the future, the other point of view and it looks bad

[Victoria]

Following discussions on 6/5 and other deteriorations of BJ rules, I find we always look at things from the AP point of view. We say if the casinos will not offer better games (that is code for games that can be beat) we will not play. Well guys, they really do not want us to play. During my recent trip to Vegas the 6/5 single deck tables were full of suckers, the CSM games actually had more ploppys than the hand shuffled games, and games like slots and roulette were busy. Folks, we are not their target audience and we never will be. If the uneducated players don't care and continue to play, if all the new games being introduced have 3% house edges and more, then I am not surprised that casinos study BJ rules, looking for ways that will increase their edge and keep the ploppys at the tables.
Some places offer better rules at higher stakes and though I am not an accountant, it is easily understandable to me. Take that house edge and figure what the "rental" is for your seat at a $5 flat bet for an hour. With 100 hands or $500 bet and an edge of 1% the house makes $5 per hour. They need to make more than that per seat. The places we like make the difference up quite often on the higher stakes players, but casino accountants might not look at it that way. On a higher stakes table, with an average bet of $100, or $10,000 bet per hour and an edge of only .5% they take a rental of $50 per hour, so they can afford better rules. The problem for us is that the same $10,000 on a slot probably makes them $500, over $100 for craps and so on.

If you threw out every machine from a casino and only had blackjack tables, with rules that we like, you probably would have very few casinos. I really think that even with their bad rules, ownership feels that they are keeping blackjack alive as a tradition and income from other games is supporting it.

So at 31 years old, planning to be a partimer for a very long time, you will have to pardon me for wondering if this opportunity will last.

Victoria

 

[learning to count]

It is the sin of gambling. People who gamble are degenerates. A degenerate is someone who will destroy his life in order to persue his addiction. The casinos are part of the sin. They offer the addiction that destroys the suckers. We as AP's are also addicted to the game. The differance is that we are addicted to winning. We strive to play games that give us the edge. The casinos and us are on both sides of the greed element of this game. We both want money but we crave the road getting there. Eventually the game will get better or disappear as we know it. Dont fret Victoria there will always be a AP who finds out how to beat the game.

 

[Alexander Mundy]

The market might correct it....

tho I wouldn't "count" on it. Even tho most ploppies don't know the "vig" of most games, they will know, perhaps not individually, but collectively, that they are losing more and faster. They will not have as much fun - playing time -for their money. So, again collectively, a percentage of players will make fewer trips to the casinos and play less BJ. Then, the theory goes, a casinos, trying to fill the empty seats, will offer better games, 7/5 BJ, and eventually 3/2 SD will make a comeback on the strip. (I remember when the strip was mostly SD). Of course I've been waiting for that to happen in Reno (where I reside) for a few years now. In Reno, where business has dropped precipitously and a dozen casinos have closed, they are doing the opposite - worse games, tighter comps, and quicker barrings. The result is empty casinos. I've had this discussion with a few casino executives - on the surface they seem to understand it - maybe even agree with it, but to no avail (the Siena made it's game DOA after a discussion tho I doubt if I persuaded them - they don't let me play anyway - or at least they think that they don't let me play). The horse racing industry has nearly imploded by onerous takeout rates, over 20% including breakage, and has only been saved by simulcasting and slot machines at racetracks. Again, the average horseplayer doesn't know what the takeout is, but they do know that they go broke faster. Unfortuneatly, the market hasn't corrected racing yet either. Even tho NY lowered it's takeout by 3%. The future is rarely as bleak as it appears, there are still a lot of players out there making money playing BJ. Even tho, hit them as hard and as often as possible now - just in case the future really is bleak.

 

[SammyBoy]

I Wish I Could Find the Post...

There was an older gentleman that has been playing BJ since the 60's that posted (somewhere) that he remembers thinking back then that the game of BJ would not continue as a beatable game for very much longer. Now 40 years later we are wondering the same thing. It seems to me that in the places I play, the games are better now than they were 5 years ago. Maybe one day BJ will die, but I'd bet you that it will live much longer than any of us think it will.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

We have to look at it this way- we are getting something for nothing now. We are getting paid while providing no useful service to anyone, just because we have certain skills that most don't. On the other hand, the casinos do the same thing.

We are not the problem, in the large casinos me and a hundred guys like me could play every night and they wouldn't miss the money. The problem as I see it is slots. If the Indian casinos in CT had their way there would be nothing but slots. The state of CT takes a 25% vig on all slot revenues in exchange for not putting slot machines in parimutuel facilities, and they still can't stuff slots in there fast enough. The reason is the high cost of Northeastern labor. Every year they import a few thousand workers from Poland to work in those casinos because they can't find locals willing to work for their wage, and slots require very little labor. They can also set them to pay whatever they want.

Anyway there are still plenty of good games out there if you play shoe. The other side is they are replacing normal BJ with those bullshit derivatives. I can't believe how many people play Spanish 21. That game can be beat, but not by enough margin to make it worth it.

 

[Victoria]

Yes, we basically are insignificant, the bad rules are not directed at us.

I agree that we do little to effect the bottom line of casinos. The point I wanted to make that casino execs even if there were no AP's would still be looking for ways to increase their take on BJ, or as you said, keep introducing variations of the game that have increased edges. They are in business to make money, as much money as possible, as quickly as possible without chasing the ploppys and high rolling types away.
Slots are a great example, no sick days, no benifits, no retirement, no salary,just initial investment and maintenance and the money steadily comes in.
I really do not think the new bad rules in blackjack have anything to do with us but we definately are effected by it.

Currently I think that in order not to chase away their biggest players, the rules for BJ at $25 min and above, are better than the red chip rules in many places. At the same time, green and black chip tables get closer looks from the pit, counters need better cover at these levels and some of us for many reasons do not play at those stakes. A red chip player looking for a decent game needs to do their research to find these games. How the game changes in the future is probably up to those black, purple, and above players, if they balk at bad rules, the houses will do something to make sure they do not go somewhere else. As far as the red chip goes, as I said in my first post, the house just does not make enough to justify renting that seat with a low edge.

 

[Stealth Bomber]

You said:

We are getting paid while providing no useful service to anyone, just because we have certain skills that most don't.

It's the "skills" that we have that allows us to beat certain games. This creates the buzz out there in the gaming world, that it is in fact possible to sit down at a table and win $ time after time. Any player that hears of what it is that we are able to do, will assume that they can, maybe, just possibly do similarly the same by giving it a try with the knowledge they possess. Therefore, essentially we are more of a benefit to the industry than a detriment.

Stealth

 

[wong out]

As long as I have been playing (maybe 12 yrs or so) its been nothing but its the end! But I am still playing and games conditions improve and decline. I cant predict the future but suggest that as long as you can play with an acceptable edge...go for it. As the saying goes ..."if it swells..ride it!"

wong out

 

[John Lewis]

red can pay rent at older places only

< As far as the red chip goes, as I said in my first post, the house just does not make enough to justify renting that seat with a low edge. >

Red blackjack with standard (fair) rules definitely can't pay the mortgage of new places, most definitely not on the Strip.

But there are still good red games to be had at older places that don't have the mortgage payments. Downtown Vegas and Reno/Northern Nevada are the most notable examples. Hopefully there will always be enough money to be made at good red games to pay the bills at low overhead places like these.