhaps the casinos aren't bankrupt because they have all those cardcounters putting out the big bet and losing.
??????

Seriously, do you really think that there is a simple pattern that can beat the casino and yet hundreds of millions of people in thousands of casinos over centuries have never found it? There is a reason that LV has been the fastest growing city in the country for over a decade and major corporations have been buying casinos and raking in billions of dollars. Because there are books that promise trivial to use systems can beat the casinos and people that believe that math doesn't work.

 

[Sonny]

Perhaps the casinos aren't bankrupt because they have all those cardcounters putting out the big bet and losing.
??????

I've never heard of a progression player being barred, trespassed and put in the Griffin book. I guess the casino is too busy offering them free rooms. :grin:

-Sonny-

 

[FUHGEDABOUDIT]

Yo QFIT

Well, we have simple Basic Strategy-how many people are using it? There are simple counts, why aren't people using one of them?

 

[Sonny]

Well, we have simple Basic Strategy-how many people are using it?

None that I’ve seen. Most people are either lazy or they just don’t care enough to learn it.

There are simple counts, why aren't people using one of them?

Again, most people are either lazy or they just don’t care enough to learn it. People are looking for an easy way to get rich. That’s one reason they gamble. That’s one reason they play the lottery. It’s an easy way to have a chance without having to work for it. Most people think that counting cards takes the fun out of the game.

Another reason is because they are compulsive. Do you think that a compulsive gambler actually wants to sit down and study for hours each day when he could be in action at a casino?

This website alone is a good indication of how many people know proper BS and use simple counting systems. Why aren’t there more? That’s a good question. Why don’t you use a simple count system? What’s your reason for using a progression system instead? Maybe you can answer your own question.

-Sonny-

 

[FUHGEDABOUDIT]

Yo Sonny

I appreciate your well made points. I have used a count-Kiss III from Fred Renzeys' great book Blackjack Bluebook II. It's a good counting system-with that said I lost more in a single session using it than I ever lost before or after-which left me wondering if I could do just as well using Walter Thomasons Positive Progressive Betting System With Quit Points and do just as well without the mental stress of counting.Please understand-I'm certainly not saying that card counting doesn't work- I'm saying I sometimes wonder if it's that much more effective than Positive Progression Betting With Quit Points to make it worth the headaches-literal and figurative headaches.